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Forums - Microsoft - Microsoft computer accessories and Windows mobile are both struggling.

Darth Tigris on 28 December 2009

@mrstickball and WereKitten

You both make good points and we'll all just have to wait and see. I personally have no loyalty to any of the OS providers. I just think that MS is not anyone to count out, especially when they are an underdog (see something we've heard of here called the Xbox 360).

There was a conference in Seattle last month where WinMo7 was shown (under NDA, unfornately), but some things leaked out.
http://www.mobiletechworld.com/2009/11/19/windows-mobile-7-shown-under-nda-today/

There's excitement for sure. Apple has set a standard that Android is already gunning for reaching and hopefully surpassing and MS is most likely doing the same. Until we start hearing devs talking about it (which won't be for a long, long time) we won't know for sure how the community feels about it. Nor will we know how phone manufacturers feel about it (remember all of that Droid hype 4 months before it came out? Neither do I).

But there is something brewing that can't be ignored. Zune HD launched, followed by Win7 and then XBL enhancements that focus on multimedia (with Zune branding) and social networking. The new Office10 with a free online version (FINALLY!) is coming in a matter of months as well. Again, there is something brewing . . .



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bdbdbd on 28 December 2009

@Darth Tigris: You know, the problem here is, that M$ is facing the "big boys" as competition. They can't do much to hit Google, they can't do much to hit Apple (if they could, both of the companies would be dead by now). Their best hope are independent smartphone manufacturers. So far Nokia has stated it keeps going with Symbian, some manufacturers have gone to Android instead of Windows Mobile etc.

If M$ is the underdog, they have problems to compete. They do know how to knock the underdogs out, but when they themselves are the underdog, all they do is throw money around and hope it hits something.

They obviously try to create somekind of network, but this is where the device manufacturers hold all the power. What they are doing now, should have been done a decade or more ago.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

mrstickball on 28 December 2009

bdbdbd said:
@Mrstickball: Yes. That's why PC:s drove consoles, DVD players, CD players and phones out of the market. And that's why PS3 is dominating the sales charts.

Let's go 20 or 25 years back in time and look how much future consoles had back then, because of all the things you could do with a computer. The current interest in smartphones is because there's a growing market for applications. And because everyone is flocking there, in a few years they are starting to get burned because the market doesn't grow as fast as the developer interest and the budget of the projects grow.

Yet smartphones are outpacing traditional mobile phone growth by a decently strong margin. I don't think anyone anticipates smartphones to have 100% of the marketshare. However, they will continue to make up a larger portion of the marketplace.

I'd also ask you how long smartphones have even been considered a gaming device - the iTunes store for games is just over a year old - and its revenue is already as large as XBLA, VC, and PSN combined.

Because of smartphones, things we don't have after a decade:
Phones
Portable music players
Cameras
GPS navigation devices
PDA's
Calculators
Calendars
Etc.

And after two decades, we don't even have PC's anymore, because they are replaced by smartphones.
After three decdes, smartphones do your laundry and makes your coffee, so that's the end of washing machines and coffee makers. Also the gas stations cafe personnel will be unemployed because of this.

I know your trying to be sarcastic, but look at what has happened lately:

Portable music player sales have been slumping lately due to featurephone and smartphone penetration. Apple positioned their iPods to be more gaming-centric, as all new iPod touches feature the same compatability with gaming applications that the iPhone has. So for music players, they've certainly become more phone-focused.

For 'phones' - are you referring to standard phones? Do you realize how much they are being phased out for cellular devices? The adoption rate of cells has been incredible, as 90% or more of American homes have a cell subscription.

Cameras will always exist, as a cell cannot take the more professional/complex pictures. However, I'd argue that the market for low-end cameras will be completely taken over by cells within 5 years.

GPS devices will be taken over. I am unsure how long they will exist, but when I paid $0 for my turn-by-turn navigation on my cell phone, it doesn't make much sense to own an extra device that provides no extra abilities.

PDAs are already dead. They were taken over by smartphones and netbooks.

I will stick to my argument concerning cell gaming taking over the portable handheld market - there is really no reason it should not. The games are cheaper, can be better, and there is a much better reason for developers to choose the mobile platform over traditional gaming (e.g. a higher rev share than what Nintendo or Sony can ever give them).

To conclude, I offer you this:

Gaming on smartphones started off 2009 as a $100 million/yr industry. It ended the year at $500 million/yr. That is a lot of growth. More so than any other segment, sans casual, browser-based gaming on Facebook.

Next year, it will continue to see strong growth as Apple and Android, the two largest gaming-centric platforms will take away more market share from the lesser-gaming markets of WinMo Market, Ovi and BB App World.

The reason for my optimisim comes down to the de-balkanization of the cell gaming platform, which focuses on fewer operating systems, and more centralized application stores. If you did not know, cell gaming is already a $4-5 BILLION dollar/yr industry. What happens when that money is between 2 or 3 markets rather than 200-300, which has been the case for years?



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

bdbdbd on 28 December 2009

@Mrstickball: As i said, it's the growth that makes the devs interested in the platform. Once it's not growing as it currently is and the market becomes oversupplied - then what?

