Nintendo probably needs to sell between 2 Million and 2.5 million systems in the first 3 months of the year to meet their shipment projections. What I see as their problem is that there isn't any real big games to take a chunk out of that number and make it easy to attain; after all, if they had a couple of big games they might only need to average 125,000 per week through most of the period to make their goal.
Of course, if some of the TBA and Q1 2013 games that were initially launch window games actually get released before the fiscal year end, and Nintendo does a press conference and announces a few games that will be released in Q2, they could have strong enough sales to meet their goal. On the other hand, if too many games get their release date pushed back and/or Nintendo holds off game releases until after E3 I expect them to fall short of their shipment goal.
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