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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - NATAL Changing the WorldatCES 2010!!!

JaggedSac on 18 January 2010
Avinash_Tyagi said:
JaggedSac said:
First off, are you under the impression that they are not targeting the casual market first with Natal?

So it is a bad idea to try and extend the 360's audience by providing a unique experience via Natal? Or are you saying it cannot be done due to the fact that MS has already courted the core market and cannot now extend to the casual?

They themselves have stated that core is first.

 

Actually trying to market to their core first is a bad idea, first off the core are the least likely to welcome the new innovation, if they are willing to adopt it, they'll be Wii owners already, secondly core games are the least likely to benefit from the innovation.

 

Now when it comes to reaching the downmarket, yes they'll have a hard time, what is a strength to them in the core market are weaknesses in the downmarket, the downmarket has different values, Nintendo already has learned the lessons of the downmarket, its their strength, but MS and the third parties it depends on so much do not, which is why they have such trouble with that audience, NATAL will reflect those problems in its software selection for the downmarket, and the core will see little benefit to NATAL in their own games.

Let me repost this as you seemed to have missed it:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/microsoft-hardcore-games-easiest-to-sell

"It's a continuation of a strategy we've been articulating for a long time, which is that we have a powerful piece of hardware that enables a lot of different experiences," he added. "Let's start with the core users to really get their attention and get them invested and committed to us as a platform. Then as we look to broaden to new audiences, we have the hardware capacity and technology innovation to continue to evolve the experience, whether that's by bringing things like Facebook, Netflix and Twitter to give people more reasons to turn the console on, or with Natal in the future, with a more social, casual and interactive controller-free gaming experience that something like Natal brings."

 

They stated the core was marketed first for the 360 as a whole, not Natal.  Natal is one of the things that they are using to broaden the audience.  This was the key part you left out of your earlier post.

 

And I would say Rare might have a good chance to create some compelling software for the down market.  It might just be their time to shine.



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JaggedSac on 18 January 2010
welshbloke said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

Again we get back to the issue of values and processes, the idea of a motion camera like NATAL may have the capability to reach out to such an audience, but not the way MS is trying to implement it, see the issue with incumbents trying to bring an innovation is they target it at their core in a way that actually destroys its disruptive abilities, Nintendo when they made Wii fit, actively designed the hardware around the software, with the intent of satisfying the need that I discussed earlier, MS doesn't know how to do that, nor are they even trying to launch NATAL in that manner, they themselves admit they are going to bring it to th e core first then try and move to the "casuals", like birdmen, without understanding the values and processes that made Nintendo so successful.

Microsoft are making Natal both the hardware and the software available for the 3rd party developers to develop. In the case of Natal the hardware was created in line with the software without the software the hardware is useless. As the boffin said in his 15 seconds of fame when describing the depth cam and how it defines the points on the skeletal.

What Natal does which is clever is remove the need for a board like we see in Wii Fit but more than that it builds upon it, not only does the camera sense motion but also the depth and skeletal which will only make for a more interesting and more challenging potential for a fitness package. Now whether a 3rd party can produce the software that engages like the Wii Fit package remains to be seen.

Lets imagine for a second. A Natal device could not only record the number of leg raises it could also assess how well the leg was raised. That I believe is the potential game changer element Natal has over the competition.

I think the Natal camera should always be referred to as a depth cam so as to emphasis the difference, maybe then the PS Eye comparisons can stop.

Now imagine a scenario where a Natal excercise application is used in conjunction with their Live infrastructure.  People could join together and work out with live instructors and chat with their friends as they do it.  Even if they did not do live workouts, new workouts could be downloaded whenever they felt like it.  More extensive workouts could be done as well, due to, as you brought up, the ability to see exactly what the body is doing, not just guessing based on pressure.



Avinash_Tyagi on 18 January 2010
welshbloke said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
JaggedSac said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
JaggedSac said:

I am going to disagree and say that your definition fits firmly in the economical want category.  No one knew they wanted a Wii Fit until the Wii Fit was created.  There was never a need for people to be able to stand on a board and interact with a television set.

Except there is, its called the fitness market, fitness devices and videos show that there is a need

Ok, so you have defined at least one need for Natal.  And it has the capability to satisfy that need greater than any other comparable device on the market.

Again we get back to the issue of values and processes, the idea of a motion camera like NATAL may have the capability to reach out to such an audience, but not the way MS is trying to implement it, see the issue with incumbents trying to bring an innovation is they target it at their core in a way that actually destroys its disruptive abilities, Nintendo when they made Wii fit, actively designed the hardware around the software, with the intent of satisfying the need that I discussed earlier, MS doesn't know how to do that, nor are they even trying to launch NATAL in that manner, they themselves admit they are going to bring it to th e core first then try and move to the "casuals", like birdmen, without understanding the values and processes that made Nintendo so successful.

