Tetsuo Shima said: SMG first week is a disappointment. It's a fact. It's a failure software and hardware wise. We should be prepared for upcoming major bombs (Nights etc., Mario and Sonic...)Is there a chance that this game sell more than Sunshine in Japan. Right now it's 80k behind Sunshine. What can we expect next week. I think it definitely won't sell more than 100k. I expect something around 70k. Will it break 500k in Japan lifetime?

One goal it won't reach: 50 million.

You heard it here first.

SMG is what I call future proof, it's the best looking game on the Wii so far! A few years from now it will still look good! And it doesn't only look good, the gameplay has set new standards for many years to come. That's why I think it will not only beat Mario Sunshine in Japan, it will beat Mario 64 and possibly even Mario Kart 64 (2.2 million) and that's assuming Nintendo doesn't expand it's Gamecube audience. If Nintendo can bring back it's SNES days it can beat Super Mario World (3.54 million).

Shigeru's not gonna be happy about this. First Zelda TW's performance there now this.

I usually don't question the Japanese buying public's decisions on purchases but I am disappointed that they didn't think this was worth the purchase. This is like Zack & Wiki X 9000. (ring up Vegeta for the 9000)

I hope the game is strong in the long term because this is in every way a commercial disappointment for a first week showing for such an obviously great game.

Hopefully America & Europe won't flake out on this stellar title and it gets its proper frenzy and respect here.

Maybe Nintendo did the equivalent of a Sony E3 2006 press conference over there and got the Japanese public there pissed. Something is weird over there right now. I wish I could get some on the street feedback.

None of this ruins the magic I have for this game and when I get this on launch day it will be an early Christmas for me indeed. But I am sincerely let down by this when thinking of the commercial side. Did Nintendo do any commercials or in-store promotions for it over there? Why in the hell is a spinoff like Mario Party 8 doing better than the mainline franchise?!?!? Eight for God's sake...the sequel is up to EIGHT! This is madness....this is SMG!

If this 250,000 figure goes from week to week for the next following weeks then all is forgiven. A sure and steady performance will make up for the lack of explosive frenzy I hoped for. But if this falls off the charts my brow will be slightly furrowed in anger when looking at that mountainy isle in the West Pacific.

If you love New Super Mario Bros. you MUST have at least SOME love for the SMG!

A few more days and I'll give this masterpiece the playing respect it deserves. November 12th!! It's on!!

John Lucas 

Danny355 said: @ Tetsuo, show me a game that sold 300k in its first week then sold less than 500k lifetime. Ridiculous statement! SMG will still probably be past 500k by tthe end of November & close to 1 million in Japan by the end of the year.

actually selling 300k in the first week then ending up with 500k isn't all that uncommon. Perhaps you are used to how sales work in the west but in Japan things are different. DQ swords sold over 300k the first week and is struggling to get to 500k, it'll probably barely make it to 500k LTD. With that said, Mario Galaxy isn't that type of game that is front loaded, like mario 64, sunshide, NSMB, mario party etc this game will continue to sell for quite a while. I expect somewhere between 1-1.2 million LTD for galaxy in japan.

but all the other games are also seeing slow sales (i.e. FF Tactics A2, Mario Party DS, Dynasty Warriors, Ace Combat (bad dropoff).

Because of that, I expect Galaxy to pick up steam when the holiday boom sets in (which happens later in Japan than in the USA).

i think it will beat sunshine but not by much

Tetsuo Shima said: SMG first week is a disappointment. It's a fact. It's a failure software and hardware wise. We should be prepared for upcoming major bombs (Nights etc., Mario and Sonic...)Is there a chance that this game sell more than Sunshine in Japan. Right now it's 80k behind Sunshine. What can we expect next week. I think it definitely won't sell more than 100k. I expect something around 70k. Will it break 500k in Japan lifetime?

Super Mario Galaxy will easily sell better than Sunshine over the life of the Wii. My reasoning follows:

(1) SMG is a much better game. I played Sunshine and it wasn't nearly as fun as SMG is.

(2) The Wii will likely have at _least_ twice the installed base as the gamecube did in Japan. Even with 1/2 of the attach rate of Sunshine, SMG would surpass it. And I believe point (1) above will keep the attach rate relatively good.

johnlucas said: Shigeru's not gonna be happy about this. First Zelda TW's performance there now this. I usually don't question the Japanese buying public's decisions on purchases but I am disappointed that they didn't think this was worth the purchase. This is like Zack & Wiki X 9000. (ring up Vegeta for the 9000) I hope the game is strong in the long term because this is in every way a commercial disappointment for a first week showing for such an obviously great game. Hopefully America & Europe won't flake out on this stellar title and it gets its proper frenzy and respect here. Maybe Nintendo did the equivalent of a Sony E3 2006 press conference over there and got the Japanese public there pissed. Something is weird over there right now. I wish I could get some on the street feedback. None of this ruins the magic I have for this game and when I get this on launch day it will be an early Christmas for me indeed. But I am sincerely let down by this when thinking of the commercial side. Did Nintendo do any commercials or in-store promotions for it over there? Why in the hell is a spinoff like Mario Party 8 doing better than the mainline franchise?!?!? Eight for God's sake...the sequel is up to EIGHT! This is madness....this is SMG! If this 250,000 figure goes from week to week for the next following weeks then all is forgiven. A sure and steady performance will make up for the lack of explosive frenzy I hoped for. But if this falls off the charts my brow will be slightly furrowed in anger when looking at that mountainy isle in the West Pacific. If you love New Super Mario Bros. you MUST have at least SOME love for the SMG! A few more days and I'll give this masterpiece the playing respect it deserves. November 12th!! It's on!! John Lucas

 Actually if Wii fit does great I don't think he'll mind, as Malstrom said in his recent article the gaming landscape is changing, I think Japan is just further along on the curve than NA and europe and the weakness of more traditional gaming and consoles in Japan supports this, even with a new color and a big game release PS3's numbers were still relatively mediocre in Japan and Wii even with SMG stayed pretty low, yet Mario Party for DS did amazing sales and I expect Wii Fit to be huge