People have, with ballsy certainty, stated that Natal will have this impact or that impact, or this or that lack of impact.  I am not sure how anyone can determine this now.  Anyone have any idea how anyone can determine this without?

* A price point

* Knowing the software that will be available for it?

* Knowing the release date

* Knowing how well it will work

* Knowing how receptive casual videogamers and non-videogamers will be to it.

* Knowing whether or not Wii owners will consider it something to migrate up to.

Without this information, how can anyone be able to say how well it will do, or its impact?  Sounds like merely wishful thinking either way here (pro or con).

No one can accurately predict what Natal will do but from the stuff I've seen at E3, the list of developers making games for it and the major marketing MS is going to give it tells me that Natal will be a big success.

All that doesn't "tell" you anything :p It gives you the impression / you think / you hope it'll do ......

Gameplay footage and name of "Resistance 2" also "told" people it would sell a lot... look where that ended up.

No one can.

I watched the videos on XBox.com for the first time in six months yesterday again. It re-opened my eyes and I can see a lot of potential, but I can also see the possibility of failure.

No one will know until after it ships. But, one thing is certain, MS seems to be coming to the poker table with a lot of chips to ante on this one.

Originally, I felt it was only a casual thing with a probably focus on physical games and fitness (Karate, Aerobics, etc.). But, as I have seen some of the demos, I see a lot of potential for hard cord games like RPGs, RTS, etc. The biggest problem a living room console has is the lack of keyboard and mouse... Natal has the potential to eliminate that problem. Voice recognition and full body motion detection may make the keyboard and mouse irrelevant going forward. And if MS does what they appear to be doing and put Natal on PCs as well, we could be looking at further communication and collaboration innovations in the workplace as well with Natal.

The more I see, the more I realize the goal is much grander for Natal then just gaming. It could be the new interface between humans and computers/consoles. People may look back in five years and think keyboards and mice are useless add-on devices, just like punch cards and assembly went extinct in the early 90's.

Microsoft are your best bet, though noone will believe them if they were bullish on the prospects of Natal. However if they said that Natal would fail, everyone would believe them.

Thats MS goal and the potential of Natal is gigantic. I see it already integrated in Tvs and part of a new windows or Mobile Phones. But I also see that it takes time, it wont have such an impact this gen because MS is in its fifth year with the 360, and I dont see the huge advantage for games of this generation.

MS has no patent on stereoscopic cameras. Sony develops them aswell and the Hardware will be sold by many producers. MS will starts something with Natal. Actually they promote this technology and everybody can follow if the hard work is done. Natal is definetly the Interface of the future and i see MS profiting from it through Windows. But I cant see them profiting with the Xbox360. I still have yet to see a game (concept) which cant be done with Gem but with Natal.

Natal/Stereocam is bigger then just gaming it will be used for hundreds of different things. MS will have to promote this thing heavily especially the non gaming purposes and Sony will follow really fast, if its a success only on the OS market MS would have a real advantage for some time.

I cant see it being an explosion it will be a success on the long run but the people have to learn what this thing actually can do. 

It will be for sure the new interface between machines/computers and humans. I am thankful that they push this thing and its good that its a company which has enough money to dio this properly. It will change a lot in the long run but not too much for the Xbox360. Natal is more then just gaming. 

Has someone an idea what actually couldnt be done with gem but with natal some game concept with todays Hardware power ?

 And I dont mean steering with your hands because this can be done with a mote---> wii mote. or shooting--> pointer or baseball with a real bat-->pointer. 

It has to be something which really cant be done with Gem.

A complete 1:1 transfer of every movement and the possibility to do everything you can in real life so computer generated characters can recognize your body talk and you have various ways to interact with the world. Like grab a stone on the river and threw it into the water so he flips on the surface or holding your hand against the sun so it wont blind you or you actually grab any item and move it and use it wont be happening this generation for sure.

What we will see this gen will be just a small glimpse of the abilitys of Natal. And this wont be enough to make really an impact. And after his gen Sony will show depending on Natal success ICU on the E3 maybe 2011 or 2012.

Natal will be the first step into Virtual reality. it was just a flop because our technology was extremly limited but with upcoming 3d Tvs (without goggles on giant hyperbolic 100 inch screens and a stereocamera the gaming experience will be not comparable to todays experience.

It will be a slow development maybe the hardware will be wide spread because we will use it for different things like controlling Tvs like an Iphone without touching the screen. But the games will take a long time to evolve I guess next gen it will be the real start and the gen after it will really show what it really an do. This gen will be a demonstration generation for the technology.  

What if they let people make up their own minds?

Of course they're going to be positive about their own product, but they've been very controlling of the whole Natal hype. The consumer has had virtually no chance to form a geniune opinion, and yet it's being touted very highly. Arrogantly, even.

Well yeah! Its because they are learning from Apples example as the EDD is the closest Microsoft division to Apples line of products. Its all about expectation management and hype manipulation. I suspect E3 is going to be one big Natal festival from their part and they probably won't show more than one or two Natal unrelated third party products off which aren't exclusive if that.

I am prepared for the follow up "Rolstoppable is a MAJOR flop. We need to talk about him".

Impossible with the little info we have.