The 360 held its 10.8 million for two years in a row according to vgchartz. With Natal, Halo reach, gears 3, Fable 3, Mass effect 2, Alan Wake, Splinter Cell conviction, and many more games exclusive to the 360 (some on PC), I believe that the 360 can sell 14 million by January 1, 2011.

     Contributing factors to this will be a 50 dollar price cut on the Elite model. They will do this to clear out the 120 Gig models and stock up on 250 gig models. That should happen in early-late august.

     Then in about the time Halo reach comes out I can see a price cut for both models. About 150 dollars for the arcade and 250 dollars for the 250 gig elite in the US. This should happen in mid september.

     Then in late November Im predicting a gears of war 3 bundle in france, italy etc just like the previous gears games...discuss am i crazy?

It could defo happen! This is an INSANE year for MS & they are promising this year, they will cause a BANG, and you no what, I believe them!

Yes, they probably will ship 50 mill by des 31 2010, considering they've shipped 39mill as of now. Will they sell 50 mill? Probably not, but it'll be close.

Why do I think so?
-For the simple reason that its going to be a strong software year for x360.
-They will cut price
-They will relaunch the system when NATAL launches, similarily to what Sony did last year.
-They will subsidise and launch a massive marketing campaign of epic prportions.

MS is in no way out of the game. That said, Sony will probably still be around 4-6mill behind x360 at the end of des 2010. Nintendo will still have a massive lead over both.

Average of 150k for next 50 weeks and you will have the number of 45m at the end of the year.

It's possible... but I don't believe it.
Competition is much more fierce this time around. And I don't have much faith in Natal.

Sure But no, your forgetting SONY And Nintendo Are both going to have a GREAT 2010 , Just as good if not BETTER then Microsoft's , Nintendo can Easily Drop the Wii To a Low PRICE and completely KILL Natal Where it stands , Sony will Probably Do A $50 Price cut , that will hurt 360's sales .

but Halo Reach will play a huge part , i just don't think its going to be as big as some many think it will .  still at the end of the year 360 will match ps3 in sales if not beat it IMO .

2010 Really Will Be 360s BEST YEAR Even tho its turning 5!

oh and GEARS OF WAR 3 out of no Where? Nah .

I believe it will ship 50 mill, but sell around 48.

Why will Sony "probably" do a $50? They need to make a profit on the PS3 and further cutting the price isn't going to help. They stood back and did nothing in late 08, they'll do the same this christmas.

chances are less..but still it cud sneak past with certain developments hovering around it by then like natal or release of AAA titles.

i think you're crazy. A) as you said, the 360 didn't sell any where near 14M the previous 2 years and B) so far this year 360 is down YoY. 360 should have an excellent year software wise but tons of sequels and a new IP aren't going to make hardware fly off the shelf especially considering sony/nintendo are having big years as well.

the only wild card is natal...and i don't have faith in it. at least not yet.


VGChartz Hardware data for the period 04th Jan 2009 to 24th Jan 2009:

Console X360
Total

557,992

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 03rd Jan 2010 to 23rd Jan 2010:

Console X360
Total

498,205