I think Nintendo will be whipping the horses to get this out by December of next year.
A 3D Mario from EAD Tokyo and even whatever Retro is working on is OK, but neither are likely to drive hardware sales the way a Mario Kart would, as it appeals to virtually everyone.
My guess is it will sell 11-12 million WW and will be the best selling Wii U game outside of the bundled Nintendo Land.