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man-bear-pig said:

From looking at the prediction Fred I made, the general consensus seems to be that Ninty shipped 500k+ Wii U's in the USA for its 1st week. However, from looking at this weeks pre-order chart, the most highly pre-ordered Wii U launch game is NSMBU with 114,207 copies.

Given that 95%+ (MBP's estimation) of Wii U's shipments were pre-ordered, it's seems strange to me that there are such low pre-order numbers for the launch games. The other day I saw someone say that they expect 50% of Wii U buyers to buy NSMBU as a launch game, which seems like a reasonable % to me. So if 114,207 are pre-ordering NSMBU, then this indicates that ~230,000 have pre-ordered the Wii U in the US.

Are VGChartz NSMBU numbers (along with all other Wii U launch titles) undertracked? Or are consumers simply pre-ordering the Wii U and buying launch games like NSMBU when they collect their pre-order (aka not actually pre-ordering it)?

Have we overestimated the Wii U's 1st week shipments in the US and they've actually shipped around 250k-300k?

trusting that number is your first mistake..