Recently,PS3 is catching up on the X360's lead...but it won't last long...largely because 360s are cheap to manufacture and NATAL launch...
The gap will be about 5 million by years end, and 3.8 million by October 2010.
MS will cut the Arcade to 149$ and Elite to 249$ + NATAL + Halo Reach + Gears 3 + Fable III = MEGA SALES
End of 2010 - Gap = 5 million
Then by October 2011, Lead will be 10 million because of Natal's huge success ! Wii sales will decline
MS will cut the Arcade to 99$ and Elite to 199$. This will destroy PS3 sales.
End of 2011 - Gap = 15 million
Because of Natal's success, MS will launch Natal 2 along with a 79$ Arcade and 149$ Elite in Fall 2012.
Gap by end of 2012 = 30 million
Total by 2012 is 50 million PS3, 80 million 360, Wii 120 million
360 will take the battle to the Wii.
From the start of 2013 ----> 49$ arcade + 99$ Elite = HUGE Sales. Wii HD launch.
This will make 360 sell about 30 million in the year, Wii SD will only sell 10 million.
Total by 2013 - 57m PS3, 110m 360, 130m Wii
Then Sony will stop PS3 production and launch PS4.
2014 - Natal 3 + 29$ Arcade, 50$ Elite = 40 million sales for the year...Wii SDwill only sell 8 milion
End of 2014 sales - PS3 57m, 360 150 million, Wii 138m
2015 - Halo 4 + Gears 4 + Metal Gear Solid 5 (Exclusives) + 19$ Arcade, 24$ Elite = 150 million 360s sold for the year. Wii SD will sell about 7 m.
End of 2015 sales - PS3 57m, 360 300m, Wii 145m
MS did the right thing by making a cheap to manufacture console. AND they know how to advertise.
Will this happen ?
