There rumors that natal will cost 100$ stand alone and other rumors that natal will be bundled with the console.  Its possible that the 360 will also get a price cut this year too, so all this had me thinking about what will happen to 360's price b/c to me i see both wii and ps3 staying at there current price for the rest of the year.

possible scenarios i thought about

1 200$ arcade with natal and 300$ elite with natal

2 200$ elite with natal 300$ super elite with natal

3 200$ elite w/o natal 300$ super elite w/o natal

4 150$ arcade 200$ elite 250$ super elite no natal's

5 200$ arcade w/o natal 300$ elite or se with natal

the only one that sounds likely to me is #4, 5 and 3 but this would mean no natal included at the 200$ price point, i have a hard time believing that for 200$ you'll get a 360 and a natal if natal is supposed to cost around 100$ that would mean that the 360 and accessoriescosts the other 100$?

What's really important is most think that the 360 will combat back this year with there natal/bundle/pricecut but if the 360s price remains at the 200$-300$ price piont (except they just added bigger HDDs or natal) and ps3 will be at 300$ the same scenario that happen in 09 will happen in 2010. Remember history shows us that 360 needs to be at least 130$ cheaper than the ps3 to have the same amount or just a little better sales than the ps3

i would like to hear what u think the 360 will cost by the end of this year and what u think will be included aswell

i think that it will be 150$ arcade w/o natal and 300$ super elite with natal around august of 2010 no wii or ps3 cuts this year ps3 and 360s sales will be similar to each other for 2010s holiday season like it was in 07 i see wii being down 2010s year compared to 2009 but not to much

I think the key for Microsoft needs to be the production cost of Natal (what it costs them to make, not what they sell it for) being extremely low. Like below $50.

If that is the case, they could probably sell a NATAL-inclusive $200 Arcade without loss by the end of the year.

I will go to the best one scenario in term of selling power :

- 150$ arcade + natal + natal game

- 250$ elite + natal + natal game

I m not sure they will release "cheaper" sku without Natal to push at the maximum they peripheral (you buy 360 = you buy natal)

I also doubt they will release a Natal console wo a Natal game inside

I also expect Ninty to cut their price, but, I m less sur about this one since Ninty do not like to react to competition and follow their own calendar (and still sell like hot cake)

For the PS3, I expect a 250$ entry price at best but I m not sure about the motion control/game

EDIT : they may lose money in the operation but they have money

I predicted some time ago that 360 will get a $50 price cut for both Arcade and Elite upon Natals release

any1 know if natal can run on an arcade or does it need something with some size to it to store on a HDD?

if so they could ax the arcade skus drop the elite to 200$ and include natal since all these live sevices require a HDD anyway

ill be shocked at 150$ arcade with natal included

Not going to happen with arcade that cheap, even without natal. I can easily see them bundeling it with the elite for the "same price" it sells for now. In fact, they would replace the Elite SKU with the bundeled Natal Elite SKU (makes a bigger user base).

I don't think they could afford to bundle Natal with the Arcade for $199.

If rumours are to be believed (that Natal requires a HDD), then the Arcade model would have to be revised with the inclusion of a hard disk, and as such Microsoft would be adding the cost of that and the cost of including Natal onto whatever it currently costs to manufacture an Arcade, and I don't think that would be particularly financially healthy at the $199 pricepoint.

what do you mena when you say "take the axe" ????

This depends on if the standalone Natal will cost $100. If it does cost $100 than I can't see any non-arcade bundle going for less than $300 or maybe $275 at the absolute least. I think it's going to be a similar situation to what happened in 2009. An invisible price cut to the elite model and bundle it with Natal for $300 and maybe a super elite bundle for $350. Do we even know if Natal will be compatible with the Arcade SKU?

I think this is the one I would go with. Is that option #1?