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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - NPD Analyst predicts SWITCH to be 2018 Best-Seller in the US

zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:
On that note, still unsure of when Nintendo will pricecut Switch. The answer may be surprising. (this year or never would be quite surprising)

Ya its hard to tell with Nintendo, personally i dont see one this year but i do think we will start seeing them release bundles with a game and online trial for $299 starting in Sept to build momentum going into the holidays.

Perhaps we will see some Black Friday deals where retailers throw in an extra game or accessories to existing bundles.

It be awesome if Nintendo had a bundle for each one of their big four titles from 2017 @ $299 for the holidays. 



A bit strange hes predicting the switch to not even have a single title in the top 10, yet to sell the most hardware.
Myself I expect the Switch to sell the most hardware but I'ld also expect it to have a couple of titles in the top 10.
Not the ps4 to have 10 of the top 10, though 8 are multi platform



There is couple of things why they predicting this:

-Nintendo consoles in any case always have biggest boost in sales in October-December period compared to PS/XB consoles, its not unusal that Nintendo hardware has similar or better sales in October-December period than combined sales of rest 3 quarters of year
-Pokemon and Smash Bros are one of strongest Nintendo IPs and they are both releasing in same quarter, both will be 10m sellers and combined will sell tons of consoles, so on point that Nintendo hardware always have huge boost in any case during Holiday season you can add one of two biggest Nintendo IPs
-Switch is still selling at launch price point whithout game, and Nintendo last year didnt had any deals, Nintendo will probably this year start releasing bundles with one game for same price point (probably for Black Friday and Holiday season), and if its needed maybe even and price cut.

So they predict Switch will have very strong sale during October-December period that will beat PS4 difference that will lead to that period of year.



Miyamotoo said:
There is couple of things why they predicting this:

-Nintendo consoles in any case always have biggest boost in sales in October-December period compared to PS/XB consoles, its not unusal that Nintendo hardware has similar or better sales in October-December period than combined sales of rest 3 quarters of year
-Pokemon and Smash Bros are one of strongest Nintendo IPs and they are both releasing in same quarter, both will be 10m sellers and combined will sell tons of consoles, so on point that Nintendo hardware always have huge boost in any case during Holiday season you can add one of two biggest Nintendo IPs
-Switch is still selling at launch price point whithout game, and Nintendo last year didnt had any deals, Nintendo will probably this year start releasing bundles with one game for same price point (probably for Black Friday and Holiday season), and if its needed maybe even and price cut.

So they predict Switch will have very strong sale during October-December period that will beat PS4 difference that will lead to that period of year.

Switch last year sold 2m+ through September and 4.8m YTD.

PS4 commonly sells ~5m so Switch will have to beat that.

Assuming Switch matches last year through September, then we are looking at a 3m+ October-December period. It's certainly possible if Nintendo keeps up stock, but it could be difficult. And that is assuming PS4 is down YoY.



Farsala said:
Miyamotoo said:
There is couple of things why they predicting this:

-Nintendo consoles in any case always have biggest boost in sales in October-December period compared to PS/XB consoles, its not unusal that Nintendo hardware has similar or better sales in October-December period than combined sales of rest 3 quarters of year
-Pokemon and Smash Bros are one of strongest Nintendo IPs and they are both releasing in same quarter, both will be 10m sellers and combined will sell tons of consoles, so on point that Nintendo hardware always have huge boost in any case during Holiday season you can add one of two biggest Nintendo IPs
-Switch is still selling at launch price point whithout game, and Nintendo last year didnt had any deals, Nintendo will probably this year start releasing bundles with one game for same price point (probably for Black Friday and Holiday season), and if its needed maybe even and price cut.

So they predict Switch will have very strong sale during October-December period that will beat PS4 difference that will lead to that period of year.

Switch last year sold 2m+ through September and 4.8m YTD.

PS4 commonly sells ~5m so Switch will have to beat that.

Assuming Switch matches last year through September, then we are looking at a 3m+ October-December period. It's certainly possible if Nintendo keeps up stock, but it could be difficult. And that is assuming PS4 is down YoY.

Switch last year sold around 2.4m during November-December period, this year I definitely see 3m+ for same time period, talking about this years sales in January-May period Switch sold 1.2m, in June-October period we can expect something around 1.2-1.5m, in other words Switch want have any problems selling more than 5m this year in US, so we probably talking around 6m.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 10 July 2018

GProgrammer said:
A bit strange hes predicting the switch to not even have a single title in the top 10, yet to sell the most hardware.
Myself I expect the Switch to sell the most hardware but I'ld also expect it to have a couple of titles in the top 10.
Not the ps4 to have 10 of the top 10, though 8 are multi platform

This is due to the Pokemon titles being counted as separate games, and smash releasing late into the year



MasonADC said:
GProgrammer said:
A bit strange hes predicting the switch to not even have a single title in the top 10, yet to sell the most hardware.
Myself I expect the Switch to sell the most hardware but I'ld also expect it to have a couple of titles in the top 10.
Not the ps4 to have 10 of the top 10, though 8 are multi platform

This is due to the Pokemon titles being counted as separate games, and smash releasing late into the year

Also NPD dont track digital sales for Switch while they do for PS4/XB1, but despite that IMO we could see Pokemon, Smash Bros or MK8D sneaking in top 10 of year.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 10 July 2018

Glad to see they are confident on the Switch. Hopefully it sells a lot this holidays and even more games are announced.



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"NPD Analyst predicts SWITCH to be 2018 Best-Seller in the US"

Im personally thinking the PS4 edges it out by a small margin.
I think 199$ (or less) at holidays + Spiderman + RDR2.... PS4 should edge it out.



PAOerfulone said:

Everyone just loves to fall asleep on this title...

Agreed, that game could be so freaking huge. Actually,I wouldn't doubt at all if it hit the top 10 this year.



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