Smartphones, and everything they are used for, is experiencing growth because they fit into a segment in multiple markets. What's happening is, that they grab their share of the markets but that's just about it. Next thing to happen is that the low-end phones grow in features so, that they start eating the smartphone market.

If the mobile phones gaming would have eaten portable consoles away, it already had happened years ago. And if you noticed, your reasoning why iPhone and Android would eat away Windows Mobile, Ovi and BB is the same why iPhone and Android won't eat away portable consoles.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

Darth Tigris on 28 December 2009
bdbdbd said:
@Darth Tigris: You know, the problem here is, that M$ is facing the "big boys" as competition. They can't do much to hit Google, they can't do much to hit Apple (if they could, both of the companies would be dead by now). Their best hope are independent smartphone manufacturers. So far Nokia has stated it keeps going with Symbian, some manufacturers have gone to Android instead of Windows Mobile etc.

If M$ is the underdog, they have problems to compete. They do know how to knock the underdogs out, but when they themselves are the underdog, all they do is throw money around and hope it hits something.

They obviously try to create somekind of network, but this is where the device manufacturers hold all the power. What they are doing now, should have been done a decade or more ago.

MS faced the 'big boys' when they released the Xbox as well and that has turned out well for them.  For the record, though, MS is a bigger name in the moble OS world than Google and more widespread, of course, than Apple. 

I really don't understand this talk that MS is some completely out of touch and inept company.  There are many well deserved criticisms of Apple's OS and Android among others.  MS, like them, have made mistakes and all have something to bring.  But MS is clearly aware of the situation that they've allowed to happen:  http://www.mobiletechworld.com/2009/12/11/is-windows-mobile-7-going-to-be-too-late/

That being said, at least device manufacturers and carrier are still looking forward to WinMo7 eagerly: 

http://www.mobiletechworld.com/2009/10/30/sprint-we-want-windows-mobile-7-as-soon-as-possible/

http://www.mobiletechworld.com/2009/12/01/more-windows-mobile-7-info-silverlight-is-here-to-stay/

 



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Xoj on 28 December 2009
mrstickball said:
WinMo will be dead in a few years.

They had no centralized marketplace until October of this year - Nokia, BlackBerry, Android, and the iPhone had centralized marketplaces well before that. Microsoft has been slow to adopt, and stupid when it comes to mobile devices. Their shrinking is deserved.

Nokia will continue to shrink, leaving RIM, Apple and Google as the big 3 for mobile OSes. Android will be the only viable choice, as Apple and RIM have no real reason to support OSes on multiple devices outside of what they manufacturer.

And yes, Android is awesome. I've had one since July of this year. Its getting better and better all the time.

but nokia isn't shrinking. they actually selling the same.. 72--83 millions smartphones every year for the last 3 years.

and they actually gained marketshare last 2 quarters.

the only market nokia isn't leading it's america thats where RIM and other getting their boost.

but nokia have complete control of europe and asia.



MDMAniac on 28 December 2009
mrstickball said:

Nokia will continue to shrink, leaving RIM, Apple and Google as the big 3 for mobile OSes.

Huh? :)

Nokia doesn't shrink AFAIK. Oh, and RIM is important only in Americas.



bdbdbd on 28 December 2009

@Darth Tigris: Yes, M$ did enter the sandbox with big boys when entering the console business. And that's why they have lost so much money with their venture. They are topping Sony at the moment because Sony was stupid enough to play the game with M$. But, we have a third player too, who is running around in circles around M$ and laughing all the way to the bank.

M$ once entered the mobile phones business - and exited it.

I mentioned Google and Apple because all the money M$ has, can't take these two down. The money they have can't take Nintendo down. All three companies are companies that have high profit margins, when M$ competes by trying to hit the bottom line of its competitors. Whatever M$ does with Windows mobile, it's not going to hit Apples or Googles bottom line. And if the manufacturers aren't happy with Windows mobile, they can easilly switch to another OS in their phones.

The biggest competition however is Symbian, since it has quite a few manufacturers behind it, but at the same time nobody who would rely on it, so there's a chance to hit in the Symbian manufacturers.

And M$ likely is aware with what went wrong. What can they do about it is a different story.

A lot of instances are waiting the new Windows mobile. But what they wait with it, is how it performs in the market. It doesn't matter how it's received with manufacturers and retailers if the customers aren't buying it. It may or may not gain market, but M$ have traditionally performed badly in consumer space.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

heruamon on 28 December 2009

I'm hopeful for WinMo 7 to deliver, otherwise, I'm selling my Zune HD to get my Ipod Touch 64GB. Right now, I NEED apps for my Zune HD...and I'll probably upgrade to the eventual 64GB one, if M$ can get it's ass in gear and get apps on it sooner, rather than later.



"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

- From By Schism Rent Asunder

BoneyBoy on 28 December 2009
Xoj said:

it always had low marketshare.
nokia symbian too strong in europe with that they  over 50% of marketshare worldwide.

 

neither android or the iphone have enough marketshare, even with blackberry popularity , its not half symbian.

Actually NOKIA and SYMBIAN are losing market share to samsung, apple and blackberry.

http://www.engadget.com/2009/03/11/nokia-continues-to-hemorrhage-smartphone-marketshare-to-rim-app/

Nokia losing market share in Western Europe

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125849841919652777.html