By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate (Currently 17.68mil) Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

Wright on 11 July 2018
Nautilus said:

Sakurai sees them as separate entries because they were two projects to him(as a developer).Dosent change that the very few differences betwenn them makes them more like different versions of the same game, like it was a multiplatform game, rather than separate games.Given that, Smash 4 sold around 13 million units, about the same as the big sellers Nintendo had in the past.So the potential is there.

And while its fine that you think like that, its a rather simplistic way to view things Wright.Using past records and data to try to understand future events is fine and even necessary, but lowballing that the Switch is breaking every kinds of records, be them hardware related or software related, is extremely vital and makes predictions based on past entry sales somewhat unreliable.The Switch effect, as Ill call it just for making things easier, is exponentially increasing the sales of existing franchises.BOTW is already the best selling Zelda entry to date.Oddyssey will be definelly.XC2, as of 31th March, has sold 30% more than any of the other entries AND is the best selling Xeno game.And Mario Kart is selling better than the original entry by far, and there are certainly people like me, in a significant number, that havent bought the game simply because we have already bought the original game(which skews your argument too).And Im not even mentioning the high interest in software in general in the Switch(Third parties sales and stuff)

Honestly, I wouldnt even be surprised if Smash 5 managed to sell 10 millions(shipped  digital) in 1 month.

This is mostly because like I said, I entered this thread without any prediction in mind. I checked Nintendo's hardware/software sales from their webpage and worked a prediction from there, which I've repeatedly stated I don't mind modifying conforming Odyssey's/MK8DX's continuous sales in the charts.

What I confidently say is no chance of Smash Ultimate selling 25m, and I am willing to bet about it.



Asriel on 11 July 2018

Ballsy prediction, but I don't think it's going to happen. I can see Smash Ultimate becoming the best-selling Smash Bros game yet, but my personal prediction is around 15 million life-time; I expect Ultimate to smash (cough) the 10 million mark within the first month, though. Odssey looks a good bet for 15 million lifetime, so I don't see any reason why Smash can't make it.

According to Nintendo's figures, Smash Bros Brawl outsold Galaxy by 500,000 units - 13.27 million v 12.77 million. Odyssey was at 10.41 million at the end of March, by way of comparison. I think Odyssey and Ultimate are going to end up in a similar ball-park - each around ~15 million units, with a gap of a few hundred thousand between the two.



Wyrdness on 11 July 2018
Wright said:
Wyrdness said:

He used to not consider Smash a fighting game but has changed his tune in recent years so I don't put much stock into what he considers as he's prone to change his mind later on. Smash could easily become the best selling Switch title I don't see how that is unlikely given the system's attach rate, 15m is certain at this point it's just a question of how fast it gets there, Ultimate has one version for a unified userbase.

I've yet to see him backtrack on the matter of Smash Bros for 3DS and Smash Bros for WiiU, however. Since all people are prone to change their mind, I'd rather wait until he actually does than to work with that basis, especially since the Smashpedia and the Wikipedia still reflect Sakurai's stance on their catalogation.

I merely base my opinion - one that I've already stated didn't even have a WW number set on mind when I entered this thread - on the fact that Smash has never been the best-selling title of any Nintendo console it has been present in aside from Gamecube, which I feel it's a one-of-a-kind scenario for the franchise, since it has consistently been outsold by Mario Kart ever since (and Mario Kart GC ended up very, very close to Melee too). If Mario Kart creeps out bigger legs and eventually sit over 20m, to put an example, then I'd modify my expectations for WW Smash - lower than 20m, but wouldn't rule out 15m. Basically my MO is just make it sit below Mario Kart by a certain margin, taking in consideration the sales history of both and even the Gamecube's deviancy factored in.

 

 

The point is the man frequently says things that he either back tracks from or is just his own exclusive viewpoint everyone else including Nintendo sees those games as one entry, he said DLC will never be in Smash guess how that turned out.

You're not making any sense here tbh each game sells independently from each other so what bearing does MK have on Smash selling 15-20m? The logic doesn't add up fact is S4 sold 15m LT and is still selling meaning the last two entries have crossed 10m easily which makes your 9m prediction all the questionable.



tbone51 on 11 July 2018
quickrick said:
Slarvax said:
Ah fuck. If tbone says this, might as well be a fact.

yea Tbone had switch outselling ps4 in 2017, it only lost by a small margin of 7 million, fact indeed.  

What? Im confused, what are you talkin about



Wright on 11 July 2018
Wyrdness said:

The point is the man frequently says things that he either back tracks from or is just his own exclusive viewpoint everyone else including Nintendo sees those games as one entry, he said DLC will never be in Smash guess how that turned out.

You're not making any sense here tbh each game sells independently from each other so what bearing does MK have on Smash selling 15-20m? The logic doesn't add up fact is S4 sold 15m LT and is still selling meaning the last two entries have crossed 10m easily which makes your 9m prediction all the questionable.

