IMHO the 360 has the best games line up for 2010 including: Halo: Reach, Splinter Cell: Conviction, Alan Wake, etc. You forgot to mention Mass Effect 2(console exclusive) and Crack down 2(exclusive)- two games that will not be on the PS3. The Wii has Super Mario Galaxy 2 and a New Zelda game.
Multiplatform games in 2010 include FFXIII launched in the west along with Bioshock 2.
PS3 only has God of War 3, Gran Turismo 5 and Heavy Rain and I would not hold my breath on M.A.G.(hardcore online only game) or Agent(never heard of that game) they are unproven games. FFXIII Versus and FF XIV may not arrive in 2010.
Natal is the 360s secret weapon in 2010. Oh it also has upcoming price cuts that will further attract more consumers especially the lower end of the market when the Arcade 360 hits the $149 in 2010.
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I can't see ME2, Crackdown 2, Halo: Reach being system sellers, just for the reason that ME, Crackdown and Halo 3/ODST would have sold the consoles previously, anyone who "must play" those games on a console would have already picked up a 360 for the originals.
Now, on the PS3 side, the 3 (or 4 if you include MAG) are all the 1st iteration of "that game" on this generation of console so I think we will see some hardware move, also Modnation is slated for the first quarter I believe as well.
Either way, I'm going to have a very busy Q1 with all these games for the 360/PS3 :)