Microsoft are making Natal both the hardware and the software available for the 3rd party developers to develop. In the case of Natal the hardware was created in line with the software without the software the hardware is useless. As the boffin said in his 15 seconds of fame when describing the depth cam and how it defines the points on the skeletal.

What Natal does which is clever is remove the need for a board like we see in Wii Fit but more than that it builds upon it, not only does the camera sense motion but also the depth and skeletal which will only make for a more interesting and more challenging potential for a fitness package. Now whether a 3rd party can produce the software that engages like the Wii Fit package remains to be seen.

Lets imagine for a second. A Natal device could not only record the number of leg raises it could also assess how well the leg was raised. That I believe is the potential game changer element Natal has over the competition.

I think the Natal camera should always be referred to as a depth cam so as to emphasis the difference, maybe then the PS Eye comparisons can stop.

I'm afraid not, the software you are thinking of is the development libraries, I'm referrign to the actual end user software, the games themselves, the hardware is not being designed around the hardware, as MS doesn't have the software teams like Nintendo has.

See the problem with that is, we've seen what the third parties have produced in those regards on the Wii, failures compared to Nintendo, the reason is they don't understand the values of the downmarket like Nintendo does.

See the thing is, there is already software that will do that, on the Wii, but that isn't making large software sales, the reason is that the way the games are made doesn't appeal to the downmarket values, its not just about getting a technical up on the competition, the downmarket doesn't care about that, they want the game that appeals to their needs and values, and Wii fit succeeds at that, no other fitness software has come close.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Lord Flashheart on 18 January 2010

Clearly MS is only allowed to target 1 audience at a time according to Avid.
Ignore him. He only understands up to a Harvard level.

He hates it for one or more of the reasons I stated people hating Natal and is now trying to justify it so he sounds completely rational.

Well as rational as someone who thinks (or knows) they can predict the future can be.



Official member of the Xbox 360 Squad

welshbloke on 18 January 2010

That's Wii Fit whooped then lets move on to Mario Karts :)



W.L.B.B. Member, Portsmouth Branch.

(Welsh(Folk) Living Beyond Borders)

Winner of the 2010 VGC Holiday sales prediction thread with an Average 1.6% accuracy rating. I am indeed awesome.

Kinect as seen by PS3 owners ...if you can pick at it   ...post it ... Did I mention the 360 was black and Shinny? Keeping Sigs obscure since 2007, Passed by the Sig police 5July10.
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Avinash_Tyagi on 18 January 2010
JaggedSac said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
JaggedSac said:
First off, are you under the impression that they are not targeting the casual market first with Natal?

So it is a bad idea to try and extend the 360's audience by providing a unique experience via Natal? Or are you saying it cannot be done due to the fact that MS has already courted the core market and cannot now extend to the casual?

They themselves have stated that core is first.

 

Actually trying to market to their core first is a bad idea, first off the core are the least likely to welcome the new innovation, if they are willing to adopt it, they'll be Wii owners already, secondly core games are the least likely to benefit from the innovation.

 

Now when it comes to reaching the downmarket, yes they'll have a hard time, what is a strength to them in the core market are weaknesses in the downmarket, the downmarket has different values, Nintendo already has learned the lessons of the downmarket, its their strength, but MS and the third parties it depends on so much do not, which is why they have such trouble with that audience, NATAL will reflect those problems in its software selection for the downmarket, and the core will see little benefit to NATAL in their own games.

Let me repost this as you seemed to have missed it:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/microsoft-hardcore-games-easiest-to-sell

"It's a continuation of a strategy we've been articulating for a long time, which is that we have a powerful piece of hardware that enables a lot of different experiences," he added. "Let's start with the core users to really get their attention and get them invested and committed to us as a platform. Then as we look to broaden to new audiences, we have the hardware capacity and technology innovation to continue to evolve the experience, whether that's by bringing things like Facebook, Netflix and Twitter to give people more reasons to turn the console on, or with Natal in the future, with a more social, casual and interactive controller-free gaming experience that something like Natal brings."

 

They stated the core was marketed first for the 360 as a whole, not Natal.  Natal is one of the things that they are using to broaden the audience.  This was the key part you left out of your earlier post.

 

And I would say Rare might have a good chance to create some compelling software for the down market.  It might just be their time to shine.

And what you forget is right here

NATAL is going to do the same thing, target the core first then move to the downmarket, a recipe for failure



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 18 January 2010
welshbloke said:
That's Wii Fit whooped then lets move on to Mario Karts :)

Wii fit whooped, nope, as I pointed out, just a technical edge is not enough, you have to formulate the software to the values and needs of the downmarket, no software even comes close to Wii fit in that regard



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

welshbloke on 18 January 2010
Avinash_Tyagi said:
JaggedSac said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
JaggedSac said:
First off, are you under the impression that they are not targeting the casual market first with Natal?