I already stated it. Nautilus got it, so I'm not sure what you didn't understand.

EDIT:

I checked what you said about "he said DLC will never be in Smash" and I can't find any source about it. I did, however, find a "Sakurai didn't say that!" post that claims the following:

----

Quote:

I understand that DLC could add a lot to the appeal of Smash Bros., and I appreciate that a major part of the excitement for these games come from which characters will appear in the roster, so I think fans could really enjoy DLC that could keep this excitement going. However, I think there might be criticism that we are cutting up content to sell characters one by one, or that we are adding things later that should have been there from the start.

Lack of Context:

This isn’t something that was explicitly taken out of context, but most fans did not read the full interview, or have twisted Sakurai’s words. Before the Wii U version of the game was released, Sakurai stated that there were “no plans for DLC”. However, if fans had went to the source of the interview, they would have read the full quote in context.

Here’s what Sakurai says in the same answer:

In light of this, we always need to weigh up both sides of this topic and carefully consider whether it really is best to have DLC or not.

However, what I can say now about paid DLC is that we aren’t working on anything at the moment. We’ve put all our efforts into making the actual game. Creating DLC would involve large additional costs and require the involvement of a lot of people. I can’t yet give you an answer about whether the price would justify the costs and criticisms mentioned above. (Emphasis mine)

Essentially, Sakurai stated that the base game was finished without any concrete plans for DLC. While we know from data-mining that there has always been capabilities for DLC, I do believe Sakurai created Smash without holding back any content as reiterated his Famitsu column, “The Creator’s Hands Are Alive and Well”.

----

The actual source has said statement.

https://www.videogamer.com/news/super_smash_bros_sakurai_on_reggie_patch_support_and_the_problem_with_leaderboards

So it's not really what you said. It's mostly that there's a misconception that Sakura said that (along some other things, seems the dude gets misunderstood a lot).

Last edited by Wright - on 11 July 2018

ZODIARKrebirth on 11 July 2018

it's a high prediction, but why not



Wyrdness on 11 July 2018
Wright said:
Wyrdness said:

The point is the man frequently says things that he either back tracks from or is just his own exclusive viewpoint everyone else including Nintendo sees those games as one entry, he said DLC will never be in Smash guess how that turned out.

You're not making any sense here tbh each game sells independently from each other so what bearing does MK have on Smash selling 15-20m? The logic doesn't add up fact is S4 sold 15m LT and is still selling meaning the last two entries have crossed 10m easily which makes your 9m prediction all the questionable.

I already stated it. Nautilus got it, so I'm not sure what you didn't understand.

EDIT:

I checked what you said about "he said DLC will never be in Smash" and I can't find any source about it. I did, however, find a "Sakurai didn't say that!" post that claims the following:

----

Quote:

I understand that DLC could add a lot to the appeal of Smash Bros., and I appreciate that a major part of the excitement for these games come from which characters will appear in the roster, so I think fans could really enjoy DLC that could keep this excitement going. However, I think there might be criticism that we are cutting up content to sell characters one by one, or that we are adding things later that should have been there from the start.

Lack of Context:

This isn’t something that was explicitly taken out of context, but most fans did not read the full interview, or have twisted Sakurai’s words. Before the Wii U version of the game was released, Sakurai stated that there were “no plans for DLC”. However, if fans had went to the source of the interview, they would have read the full quote in context.

Here’s what Sakurai says in the same answer:

In light of this, we always need to weigh up both sides of this topic and carefully consider whether it really is best to have DLC or not.

However, what I can say now about paid DLC is that we aren’t working on anything at the moment. We’ve put all our efforts into making the actual game. Creating DLC would involve large additional costs and require the involvement of a lot of people. I can’t yet give you an answer about whether the price would justify the costs and criticisms mentioned above. (Emphasis mine)

Essentially, Sakurai stated that the base game was finished without any concrete plans for DLC. While we know from data-mining that there has always been capabilities for DLC, I do believe Sakurai created Smash without holding back any content as reiterated his Famitsu column, “The Creator’s Hands Are Alive and Well”.

----

The actual source has said statement.

https://www.videogamer.com/news/super_smash_bros_sakurai_on_reggie_patch_support_and_the_problem_with_leaderboards

So it's not really what you said. It's mostly that there's a misconception that Sakura said that (along some other things, seems the dude gets misunderstood a lot).

Even what you posted backs my point as seen below he said they weren't working on anything then shortly later DLC turns up.

https://www.destructoid.com/super-smash-bros-sakurai-explains-studio-s-reversal-on-paid-dlc-291080.phtml

Sakurai, who has called modern DLC a "scam," said, "I think there might be criticism that we are cutting up content to sell characters one by one, or that we are adding things later that should have been there from the start."

Sakurai then snuck in a, "what I can say now about paid DLC is that we aren't working on anything at the moment." At the moment. Five months later and Lucas (previously in Brawl) is set to join Super Smash Bros. as paid DLC, while Nintendo has set up a webpage for fans to suggest characters to come to Smash as future DLC.



