With total industry sales down almost 8% in November, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has responded to the NPD data, acknowledging how he and other analysts were fooled into thinking 2009 would end up being a better year than it's been.
"2009 appears to be an all-out miserable year for both hardware and software sales. After two consecutive phenomenal years of growth, with software sales up 34% and 27% in 2007 and 2008, respectively, it should have been evident that a slowdown was coming, but many observers (including us) were lulled into the belief that the video game software business was recession-proof. Compounding our error was the belief that Wii sales would never slow, and that the music genre could continue to grow," he commented.
"We now see just how wrong we were. Wii hardware unit sales are down a staggering 28% through November. Even though combined PS3 and Xbox 360 sales are actually UP 5% this year, in absolute terms, the three consoles have sold almost 14% fewer units than in the prior year. At the same time, a lackluster lineup of games for the Wii (compared to a very robust lineup last year), software bundles with the PS3 and Xbox 360, and the effects of the recession clearly contributed to lower overall software attach rates this year."
He continued, "Compounding matters, sales of music genre games have suffered mightily in 2009, with sales through November totaling $620 million, compared to $1.19 billion in the same period a year ago. The $570 million decline in year-over-year music sales is responsible for two-thirds of the overall decline in software sales thus far in 2009."
December is likely to be another challenging month for the industry, but the "light at the end of the tunnel should be apparent in January," Pachter said, "when a much stronger release schedule and easier comparisons should permit a slight rebound in sales, with low single digit declines likely." After that Q1 should really take off: " In February, the game lineup is nothing short of spectacular, and we expect a rebound in sales to positive territory. Beginning in March, the strong release schedule will be further aided by easy software sales comparisons, and in April, easy hardware comparisons should contribute to software sales growth acceleration."
http://www.industrygamers.com/news/pachter-we-now-see-just-how-wrong-we-were/
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Is it me or does Pachter seem a bit negative almost upset even.
