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Forums - Sales Discussion - Preorder charts - reliable or not?

Kenoid on 12 January 2010

Does anyone think if preorder charts are a good indicator of how well the game will sell, or a favorite product from a well-established franchise or just overhyped?

Current List: http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=6504&mp=1

Any game in this top 30 that you are rooting for?

1 Mass Effect 2  X360  2 65,108 317,181
2 God of War III  PS3  N/A  12,566 311,285
3 MAG: Massive Action Game  PS3  2 8,315 219,781
4 Battlefield: Bad Company 2  PS3  7 4,779 193,886
5 Battlefield: Bad Company 2  X360  7 8,265 127,150
6 Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Conviction  X360  6 7,900 109,226
7 BioShock 2  X360  4 12,431 107,897
8 Dante's Inferno  PS3  4 9,496 103,774
9 Final Fantasy XIII  PS3  8 12,065 89,851
10 Pokémon Heart Gold / Soul Silver Version  DS  9 6,680 73,612
11 Dante's Inferno  X360  4 5,908 51,596
12 BioShock 2  PS3  4 4,632 44,418
13 Gran Turismo 5  PS3  N/A  3,695 43,984
14 Final Fantasy XIII  X360  8 5,277 43,702
15 Super Mario Galaxy 2  Wii  N/A  2,186 36,062
16 Heavy Rain  PS3  6 5,598 35,533
17 Alpha Protocol  X360  N/A  658 35,354
18 Aliens vs. Predator  X360  5 5,577 30,231
19 Tatsunoko vs. Capcom: Cross Generation of Heroes  Wii  N/A  2,814 29,326
20 White Knight Chronicles: International Edition  PS3  3 3,014 27,030
21 Lost Planet 2  X360  N/A  1,073 24,273
22 Halo: Reach  X360  N/A  2,060 21,118
23 Alpha Protocol  PS3  N/A  335 20,623
24 Red Dead Redemption  X360  15 1,760 19,779
25 Aliens vs. Predator  PS3  5 3,226 18,850
26 SOCOM: U.S. Navy SEALs Fireteam Bravo 3  PSP  5 1,967 18,017
27 ModNation Racers  PS3  N/A  1,813 17,471
28 Red Dead Redemption  PS3  15 1,124 16,604
29 Lunar: Silver Star Harmony  PSP  3 2,537 15,336
30 Silent Hill: Shattered Memories  PSP  1 992 14,627


                                  

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badgenome on 12 January 2010

I'm rooting against Dante's Inferno.



Reasonable on 12 January 2010

I'd say for PS3/360 titles that are popular and known it's an interesting indicator as I suspect games like MW2 have the highest correlation to pre-order from fans.

Less know IP then less of an indication.

Obviously, with Wii titles it can be hit/miss due to their nature. A fair number of Wii owners probably never pre-order.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

nordlead on 12 January 2010
CGI-Quality said:
Why WOULDN'T the numbers be reliable? What makes you think they aren't?

I think he really means are they a reliable indicator of future sales and/or popularity, not if VGChartz is providing reliable data. So for example, there have been some games, like NSMBWii, that had twice as many 1st week sales as preorders, and then there are other games, like Brutal Legend, that basically 100% of preorders turned into 1st week sales.




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Kenoid on 12 January 2010

Nordlead - thanks, that is what I meant , the thread title is confusing.



                                  

                                       That's Gordon Freeman in "Real-Life"
 

 

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Ghazi4 on 12 January 2010
ioi said:

Whether the numbers are reliable or not and whether you are rooting for a game to do well are two totally different issues.

The preorder charts are taken from 3 major retailers so they are a reliable representation of what people are putting their money down for from a certain portion of the market, but this is obviously scaled to represent the whole market and in a similar way to the weekly software sales it is the way in which we scale the sample data to represent the whole market that is based on certain assumptions and models which are not always 100% accurate. The way people pre-order games at Target for example, is not a perfect representation of how they will pre-order at Toys R Us or Gamestop. Each store has it's own characteristics and consumer demographics as well as specific deals, but we do our best to estimate the market as accurately as possible from the sample data we have.

So they are reliable if you understand where they come from and appreciate that they are a ballpark figure, accurate to +-10% rather than an exact measure. You also need to take into account that pre-orders are a dynamic thing, the closer you get to release the more pre-orders will increase. Figures for Mario Galaxy 2, for example, are pretty meaningless at this point, whereas for Battlefield, MAG, Mass Effect 2, Bioshock etc you should be able to estimate week 1 in the Americas fairly accurately from the current preorder situation. Take currently weekly preorders, multiply by number of weeks left, add to the current preorder total and you should have a lower bound for final preorders. Add 40% to this to get a lower bound for week 1 sales. Again, this doesn't take into account the fact that the pre-order rate may increase or decrease closer to launch, but should get you in the right ballpark.

Finally, pre-orders are only going to have an impact on week one sales. For 70% of games that open large and drop away quickly then you could actually model total sales fairly well using the week 1 sales estimated above (if you look at most games and do a week 1 / total ratio you'll find many games fit into a pretty small range). For games that sell well over long periods of time, week 1 sales are obviously far less important and therefore pre-orders are a poor indication of how the game will perform in the long-term. This is why very few Wii or DS titles feature in the charts, and the ones that do are the more "core" titles that will see the majority of sales in week one. Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit Plus didn't chart until just before launch and even then their total pre-orders were very small compared to current sales. So you need to understand how different games perform to gain anything useful from the pre-order charts, not just take it at face value and compare everything like-for-like.

well said boss :D lol




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jarrod on 12 January 2010

I'm rooting for TastuCap and Lost Planet 2.



GodOfWar_3ever on 12 January 2010
badgenome said:

I'm rooting against Dante's Inferno.

I love you.

I'm rooting FOR Oh My God of War III.



Zucas on 12 January 2010

Kinda building on what ioi said is you have to think about the nature of a pre-order. Generally this is a representation of either veteran gamers or just huge mainstream games. I mean generally a game like Modern Warfare 2 wouldn't be preordered to that extent (hit or miss with veteran gamers) but because it is a huge mainstream game it was able to get numerous amounts to get ready for the game.

Another important factor is of course the nature of the game. Games which the core are generally going to buy are going to be ones that rack up preorders. Thus you see a lot of those represented especially when it comes to Wii, DS, and PSP. Also because PS360 have a well established mainstream buying base that has become very loyal, a lot of their games are getting reserved as well beforehand. Final component is just the nature of advertising. Most of the games on there have been advertised and talked about for months and sometimes years. They've had time to be heard and therefore going to get more reserves early. But for games that don't get that kinda word of mouth you will find they get more reserves a few weeks before they release.


So it has to do with veteran gamers versus mainstream/casual, nature of the game, and level of advertising. Only time those bounds break is given that PS360 have built a pretty loyal mainstream following akin to that of veteran gamers (just buy the next big thing attitude). But for the most part reserves are going to be about veteran gamer choice (core loyal fanbase) and big mainstream marketing projects like Modern Warfare 2.

Reliability is of course like anything but I'd say we are in the ballparks for most if I were to guesstimate certain preorders myself.