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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Who can accurately predict what impact Natal will have?

nofingershaha said:
i just hope developers use natal for rts, its the next best option after the keyboard and mouse.

That would be nice indeed, but it would have to be insanely accurate and fast in its reading of signals, because Starcraft II for example would be a complete bore to play if it went as slow as a turn-based game.



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I am hoping Natal actually helps extends the XBox 360s lifespan and it helps sells millions of XBox 360 consoles. We can only be optimistic and hope for the best.



Squilliam said:
Reasonable said:
No one, as others have said. MS must have some projections, but there are a lot of variables to consider, not least the historic performance of standalone peripherals with specialist games (not too great) vs the success of the Wii (a console on which the motion controls are not a peripheral but the main control scheme).

I think it'll do okay, but will need some serious luck, good timing to market and fantastic marketing to have even a chance of going gangbusters - but it's just very hard to call because I feel this situation hasn't happened before so historic evidence is scant.

By the above I mean a heavily marketed peripheral hasn't shipped on a popular console after another, even more successful console, has popularized the idea of a particular method of controlling games.


What about the analogue stick? Aside from coming from a less popular console at the time the N64 sold quite strongly relative to PS1 when the console was initially released. Thats the closest historical evidence though the timing is significantly different. I believe in both cases the updated hardware was bundled with the console itself.

Wasn't aware of that, but that looks like the closet example.  It's going to be interesting for sure to see how Natal performs.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

numonex said:
I am hoping Natal actually helps extends the XBox 360s lifespan and it helps sells millions of XBox 360 consoles. We can only be optimistic and hope for the best.

Unless Natal seriously underperforms I'm sure it will extend the 360 lifespan, for a variety of reasons.  I believe MS is very happy with 360 and doesn't want to pull the plug pre-emptively, also developers have been complaining about cost of developing AAA titles for 360/PS3 so I doubt they are keen to see another specification jump that would likely raise costs even higher, plus finally I believe MS wants to gain more traction, via Natal, outside it's core audience before bringing out a new console.

If Natal is a success then I suspect 360 plus Natal would be on the market for quite a while before MS introduce the next Xbox.

On the other hand, should Natal not perform as well as hoped, then I suspect MS also have backup strategies which may involve bringing a new model (probably with Natal in the box from the start) to market.

I'd like to see both the 360 and the PS3 on the market for quite a while yet, so I'm hoping both Natal and the Wand take of well, we see more great games on each console, and get to save a little money before forking out for another round of tech.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

There's just not enough information available yet.

At this point anyone claiming it's the second coming of the 360 who is not actively involved in the commercial development of some genuinely revolutionary game or piece of software is just cheerleading for MS.

By the same token, anyone saying it will be a complete flop is likely just projecting their personal wishes.

It could go either way, and even anywhere in between. As in moderate success with continued support, but hardly the game changing revolution initially hyped during the E3 debut.

Worst case scenario would have it ending up like the PS Eye with minimal support although I don't see this happening between Natal integration with Windows 7 as a user interface, as well as MS essentially banking on Natal being a commercial success.



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I am quite certain that Natal won't be considered a success.

It could sell to 2 million homes in the coming Holiday season and then another 5-7 million standalone units in the next couple of years until inevitably Xbox 3 is launched in Nov 2012 with an improved version of Natal-controls under a different name.



If they can perfect the technology it will be a huge success. Maybe not on the 360 but in future consoles you can expect both Sony and Nintendo do adopt the technology.

Seriously people, this is the 1st step in what most of us techies and gamers dreamed of back in the 80s-90s. If any of you have seen Minority Report, this is basically the 1st step towards that type of computer control scheme. This type of tech can easily be adapted to replace almost any type of controller and can easily be adapted to create projector-like keyboards and mouse pad.

Lastly, you can bet that MS isnt only making this for consoles. They still have a PC empire to look after.



Nobody knows anything about what it's going to do, I've said this a million times. People really hate the idea though.