Ulternia on 11 July 2018

If they don’t add new characters and fix the story mode and Target Smash, they’ll be lucky to do 10M. If they add new characters, fix the one player mode and get their rightful acclaim, they’ll do 18M. 25M if they delete Daisy, Wolf and Lucina.



Nautilus on 11 July 2018
Wright said:
Nautilus said:

Sakurai sees them as separate entries because they were two projects to him(as a developer).Dosent change that the very few differences betwenn them makes them more like different versions of the same game, like it was a multiplatform game, rather than separate games.Given that, Smash 4 sold around 13 million units, about the same as the big sellers Nintendo had in the past.So the potential is there.

And while its fine that you think like that, its a rather simplistic way to view things Wright.Using past records and data to try to understand future events is fine and even necessary, but lowballing that the Switch is breaking every kinds of records, be them hardware related or software related, is extremely vital and makes predictions based on past entry sales somewhat unreliable.The Switch effect, as Ill call it just for making things easier, is exponentially increasing the sales of existing franchises.BOTW is already the best selling Zelda entry to date.Oddyssey will be definelly.XC2, as of 31th March, has sold 30% more than any of the other entries AND is the best selling Xeno game.And Mario Kart is selling better than the original entry by far, and there are certainly people like me, in a significant number, that havent bought the game simply because we have already bought the original game(which skews your argument too).And Im not even mentioning the high interest in software in general in the Switch(Third parties sales and stuff)

Honestly, I wouldnt even be surprised if Smash 5 managed to sell 10 millions(shipped  digital) in 1 month.

This is mostly because like I said, I entered this thread without any prediction in mind. I checked Nintendo's hardware/software sales from their webpage and worked a prediction from there, which I've repeatedly stated I don't mind modifying conforming Odyssey's/MK8DX's continuous sales in the charts.

What I confidently say is no chance of Smash Ultimate selling 25m, and I am willing to bet about it.

Well, im not certain it will reach 25 millions so Im not taking that bet XD

I just find it likely.What I do think is that I certainly see it reaching 20 millions LT.That I can safely say.I guess time will prove who is right!!!!!



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Wright on 11 July 2018
Wyrdness said:

Even what you posted backs my point as seen below he said they weren't working on anything then shortly later DLC turns up.

https://www.destructoid.com/super-smash-bros-sakurai-explains-studio-s-reversal-on-paid-dlc-291080.phtml

Sakurai, who has called modern DLC a "scam," said, "I think there might be criticism that we are cutting up content to sell characters one by one, or that we are adding things later that should have been there from the start."

Sakurai then snuck in a, "what I can say now about paid DLC is that we aren't working on anything at the moment." At the moment. Five months later and Lucas (previously in Brawl) is set to join Super Smash Bros. as paid DLC, while Nintendo has set up a webpage for fans to suggest characters to come to Smash as future DLC.

Nothing I've stated backs your point. The destructoid source you posted is precisely exercising the "Sakurai didn't say that" webpage states about people mis-reading Sakurai's comments, especially in the title "studio's reversal on Paid DLC" (something Sakurai never said).

> "In light of this, we always need to weigh up both sides of this topic and carefully consider whether it really is best to have DLC or not."

> "Creating DLC would involve large additional costs and require the involvement of a lot of people. I can’t yet give you an answer about whether the price would justify the costs and criticisms mentioned above."

 

It's even worse because Destructoid, in their attempt to capitalize using cool rethoric, actually posts the same source that points out at to what was said before:

https://sourcegaming.wordpress.com/2015/04/23/sakurai-on-dlc-its-all-about-making-players-happy/

"The same goes for Sm4sh. We could have easily reserved a few characters on the current roster and later sold them as premium DLC. A considerable amount of work went into development, and the game would have already featured a ton of content. Plus, if you were looking to make a profit, DLC would be the way to go. Development is more costly than ever, yet the price of games has remained the same, so more income would help offset that imbalance.

However, the DLC we are releasing for Sm4sh is authentic, developed only after we finished working on the main game. Of course, said content will come to you at a premium as compensation for the work put into developing additional content post-production. Nintendo has the final say on the price, but given the number of man-hours spent on the creation of this DLC, I’d say it’s a great deal."

 

> Sakurai states that DLC which takes content out from the finished version to be sold separatedly is a scam.

> Sakurai never states Smash 4 won't have DLC.

> Sakurai states that Mewto and Lucas are being released as a premium item, developed only after finished working on the main game.

 

It took five months (seven, if we take 3DS' version release) for Mewto to appear on Smash, so I'd say that's enough time to justify the character actually being made from scratch after the game released.

And most of this is beyond the point. You literally said:

Wyrdness said:

he said DLC will never be in Smash guess how that turned out.

And that wasn't factual. He never stated as such.