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Iwata: 4-Year Console Cycle 'Too Inflexible'

As reported by Aussie Nintendo, the company's Q3 financial results conference saw Iwata claiming that he's "doubtful that such a notion of platform cycles can be applied in the future." He argues, instead, launches should depend on when it can signify a major shift in entertainment, or when they have done everything possible with the current hardware. He also says that scheduling the successor to current hardware on a 4-year life cycle without paying attention to changes in the market "appears to be too inflexible an approach to us."

This isn't to say that the company doesn't have eyes on the future. "We need to forecast what the future will be like with the expected evolution of new technologies which are available at any given time, and try to identify the so-called 'sweet spot' of technology over the next few years," he said.

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So - what does this mean?  Does he want to lengthen the time between hardware releases or shorten it? (Or is he not sure yet?)

Discuss. 

I really hope that they don't take the SNES route and delay delay delay the next system. As we all know, one of the primary reasons Nintendo lost marketshare in that generation is because they waited too long and were arrogant about the NES's success. What I am hoping this means is that they release their next gen system to compete with the others but also continuing Wii support (i.e. Sony with the PSX and PS2.) But dragging out the system longer than it needs is not a good strategy.

Looks like 'not sure yet' to me.

He's saying that the there are a mix of factors which define when the market is ready for a new console, and those factors aren't on a fixed schedule.

For example, if demand for HD-quality picture increases substantially, that's a reason to push out new hardware sooner. On the other hand, if more sophisticated control technology isn't available, that's a reason to delay releasing a new console.

So rather than planning to release Wii 2 in 2010 or some other fixed date, Iwata is going to keep an eye on the balance of factors and judge when is the optimal time to release the Wii 2.

I agree, and think there are factors some people miss an important factor ...

Over the next several years a variety of middleware and tool developers will produce software that will (potentially greatly) reduce the cost of development; at the same time the market will continue to grow which should ensure more stable game revenues. When it becomes financially viable Nintendo will move towards "Higher Definition" game development.

From my understanding of this and previous comments they've made, they are saying that they no longer believe in coming out with a new console just for better graphics. Basically, graphics have hit the point of low return.

Instead they are more interested in technology that will enhance game play enjoyment or make the entertainment available to a broader audience. Basically something that will cause a dramatic shift, not merely a further refinement of what already exists.

What I got from it is, Nintendo will release a new console when they feel the time is right.

Maybe the time will be in 2009, maybe it will be in 2011, maybe 2015

They'll wait until the Wii stops selling

Personally, I think that announcing this at this point in time is just a way of saving face in the chance that sales plummit due to HDTV becoming standard before the usual cycle is up.

Also...

It sure as hell won't be 2009 I can tell you that. And I don't see 2011 either.

I always knew Nintendo was going to undo the traditional 5 year cycle with this system because of what it represents. 2015 is actually more accurate as to when the next Nintendo system will come out (whatever THAT may be).

They laughed at me when I said 240,000,000 minimum and folks don't know but I saw that number for the 5 year cycle. The longer Nintendo goes with the Wii, the more that number grows.

The ironic thing is that if any console has a chance of seeing a 10 year lifespan, it's the Wii.

And also strangely enough, Wii might the be system that also does its own form of convergence!

Wouldn't that be a shocker?

John Lucas 

The Wii's marvelous success against the more (horse)powerful competition shows that the gaming audience in general doesn't care a great deal about who has the best graphics. This might change if HDTV actually achieves a decent adoption rate during the next 4-5 years or so, but the Wii has a good chance of breaking the tradition in this respect as well.

I imagine Sony and Microsoft would also be rather keen on keeping their consoles on the market for a while to actually earn some money on them. This means anyone willing to take a risk could launch way earlier than the competition, but I think Microsoft wouldn't want to go through all that hassle again, and no developer would trust Sony enough to make exclusives.