By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Updated sales numbers from NPD via GAF (Forza, Demon's Soul, Rabbids, etc.)

mrstickball on 31 January 2010

On the other end, Sega knows its leaderboards, who connects their games to consoles, and can most likely extrapolate sales numbers from that.

God only knows how much MS, Sony and Nintendo know about their customers. With >50% of all gamers being online for consoles, the big 3 have a litteral treasure trove when it comes to market data on their game sales.

For example, Sega probably has data for how many users owned Valkyria Chronicles and connected to the net via PSN. Through data such as that, Sega should be able to infer user sell through on the game. I would imagine that most developers can and do have the means to track users that way.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Around the Network
Kasz216 on 31 January 2010
Xelloss said:

He said sell-through in the interview, and said it very easily. Basically, occams razor says there are really only 2 possible scenarios. Either publishers have relationships with their customers ( aka retailers and 2ng tier distributors like Ingram etc) where they get provided with the sell through data ( like many industries, and after all markup and floor-space allocation negotiations are heavily dependent on this type of information) or , you choose to believe that he was making shit up.

Personally, I highly doubt he was lying, mistaken or being random.

Except... we know for a fact that publishes aren't provided with sellthrough data like this... I mean why else do they go to NPD?



Kasz216 on 31 January 2010
mrstickball said:
On the other end, Sega knows its leaderboards, who connects their games to consoles, and can most likely extrapolate sales numbers from that.

God only knows how much MS, Sony and Nintendo know about their customers. With >50% of all gamers being online for consoles, the big 3 have a litteral treasure trove when it comes to market data on their game sales.

For example, Sega probably has data for how many users owned Valkyria Chronicles and connected to the net via PSN. Through data such as that, Sega should be able to infer user sell through on the game. I would imagine that most developers can and do have the means to track users that way.

Unless i'm mistaken... Valkria Chronicles doesn't have leaderboards.

I don't even think it has an online component.


Furthermore there are way too many variables to make such information worthwhile even if it did exist.

 

The only way I could see Sega having those numbers woulf be if they were a Siras customer.  Which they very well might be.  Though there is nothing to suggest that.



Xelloss on 31 January 2010
Kasz216 said:
Xelloss said:

He said sell-through in the interview, and said it very easily. Basically, occams razor says there are really only 2 possible scenarios. Either publishers have relationships with their customers ( aka retailers and 2ng tier distributors like Ingram etc) where they get provided with the sell through data ( like many industries, and after all markup and floor-space allocation negotiations are heavily dependent on this type of information) or , you choose to believe that he was making shit up.

Personally, I highly doubt he was lying, mistaken or being random.

Except... we know for a fact that publishes aren't provided with sellthrough data like this... I mean why else do they go to NPD?

You think that publishers use NPD for sell through data for their own product? Who knows maybe some do, but I really do not think that is the prime audience for NPD nor even necesarry. I am not trying to come across as snippy or anything, but I would really like to know why you are so certain that the prime audience for NPD is publishers looking to find out how their own product sold. Honestly that use had never really occured to me, because well... I am reasonably certain that it is not necesarry.

 

 I can think of lots of other markets for NPD data, though I wont take the time to list them unless speficically requested. Well maybe one or two examples- Traditionally,  investors, retail chains and marketing firms are top consumers of NPD data. Ex: Imagine for a second you are Gamestop. You know that in its first week of release you sold say 1 million copies of MW2.  (not a real figure, just using as example). Best Buy, Walmart etc.. probably arent going to tell you how many copies they sold. NPD probably does not even say specifically which stores, but using not only the cheap data for overall sales, but NPD's advanced services you can get an idea how your competition in general did in relation to yourself. Probably further broken down by region, and other varios categories I am sure. If you are Gamestop and your share of the overall was smaller than you thought it should be, maybe you want to figure out why. If your share was larger, then you know that your marketing worked...etc

 

 The thing a lot of people forget, is that video games, and specifically video game sales tracking is a tiny portion of what NPD does. It just happens to be that video game sales tracking is their most well known service amongst people like us who hang out on websites that revolve around video game sales. NPD's "primary" services actually revolve around deeper demographics and marketing information. And also about accuracy - NPD's prime services are more oriented towards showing "who" bought something and in what ratios, than being on the exact button as far as total sales.

 I could digress further, but its 3:30 am.

 



Kasz216 on 31 January 2010
Xelloss said:
Kasz216 said:
Xelloss said:

He said sell-through in the interview, and said it very easily. Basically, occams razor says there are really only 2 possible scenarios. Either publishers have relationships with their customers ( aka retailers and 2ng tier distributors like Ingram etc) where they get provided with the sell through data ( like many industries, and after all markup and floor-space allocation negotiations are heavily dependent on this type of information) or , you choose to believe that he was making shit up.

Personally, I highly doubt he was lying, mistaken or being random.

Except... we know for a fact that publishes aren't provided with sellthrough data like this... I mean why else do they go to NPD?

You think that publishers use NPD for sell through data for their own product? Who knows maybe some do, but I really do not think that is the prime audience for NPD nor even necesarry. I am not trying to come across as snippy or anything, but I would really like to know why you are so certain that the prime audience for NPD is publishers looking to find out how their own product sold. Honestly that use had never really occured to me, because well... I am reasonably certain that it is not necesarry.

