New Super Mario Bros Wii will likely attain a 10-25% lifetime attach rate on Wii...
The question is whether Wii gets to 120m or a bit more.
By the end of March 2010 Wii will be at 70.5m on 20m units shipped in April 2009-March 2010. Even with steep and annual 30% drops Wii is getting past 100m easy. You get to 114m that way before sales drop under 1m/year worldwide.
Based on low hw and a low attach rate the worst case scenario is probably 114 * 0.15 for NSMB Wii - 17m.
With even 20% declines and a 20% attach rate the situation is completely different. You'd get to 144m that way - and a slightly higher 20% attach rate would put NSMB Wii at 29m worldwide.
125m * 1/6 Wii owners buying NSMB Wii seems about right lifetime.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
