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Forums - Sales Discussion - Holy Hell hardware adjustments!

iWarMachine on 30 January 2010
koffieboon said:
Zlejedi said:
khanticcortus said:

There is something strange here.

November 2009 , Microsoft announce 10 Millions XBox360 In EMEA ( Europe, Middle East , Africa ) and recently they announce 5 Million Xbox360 sold between October and December IN THE WORLD.

So it's impossible for the XBox360 to be at 14 millions in Europe. That doesn't make sense.

http://www.microsoft.com/France/InformationsPresse/Fiche-Communique.aspx?EID=b77e69cc-ab66-467b-853b-05a2c4e5b65b

 

Sorry for my bad english.... i'm French. 

That's a very good question which seems to be ignored by people so far.

 

But Xbox 360 isn't at 14 million in Europe, that number is for the whole of Others.

exactly...Europe, Middle East and Africa



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jonop on 30 January 2010
Kasz216 said:
BigBoobieHead said:
Kasz216 said:
fxa5209 said:
Cant believe that this web site would question its integrity with such a huge adjustment. This is not even within any kind of error margin. Serioulsy, i am starting to doubt any number here.

1.1 million divided by 31.21 gives me an error of 3.5%.

1.1 million divided by 13.89 gives an error of 8%.

Both are within VGC's margin of error of 10%.

 

It's an adjustment going back... pretty much forever as they refine their process.  So yeah... it is within the margin of error.

That's spin and you know it. If your going to be fussy like that you should know that probably the majority of software on this site is out of the margin or error. Also, if a console sells 100M, do you think a 10M error is acceptable just because it's in the 'Margin of Error?'

How is that "spin".  It's percentages... using the number based over the timespan given.

Also.. if a console sells 100M and their is a 10M error... is that acceptable?  Only if you have a hard count of every system sold.  Since that would be the entire swing of your margin of error.

Bit if you knew in fact that 110 or 90 million consoles were sold then... yeah.  That's acceptable.

That's what a margin of error is... a margin... a percentage.  Just because a number gets higher doesn't mean that the acceptability of the margin of error gets lower.


Being 1 off on a sale of 10 is no different then being 10 Million off a sale of 100 Million.

Hell... i'd say being 1 off a sale of 10 is WORSE... I mean your only tracking 10 things... vs you know... 100 Million.

 

The site wouldn't ever be off by 10 million though because of shipment figures. If there were no shipment figures then a 10 million error of 100 million consoles would be acceptable although at the extreme end of the error margin, so unilikely.



vaio on 30 January 2010

I love how when the Wii gets adjusted down people go: I new it couldnt sell that well good for VGC correcting the numbers.

and now that it happens to the twins its: VGC is unrealiable you cant trust the numbers.

LOL

Be happy that we got more correct numbers instead of complaining.



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Kasz216 on 30 January 2010
kowenicki said:
Kasz216 said:
BigBoobieHead said:
Kasz216 said:
fxa5209 said:
Cant believe that this web site would question its integrity with such a huge adjustment. This is not even within any kind of error margin. Serioulsy, i am starting to doubt any number here.

1.1 million divided by 31.21 gives me an error of 3.5%.

1.1 million divided by 13.89 gives an error of 8%.

Both are within VGC's margin of error of 10%.

 

It's an adjustment going back... pretty much forever as they refine their process.  So yeah... it is within the margin of error.

That's spin and you know it. If your going to be fussy like that you should know that probably the majority of software on this site is out of the margin or error. Also, if a console sells 100M, do you think a 10M error is acceptable just because it's in the 'Margin of Error?'

How is that "spin".  It's percentages... using the number based over the timespan given.

Also.. if a console sells 100M and their is a 10M error... is that acceptable?  Only if you have a hard count of every system sold.  Since that would be the entire swing of your margin of error.

Bit if you knew in fact that 110 or 90 million consoles were sold then... yeah.  That's acceptable.

That's what a margin of error is... a margin... a percentage.  Just because a number gets higher doesn't mean that the acceptability of the margin of error gets lower.


Being 1 off on a sale of 10 is no different then being 10 Million off a sale of 100 Million.

Hell... i'd say being 1 off a sale of 10 is WORSE... I mean your only tracking 10 things... vs you know... 100 Million.

 

You are being wayyyyyyy too simplistic.

A margin of error of 10% should NEVER mean something is overtracked or undertracked by 10% over a very long period of time, that would be a very weird fluke if that happened.  A margin of error will sometimes mean overtracking and sometimes undertracking. 

So if we accept as a fact that we have a weekly or monthly error of 10% then that should lead to lifetime figures much closeer than that 10% error. 

 

It wouldn't be a weird fluke.

It would be a systematic error in the formula.

Unlike the sampling bias type of error your talking about.

 

Which is exactly what Ioi admited to in this thread.

Their others formula had a systematic error in it causing them to overstimate others hardware sales on a number of platforms.

Systematic errors are always going to cause huge changes like this....

 

and every company has them.  Even NPD I'm sure has had their fair share of systematic errors.  It's just you don't hear about those because you don't pay for the private data.

 

Every tracking company further refines their formulas... and when they do so it leads to large changes in numbers. 

 



poroporo on 30 January 2010

360 33.30M -10% error (overtracked)
PS3 34,33M +10% error (undertracked)

So according to these fancy, extreme (but possible) values, PS3 already beat 360 to the 2nd place.

Nice margins of error, I like 'em !



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BigBoobieHead on 30 January 2010
poroporo said:
360 33.30M -10% error (overtracked)
PS3 34,33M +10% error (undertracked)

So according to these fancy, extreme (but possible) values, PS3 already beat 360 to the 2nd place.

Nice margins of error, I like 'em !

Its a statistical tie obviously :P



Kasz216 on 30 January 2010
poroporo said:
360 33.30M -10% error (overtracked)
PS3 34,33M +10% error (undertracked)

So according to these fancy, extreme (but possible) values, PS3 already beat 360 to the 2nd place.

Nice margins of error, I like 'em !

Sure, if you can argue how Sony has apparently sold more systems then they'll probably announce shipped....

and where 5-6 million X-boxes are being stored.


There are other numbers that can bring down the margin of error numbers.  Still nothing seems too ridiculious here. 

There are a lot of 360's already in the channels according to the current numbers vs Micorsofts shipments... but I don't believe it's even the most they've had out at one time.  I remember them doing quite a bit of channel stuffing two X-mas ago.

 

 

 



scabab on 30 January 2010

This is why people shouldnt take VGchartz seriously, its just a guessing site, they have few official numbers then just make guesses. Same with the games.



Kasz216 on 30 January 2010
BigBoobieHead said:
poroporo said:
360 33.30M -10% error (overtracked)
PS3 34,33M +10% error (undertracked)

So according to these fancy, extreme (but possible) values, PS3 already beat 360 to the 2nd place.

Nice margins of error, I like 'em !

Its a statistical tie obviously :P

It is, if going purely off that dataset and using no other outside information.



iWarMachine on 30 January 2010

We'll see how this turns out, maybe we will see the 360 going up, because 2M 360 in shelves doesn't seem right...
And if for some reason Sony announces that they shipped 34-35M consoles shipped then there's something wrong with the PS3 numbers too...
Now at least we know that the WII is actually pretty spot on.



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