So it is a bad idea to try and extend the 360's audience by providing a unique experience via Natal? Or are you saying it cannot be done due to the fact that MS has already courted the core market and cannot now extend to the casual?

They themselves have stated that core is first.

 

Actually trying to market to their core first is a bad idea, first off the core are the least likely to welcome the new innovation, if they are willing to adopt it, they'll be Wii owners already, secondly core games are the least likely to benefit from the innovation.

 

Now when it comes to reaching the downmarket, yes they'll have a hard time, what is a strength to them in the core market are weaknesses in the downmarket, the downmarket has different values, Nintendo already has learned the lessons of the downmarket, its their strength, but MS and the third parties it depends on so much do not, which is why they have such trouble with that audience, NATAL will reflect those problems in its software selection for the downmarket, and the core will see little benefit to NATAL in their own games.

Let me repost this as you seemed to have missed it:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/microsoft-hardcore-games-easiest-to-sell

"It's a continuation of a strategy we've been articulating for a long time, which is that we have a powerful piece of hardware that enables a lot of different experiences," he added. "Let's start with the core users to really get their attention and get them invested and committed to us as a platform. Then as we look to broaden to new audiences, we have the hardware capacity and technology innovation to continue to evolve the experience, whether that's by bringing things like Facebook, Netflix and Twitter to give people more reasons to turn the console on, or with Natal in the future, with a more social, casual and interactive controller-free gaming experience that something like Natal brings."

 

They stated the core was marketed first for the 360 as a whole, not Natal.  Natal is one of the things that they are using to broaden the audience.  This was the key part you left out of your earlier post.

 

And I would say Rare might have a good chance to create some compelling software for the down market.  It might just be their time to shine.

And what you forget is right here

NATAL is going to do the same thing, target the core first then move to the downmarket


And how does this affect 3rd party developers exactly?



W.L.B.B. Member, Portsmouth Branch.

(Welsh(Folk) Living Beyond Borders)

Winner of the 2010 VGC Holiday sales prediction thread with an Average 1.6% accuracy rating. I am indeed awesome.

Kinect as seen by PS3 owners ...if you can pick at it   ...post it ... Did I mention the 360 was black and Shinny? Keeping Sigs obscure since 2007, Passed by the Sig police 5July10.
JaggedSac on 18 January 2010
Avinash_Tyagi said:
JaggedSac said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
JaggedSac said:
First off, are you under the impression that they are not targeting the casual market first with Natal?

So it is a bad idea to try and extend the 360's audience by providing a unique experience via Natal? Or are you saying it cannot be done due to the fact that MS has already courted the core market and cannot now extend to the casual?

They themselves have stated that core is first.

 

Actually trying to market to their core first is a bad idea, first off the core are the least likely to welcome the new innovation, if they are willing to adopt it, they'll be Wii owners already, secondly core games are the least likely to benefit from the innovation.

 

Now when it comes to reaching the downmarket, yes they'll have a hard time, what is a strength to them in the core market are weaknesses in the downmarket, the downmarket has different values, Nintendo already has learned the lessons of the downmarket, its their strength, but MS and the third parties it depends on so much do not, which is why they have such trouble with that audience, NATAL will reflect those problems in its software selection for the downmarket, and the core will see little benefit to NATAL in their own games.

Let me repost this as you seemed to have missed it:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/microsoft-hardcore-games-easiest-to-sell

"It's a continuation of a strategy we've been articulating for a long time, which is that we have a powerful piece of hardware that enables a lot of different experiences," he added. "Let's start with the core users to really get their attention and get them invested and committed to us as a platform. Then as we look to broaden to new audiences, we have the hardware capacity and technology innovation to continue to evolve the experience, whether that's by bringing things like Facebook, Netflix and Twitter to give people more reasons to turn the console on, or with Natal in the future, with a more social, casual and interactive controller-free gaming experience that something like Natal brings."

 

They stated the core was marketed first for the 360 as a whole, not Natal.  Natal is one of the things that they are using to broaden the audience.  This was the key part you left out of your earlier post.

 

And I would say Rare might have a good chance to create some compelling software for the down market.  It might just be their time to shine.

And what you forget is right here

NATAL is going to do the same thing, target the core first then move to the downmarket

Continuing to expand the audience is a continuation of the strategy they had from the beginning.  If they started targetting core with Natal they would be starting a new strategy, not continuing their original one.  The hardware he is speaking of is the 360.  You realize that right?



Avinash_Tyagi on 18 January 2010

^The same third parties that have consistently failed to grasp the downmarket this entire gen?



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)