Obviously the numbers aren't exact, but this is a very good illustration of the way third parties have to think. On some boards, after the announcement from Eidos that they were withholding PS3 support until mid-2008 to wait for the install base, some people were actually chastizing that decision, saying "don't they know the install base won't grow without games!" First parties time games to sell systems. Third parties time games to sell games. And exactly as you pointed out, they estimate the appeal of the game not on how many consoles they think it can sell, but on what percentage of the install base they think it can sell to. Early on, demographics and attach rates might matter as much as install base, but as the install base gap explodes, they won't be enough to keep games away from the better selling system.

The most timely example might be how people were lining up for "Xtreme" Tickle-Me-Elmo's during the Wii/PS3 launch. Person 1: You in line for PS3? Person 2: No, actually. Person 1: Oh, so the Wii then? That fad will never last. Person 2: Actually I'm in line for a Tickle Me Elmo. I'm going to sell it on eBay at a 300% markup.

Um... they are playing to different crowds. If anyone looks at the PS3 lineup and do not get excited over more than 2 or 3 games then you are really not in that crowd. I have a wii and I am only looking forward to very "few" titles. I am not in the same camp as most wii fans are. No matter who sells more or less the crowds have always been different.

Uh, it doesn't matter what "crowd" a game sells to. PSone didn't sell to the Nintendo crowd. Didn't matter. It sold to a new "crowd" faster then Nintendo sold to its "crowd," and Nintendo turned around a few years later down 2:1 in WW console sales with little 3rd party support. The gain of support for PSone meant it was more likely to get games that did hit the Nintendo crowd. Of course, it helped that it was aiming at a wider crowd then Nintendo was, but then again that's exactly what Nintendo is doing today, on a much larger scale.

If your talking about the N64 generation wouldn't the lack of third party support because of nintendo's attitude and the choice to stick with cartridges? I saw no lack of third party support for the gamecube so I would imagine that was the case. Correlation does not equal causation. The point still stands. Nintendo's target crowd hasn't changed really and it is apparent through advertising and flagship titles that the crowd is different. Just because the easier to purchase Wii (hell, I bought 2) is selling like hotcakes. It doesn't mean that the way more expensive PS3 (mainly $600 in case you forgot) is failing just because it isn't selling as fast to the same crowd. The sheer fact that the PS3 is selling these numbers even to early adopters is impressive. It still astonishes me how people on forums are so detached from reality that it is assumed that the PS3 should sell out regaurdless of price and features. It still wows me to read about people here and on other forums predict such a total victory for the Wii so early. Yes I can see it winning over new game players and bringing back the nintendo fanbase but there isn't a game on the Wii that defines it yet in my opinion. I believe it is coming but I have not played a game on the Wii that has had me caught up in the hype that is displayed so much in the gaming media. I have had better consistancy with the PS3 and the 360 games then I have had with the Wii (the ratings show it as well). When devs hit thier mark on the wii the game is "REALLY" not fun to play with. I normally do not make predictions but after seeing what I have in the past few months in the real world and amoung a multitude of people I am going to firmly say that the Wii surge will die down and be surpassed by the PS3 in 2008. Of course barring some major titles but I am finding it really tough to believe that any of the new titles will win over people that were not nintendo fans to begin with. Mario, metroid, starfox and many others are titles I expect because I love those franchises but I highly doubt they will win over new people who have already been exposed to those titles and just was not interested. Yeah... I may be putting my foot in my mouth because it is obvious that I don't represent a majority of gamers (actually owning and enjoying all 3 systems) but my experiences recently have me making a call on this one.

GTA4 - some japanese liked it on ps2. AC - well.. kinda not. DMC4 - about 1 mln fans. MGS4 - about 1 mln fans. KillZone2 - like resistance, which is sold 140k. HS - god of war, only with girl, preety good start. NGS - really good game, which a lot of japanasese hasn`t played because of original NG coming to xbox. Lair - looks awesome, factor5. Uncharted - look damn good. Ratchet - probably not LBP - japanese will like it. Folks soul - some rpg, maybe will be good one. Tekken6 - but maybe not in this year.. AC6 probably too coming to ps3. Sony has good relations with namco(Cellius and usage of caell in namco arcade).

i think its already at the point of no return... the price and lack of software is killing it in japan right now... even though its outselling the 360 4 to 1 the wii is outselling ps3 3 to 1... they need some.. not just 1 but 2 or more killer apps or they are never gonna catch up...

can you name any console, that cost more then 500-600$ and outsells ps3 ???

You saw no lack of 3rd party support on GC? WHAT? Certainly, Nintendo chased third parties away in the N64 era. But look at what they excelled with on PSone. Totally different types of games, which sold to a slightly older demographic ("crowd"). That was the point. You say "The PS3's performance is impressive given its price." I say "The PS3 is underperforming due to its price." Maybe it should have been more predictable that its sales would stall. But here's a fact for you: even Sony thought they could sell 6 million systems by the end of March. That was their own goal for sales to retail, and you can assume they didn't want or expect a 50% sell-through of that. (Its hilarious, as they come up 1.5 million short of that goal production-wise, and still can't remotely sell through units, to hear them saying that well-stocked shelves were always part of the plan.) The game that defines Wii is Wii Sports. Sorry to say this, but the fact that you can't see that just shows how out of touch you are. (That's not an insult to your tastes; you should keep playing the games you love. But don't make predictions based on those tastes.) The poor critical reaction to highly successful Wii games shows how out of touch critics are. Its going to be funny watching people finally realizing what hit them over the next couple years. Hmm. What about Nintendo's top selling franchises? Mario is one, as is Mario Kart and Smash Bros, but what about Wii-brand? Nintendogs? Animal Crossing? Brain games? These can all do twice what Metroid and Starfox can, and many of them are new franchises, which have originated since GC, or grown exponentially since it. In short: you're looking in the wrong place if you think Metroid or Starfox matter. You're predicting something that has never happened in videogame history before. We're now past the launch period, and seeing real sales trends. And those just don't get reversed without an act of God... Regardless, I think you'll love your Wii eventually, as the ever-increasing support will bring some games you want.

of course not...but the only way for the ps3 to compete with the wii ... it had to have games from the get go in japan... i think the ps3 is doing anywhere from average to good considering it has no games that japanese go for right now exept gundam which slowed down after its 1st week.. i dont think it can catch the wii in the long term of course but short term heck no