 

 I can think of lots of other markets for NPD data, though I wont take the time to list them unless speficically requested. Well maybe one or two examples- Traditionally,  investors, retail chains and marketing firms are top consumers of NPD data. Ex: Imagine for a second you are Gamestop. You know that in its first week of release you sold say 1 million copies of MW2.  (not a real figure, just using as example). Best Buy, Walmart etc.. probably arent going to tell you how many copies they sold. NPD probably does not even say specifically which stores, but using not only the cheap data for overall sales, but NPD's advanced services you can get an idea how your competition in general did in relation to yourself. Probably further broken down by region, and other varios categories I am sure. If you are Gamestop and your share of the overall was smaller than you thought it should be, maybe you want to figure out why. If your share was larger, then you know that your marketing worked...etc

 

 The thing a lot of people forget, is that video games, and specifically video game sales tracking is a tiny portion of what NPD does. It just happens to be that video game sales tracking is their most well known service amongst people like us who hang out on websites that revolve around video game sales. NPD's "primary" services actually revolve around deeper demographics and marketing information. And also about accuracy - NPD's prime services are more oriented towards showing "who" bought something and in what ratios, than being on the exact button as far as total sales.

 I could digress further, but its 3:30 am.

 

Why?  Because that's the numbers they tend to use in all their statements when such statements need to be made.

It's simple.

I have no doubt they esitmate like Stickball said.  However such estimations have more chance for error on Niche games then the method NPD uses.

Those companies you named, aren't any more likely to give sellthrough information to Sega then they are each other... because otherwise such information would leak.

 

I don't think videogame companies are NPDs primary users.  However I do think they use them for official numbers because they have no more accurate ways to track those numbers themselves.



Around the Network
bmmb1 on 31 January 2010
Kasz216 said:
mrstickball said:
On the other end, Sega knows its leaderboards, who connects their games to consoles, and can most likely extrapolate sales numbers from that.

God only knows how much MS, Sony and Nintendo know about their customers. With >50% of all gamers being online for consoles, the big 3 have a litteral treasure trove when it comes to market data on their game sales.

For example, Sega probably has data for how many users owned Valkyria Chronicles and connected to the net via PSN. Through data such as that, Sega should be able to infer user sell through on the game. I would imagine that most developers can and do have the means to track users that way.

Unless i'm mistaken... Valkria Chronicles doesn't have leaderboards.

I don't even think it has an online component.


Furthermore there are way too many variables to make such information worthwhile even if it did exist.

 

The only way I could see Sega having those numbers woulf be if they were a Siras customer.  Which they very well might be.  Though there is nothing to suggest that.

Well here is your answer: http://www.gamespot.com/news/2445987.html

"In addition to Nintendo of America, SiRAS' first announced clients include Philips/Magnavox and Sega of America."



Currently Playing: Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked, Professor Layton and the Curious Village

Anticipating: Xenoblade, The Last Story, Mario Kart 7, Rayman Origins, Zelda SS, Crush3D, Tales of the Abyss 3DS, MGS:Snake Eater 3DS, RE:Revelations, Time Travellers, Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney, Luigi's Mansion 2, MH TriG, DQ Monsters, Heroes of Ruin

Kenoid on 31 January 2010

Uncharted 2 overtracked? Never mind. It will still do better than the original
*Goes back to play Mass effect 2* =)



                                  

                                       That's Gordon Freeman in "Real-Life"
 

 

Kasz216 on 31 January 2010
bmmb1 said:
Kasz216 said:
mrstickball said:
On the other end, Sega knows its leaderboards, who connects their games to consoles, and can most likely extrapolate sales numbers from that.

God only knows how much MS, Sony and Nintendo know about their customers. With >50% of all gamers being online for consoles, the big 3 have a litteral treasure trove when it comes to market data on their game sales.

For example, Sega probably has data for how many users owned Valkyria Chronicles and connected to the net via PSN. Through data such as that, Sega should be able to infer user sell through on the game. I would imagine that most developers can and do have the means to track users that way.

Unless i'm mistaken... Valkria Chronicles doesn't have leaderboards.

I don't even think it has an online component.


Furthermore there are way too many variables to make such information worthwhile even if it did exist.

 

The only way I could see Sega having those numbers woulf be if they were a Siras customer.  Which they very well might be.  Though there is nothing to suggest that.

Well here is your answer: http://www.gamespot.com/news/2445987.html

"In addition to Nintendo of America, SiRAS' first announced clients include Philips/Magnavox and Sega of America."

Cool, I retract my statement then.

I believe Sega over NPD.



jarrod on 31 January 2010
Xelloss said:

I would guess that given the nature of the publisher, NPD undertracks on more niche titles. They probably hit things like MW2 pretty well.

 The institutional investors who use NPD dont care if Demon Souls sold 200k or 300k,  they just need to know within reason who are making the big money printing hits and who isnt.

I'd actually guess they tend to be more off on more mainstream games.  Their coverage of outlets that tend to cater to niche games is pretty good, it's the more casual and mainstream sellers (Wal-mart famously) where they have to extrapolate are where they're more likely to error imo.



jarrod on 31 January 2010
Xelloss said:

According to the dude at Sega who was the manager in charge of developer relations for segas publishing wing, NPD undertracks by 30%.

Interview is over at 1up.com, their 4 guys one up series.

lol.  This is the same guy who talked about the "voice talent" they were using for Yakuza 3's localization and spending $500k on.  The guy who produced the Condemned games and recently took over Secret Level.  The guy who wanted to make a 1st person Streets of Rage 4.  The guy who clearly doesn't know shit. ;)