#1 Sony
#2 Microsoft
#3 Nintendo

Sony has the highest chance in my opinion of taking the crown next gen, cuz they know what it takes to be on top from the success of the PS1/2, and they know what it is to be last with the PS3 and that is something they will learn form and try not to repeat, the 360 will always be behind as it barely gets sales in japan and no matter how well it sells in the US it can not compensate for Asia region.

As for Nintendo, allot of people cite that people will simply transition over to the next Nintendo platform, but this mentality only applies to core gamer install base, and not the casual one, it's been proven that the casuals are NOT moved by graphics, so a simple graphics boost will not make the casuals mover over, neither will new enhanced motion controls, I've said it before and I'll say it again, Nintendo's gonna have a very hard time selling Wii HD to the same market unless it's something radically different. Lets face it, Nintendo sold the wii with a gimmick, a hook to catch the casuals, and it worked extremely well to the point of being copied, but it won't work again as allot of the casuals like moms and pops will look at Wii HD for example and see it being identical with the wii they have and see no reason to upgrade, which is why Nintendo will either find a new gimmick and risk all to be number 1 again, or simply end up last.

I also know allot will say that the next wii has to do good, because it's doing good now, but the same thing said about Sony when they launched the PS3 after the extremely successful PS2?
Point is, no one can predict the outcome of the next generation, but we can have interesting discussions with a bit of common sense and a bit of logic thrown into the mix today.

anyways that's my 2 cents thrown in.

So microsoft wins next gen!

Let me change this for you:

Lets put it differently
Profit 
#1 Nintendo
#2 Nintendo
#3 BrandonM
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#9001 microsoft/sony

Sorry but I want a piece of the pie!^___^

1) Lil' Wayne
2) Nintendo 
3) SONY
4) Jay-Z
5) Peabo Byrson

6) Microsoft

There isn't going to be a next gen...

The world is going to end in 2012.

Nintendo has the brand name now, and they will probably make the biggest jump in terms of graphics (if that helps at all...). Microsoft and Sony seem to be playing catch up with motion controls now, whereas Nintendo is leaving their upgrades for the next generation.

So Nintendo has the brand name, and the surprise factor... it will be very hard to counter that, which probably means:

#1 Nintendo
#2 / #3 Microsoft / Sony or Sony / Microsoft

One of the things this generation has shown us is that the winner of the next generation is never a sure thing.

Captan Obvious saves the day once again!

I don't think that Nintendo will try another generation anytime soon, as everybody knows, better graphics can't make a console more popular.

Any "new big innovation" like the motion controller could be made as a peripheral, sony and microsoft does this too, adding motion controllers to revitalize their consoles instead of releasing new ones, because they realized that an even more expensive hardware wouldn't do it.

On the evidence MS is least likely to be in the lead. Looking at overall sales going back to last gen they have shown good, steady growth but nothing stellar. Unless Natal really takes off then on current install base and penetration MS doesn't yet have the brand awareness not worldwide penetration to have a clear chance at number 1 spot (using consoles sold WW as the metric). They seem sure to continue to grow and build on current install base though, particularly in US/UK.

Sony has had two great generations historically, worldwide has a better brand still for games. However this gen so far they have taken a huge fall. They're slowly recovering, but still, a lot of damage has been done. Assuming they keep the momentum going with sorting out the issues they will start next gen in a not bad position but I think they will not see an easy marketplace to dominate. Short story, they need to recover there position with more general buyers vs a smaller hardcore if they want another shot and number 1 - there challenge is keeping the folks they got with PS3, combating MS in US/UK and knocking Nintendo from the slot they currently occupy.

Nintendo is in of course a great place - but there is cause for caution. Motion controls was a USP this gen vs Sony and MS and clearly drove their victory (so far). However next gen everyone will have that as everyone is going to finish this gen with it. The big question is, can they innovate that successfully twice in a row? The core Nintendo Mario audience isn't enough, as the Gamecube sales showed, they need the broader audience that last gen went primarily with the PS2. For Nintendo the challenge is bottling lightning twice while fighting off a competitor who's been champ twice and the new kid on the block who's been slowly but steadily gaining marketshare.

So, after all that, I figure number 1 next gen is most likely to be a battle between Sony and Nintendo depending on who produces the console to best capture the more general marketplace, with MS taking a bigger share of the pie yet again but still not gaining largest console install base market share.

However, with both Sony and MS motion controls to launch I think this question is now being asked too early. Let's reconsider this question January 2011 - with visibility to market reaction to Natal and the Wand vs Wii a lot more should be clear.

Final point, if Natal and the Wand to do well and start to balance out Wii USP, then next gen could really see a genuine 3 way split, with no majorly dominant console. That should make things really interesting.