Will Killzone 2 suffer as Resistance 2 has? Prediction thread.

[Kantor]

starcraft said:

makingmusic476 said:

starcraft said:

makingmusic476 said:

Killzone 2 will probably sell no more than 500k the first week, if not much less. However, I would not be surprised if the game had Call of Duty 4-like legs due to word of mouth, and ended up outselling the title overall after a few years.

Also, just because Resistance 2 didn't sell like Gears of War 2 or Call of Duty: World at War at launch (two MUCH larger franchises) doesn't mean it flopped. It reviewed in the 8s, and is selling like a pretty good AA shooter should. It'll probably sell around 3 million when all is said and done, which isn't bad at all considering most sequels sell a bit less then their predecessors, except for sequels released on a new console (ie DMC4 vs DMC3 or MGS4 vs MGS3).

My only fear is that Killzone 2 could cut Resistance 2 off at the knees, but considering how well Halo 3, Call of Duty 4, and Bioshock sold on the 360 last year despite extremely close releases, they shouldn't hind each other much at all.

Also, what about the challenge I made on your wall!?!

I didn't say it bombed.  It certainly didn't match expectations though (broadly accepted ones).

You reckon Killzone 2 will top 3 million when all is said and done?  Ultimately, the PS3 isn't the software selling beast the Xbox 360 is, certainly not when you are comparing shooters.  For example, Gears of War 2 wasn't destroyed at the hands of CoD:WoW like Resistance 2 was.

As for your challenge, I accept it on one condition:

We only apportion any validity too it assuming Killzone 2 reaches a number of reviews close to that given for Fable 2.  The reason is Fable 2's score was dragged down a full four points over the course of the last twenty reviews or so.

So what would you consider to be a reasonable number of reviews given Fable 2 has 89, and a reasonable time period in which we wait for them?

 

I figured a month would be sufficient (ie the March 27th date I specified on your wall).  As far as a proper number of reviews...maybe 50? 60?  I'm not sure.  We could go for 2 months, if you'd like.

And not all games are dragged down significantly by later reviews.  MGS4 started off around a 93, and people said it would probably be AA when all was said and done.  It's now resting at a nice 94.  ;)

And then there's the rollercoaster taaht was LBP.  It started around at 100, dropped to 93, bumped up to 96, then settled around 95.

Call it sixty reviews then?  However long it takes to reach sixty reviews?

If you're willing, I'll wear a Killzone 2 avatar for a month if I lose, if you'd respond in kind with Fable 2 if you lose?

 

Copycats! Ronster316 and I had that bet ages before you!

Ah well. Now BOTH of us can win, eh, MM?

EDIT: Out of interest, what was the cutoff for your bet? You can see ours in my sig.
EDIT 2: Sorry, I'm blind. I suppose you have the same cutoff as us! But what if KZ2 doesn't get 60 reviews? o.O