I noticed that with all regions in for the week ending June 3, 2007, 360 is down to just over 46% worldwide marketshare.  My question is what do you think will be the peak marketshare for Wii and PS3, and the minimal marketshare for 360 (since it launched first 360 can never top the 100% share it had in 2005 of the 360/Wii/PS3 market, while PS3 and Wii can never hit 100% because 360 exists, and sells).  I would say 360 will see its post PS3 European launch peak this December when it is on x-mas three in all markets with games that appeal to all three markets.

Nintendo's marketshare I think will peak in 2008 or 2009, when all the games that are starting to be developed come out, and when is cheaper and has benefited from even more momentum.  PS3 I think will have one quick 2007-Wii sales like peak when it gets to a much lower price, before it gets shoved to the side as the people who support it now for technical prowess get hot and heavy with the next-generation.

Basically, I have PS3 bottoming out in early 2008 after getting far less sales over the holidays than Wii or 360, and peaking in marketshare in late 2009, and once more at the end of the generation.  360 I think peaks this December, before steadily dropping in overall marketshare the rest of the generation, at first slowly because just Wii will be outselling it, but then more once PS3 outsells it worldwide, except very late when it becomes very cheap. Below I have my LTD sales estimation (x% - peak for year, y% min for year).  Note that I have LTD generation sales at 200 million...bold numbers equal 100% at one point of the year, italics numbers equal 100% at the other point of the year..assuming all peaks and lows happened at the same time..

Year     360                    Wii                   PS3         

2005  100%

2006  (100%, 67%)     (22%,0%)        (11%, 0%) 

2007   (67%,36%)      (46%, 22%)     (18%, 11%)  (42 million ltd)

2008   (36%,29%)       (51%, 46%)     (20%,18%)  

2009   (29%, 22%)      (51%, 50%)     (27%, 20%)   (110 million ltd)

2010   (26%, 22%)      (50%, 48%)     (27%, 26%)    (140 million ltd)

2011   (26%, 25%)       (48%, 45%)    (30%, 26%)    (170 million ltd)

2012   (28%, 25%)       (45%, 40%)     (32%, 30%)    (200 million ltd)

Final  28% - 56 million    40% - 80 million     32% - 64 million

Honestly I don't think the Wii will be around in 2011. Nintendo will have released the Wii 2 or something better by then. And the PS3 isn't going to sell that much until it reduces its price by 50%. And Microsoft will definitely have released their next console by 2011. I think by 2010, Sony might have reduced the price of the PS3 to $250. That is basically the price of Nintendo's next console (Wii 2 "Now you're playing with power"), and you can buy a Wii for $99 anyway, so why buy a PS3?

Here's my predictions (i used 150 mil for the total, and 2011 as the last year)

Year 360 Wii PS3

2005 100%

2006 (67%) (22%) (11%)

2007 (40%) (44%) (16%)

2008 (38%) (45%) (17%)

2009 (32%) (48%) (20%)

2010 (26%) (50%) (20%)

2011 (25%) (60%) (15%)

Final 37.5m 90m 22.5m

I post this only for 2011:

Amerika: Wii 40% X360 32% PS3 28%
Japan: Wii 48% X360 6% PS3 46%
Europe: Wii 42% X360 22% PS3% 36%

But in fact who will know what wil the market be then..Maybe there will be already a X720..

Its hard to say ...

I think that the Japaneese market has been forever changed by the DS and Wii so I wouldn't expect the Wii to fall below 75% market share there. In North America the DS never had the same kind of impact as it did in Japan but (from what I have seen) the Wii is altering and expanding the market; as a result, I expect the Wii to gain 60% of the market at its peak and then to fall to (roughly) 50%. I know nothing about "the other" regions.

Ultimately, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wii sitting at 60%-66% marketshare late 2008 worldwide, eventually dropping to 50% - 60% worldwide in 2011.

I don't think the wii will be replaced.

It only serves one purpose - fun games

once that has been achieved nothing else will matter, unless a company manages to build something funner then the wii.

Well, I dont think the Wii will be replaced until 2012. While many say that Nintendo will shift to an HD Wii, that is not going to happen before 2012. Their next console will probably be a combination of NOW PS3 graphics with more elements to widen the market and appeal to casual gamers and still priced low.

However, I dont know what to expect for the next-gen, especially if the Mayans and NASA are correct...

Here is my market share % chart for the entire year.

The numbers up to June 3 are exactly from this site.

From June 3 on the chart calculates a rolling 7 weeks sales trend. So it is more or less basing the rest of the year off of the last seven weeks of sales.

For three decades we've all accepted the cycle of launch console/play for 5-7 years/replace console. I think Nintendo has positioned themselves to be more reactive, agile, and is going to change that. Rather than throw all the horsepower at the devs and end users up front and force the early adopters to both foot the bill on production and eat the cost of depreciation, I see Nintendo's approach of targetting a price point and keeping the machine at a performance/production level equal to that price. Much like the DS phat was replaced with the DS lite, I think the Wii will see colors, then DVD, then possibly a bump in WiFi range or Bluetooth connectivity, a change in the  sensor bar configuration, a "fix" for GameCube titles and channel caching so that menu navigation is faster all around, etc etc ... These will all be incremental bumps that each make the Wii a little bit better, but nothing that breaks backwards compatibility or disrupts the software library.

Whatever Nintendo does to the console, whether minor performance changes or cosmetic changes, it'll always be called the Wii and it'll always be $249 (or thereabouts) and it'll always be a good value. Nintendo will continue to make it for as long as people will buy (and re-buy) it. It'll be much like the iPod model: From adding touch-sensitive dials to bigger harddrives and batteries to color displays to video, whether its a first generation brick or a fourth generation brick or a mini or a shuffle ... they're all simply, 'iPods'.

By the end of this cycle, I think both Wii's and DS'es sales numbers will be irrelevent ... and obscene.

Hah. Never thought of it like that. Its possible!

when does this gen end ?

Sonys 10 years talk, 360 likly quick death or will wii2 be counted as one console with the wii ?