As we all know, any truely epic game such as Halo 3 in North America, Blue Dragon in Japan and Gran Turismo everywhere can move significant numbers of consoles.  However, one normally expects very good and very hyped games to move a significant number of consoles as well.

In Japan this has been happening with the release of moderately big games for the Wii and PS3 (though not to the extent Nintendo and Sony would like), but it has not been happening in any major way for the Xbox 360.  I have long theorised, and indeed mentioned numerous times on these forums, that this is due to an insufficient library of "average" games for the Japanese market on the Xbox 360 console.  What I mean is that for a fairly good game to garner significant console sales, potential buyers must know that they can get a number of other decent games they will like for the system.

Microsoft has been working hard to garner a 'critical mass' of decent games for their console in the Japanese market, but to this day no game outside of launch titles, DOA4 and Blue Dragon have moved large numbers of systems.  These games do not count as they clearly count as massive titles in Japan.  However last week Ace Combat 6 sold upwards of 60,000 units and moved 16-17,000 units of hardware.  As fantastic as AC6 is, it has never been a system-seller (on a large scale) in any market throughout the franchise's history, even on the far greater PS2 userbase.  So now the question needs to be asked.  Has the slowly but steadily increasing library of marketable Xbox 360 titles in Japan finally reached the critical mass where a great, but not massive title can sell large numbers of hardware?

Im curious about that, im also curious how much LO will push it, if it gets a high review from Famatsu, look for some great sales

I too am very curious as too just what Lost Odyssey can do, however for Japan it does not fit the profile of a game that needs a 'critical mass.' It is so huge that it would move consoles regardless. The best title to confirm whether the Xbox 360 is at critical mass would have been Virtua Fighter 5, but unfortunately its launching on the same day as Lost Odyssey:)

VF5, LO week will be huge, we will think it is American sales for a second!!

xbox360 > wii , maybe?

I dunno about greater than Wii. Hols there isn't as big but that close to christmas I think the Wii will just be too high. Still, I think its looking like the 360 is at or near critical mass.

Like I've been saying since the beginning of this year: 50,000+ units of X360s will sell during Lost Odyssey week. That's only 15k more than Blue Dragon moved, and no game moved over 7,000/wk before Blue Dragon came out.



I don't think "critical mass" has happened in Japan. More than anything, Japanese hardcore gamers are starting to realize that the Xbox 360 has tons of old PS2 IPs, and offers a better lineup than the more costly, less attractive PS3. Because of this, I think we'll see better sales for the rest of the year vs. last year (currently 100% better than last year, trending toward 400k this year).

And best case scenario, we see X360 sales hover around 3.5k-5k at the worst points next year.

And FYI, as the charts I've made have shown: the Japanese buy X360s when decent software comes out. Every game that has sold over 50,000 units has made X360 hardware increase by various measures. However, true spikes have occured with Halo 3, Trusty Bell, AC6, Blue Dragon, DOA4 and DOAX2. Each of those games have atleast doubled X360 hardware sales.

But I think the question is how well X360 hardware sells next week: if it stays above 10k (which I doubt), it's certainly going to be a monster (atleast compared to any other Microsoft in Christmas) for the rest of the year.

The hardware boost was also due to price cuts and new bundles, not just AC6.

I'll wait for the next few weeks' numbers before passing judgment.

This bears repeating. A Japanese gamer (nickname maguro) has posted the following in the news section as a comment:

"Hardware improvements of the Value Pack version of 360 is a significant reason of the 360 boost. Don't miss the factor though AC6 release was obviously effective. The VP hardware has 3 appealing point for we Japanese gamers that complained of the old 360 hardware.

(1) Additional heatsink to prevent RRoD
(2) HDMI output
(3) Low-power and low-thermal radiation shrinked CPU (Falcon)

Japanese gamers strongly doubted and complained about the hardware quality of 360, especially about DVD drive defects and thermal defects. And MS support is considered as irresponsible for hardware defects (Japanese didn't forget the XBOX1 DVD drive problem). So considerable number of them (including me) didn't buy 360 even if they want to play some 360-only titles.

But since the 3-years RRoD warranty and the hardware improvements, 360 is being considered as reasonably safe to buy by Japanese. But due to the sudden demand, the VP is now sold out in many major shops. And it is rumored that the VP is out of stock in MS Japan until late Nov. Some Japanese call 1 Nov 2007 "second launch of XBOX 360."

Though above opinion is not based on verifiable statistics, it is commonly and repeatedly said in Japanese gamer communities. I want to let foreign gamers know why XBOX 360 is not sold well in Japan. Though one aspect was explained well by "The Xbox 360 And Japanese Nationalism", the other reason (Japanese are avoiding 360 due to its low hardware quality) seems not known well. Though the VP hardware improvement resolved some complaints in Japan, some others such as "extremely loud acoustic noise" and "unbelievably huge AC adapter" are still remaining. 360 will get another boosts in Japan if MS improved such hardware qualities."

If this guy turns out to be right, the 360 could gain some much needed momentum in Japan.

I think that critical mass hasn't been obtained yet but mrstickball has a great point that he thinks hardcore japanese gamers are starting to take notice.

Microsoft is very savy on the marketing side. They used the same american tactics in japan initially for 360 and it was a failure. They are changing to better suit the market and they are concentrating more on Japanese content. A turn around won't happen over night, but I think strides and improvements are being made and once the japanese consumer catches on sales will improve... They probably don't have a shot at 1st place in japan this round, but 2nd place is still achievable (though highly unlikely)... It is best Microsoft uses this generation to figure out how to sell to the Japanese and then sell peoperly to them next gen.