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Forums - Sales - My 2010 Projections For PS360 Total HW Sold...Gap May Be Reduced Massively!

Vetteman94 on 10 December 2009
ramses01 said:
Vetteman94 said:
ramses01 said:
Vetteman94 said:

How do you know that for sure?   Last numbers I remember for the PS3 was they were only losing 10% of the price.   Which would be only about $30.  Could they make it even cheaper to make,  absoluely.  I imagine they are working on that as we speak.   Plus with alot of major software coming up for the PS3, they should have to problems getting moving into the black for the year of 2010. 

 


You never heard that they were losing only 10%.  You heard that the bill of materials (cost) was within 10% of the MSRP, which is a completely different thing.  That translates to a much larger loss.

No thats not what I heard either. 


That is exactly what you heard or read.  Like most other people here, you failed to comprehend what your read or read some idiots post instead of the actual quotes.

Speaking of being an idiot and not reading posts or qoutes, you should check out the source I provided and explanation of how I got to my numbers. 



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jarrod on 10 December 2009
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).

One thing alot of people seem to be confusing is, when they say profitability 2010,  they mean the entire PS division,  which includes PS2, PSP and software sales for all 3 consoles.    And they will easily reach that.  

PS2's fallen off and PSP's a dubious success at best (decent(ish) hardware sales, software sales suck, GO's an utter flop).  They've never been able to pull up PS3 before, they're not going to much difference in the future. If we get a $199 PS3 next year, that generational deficit's easily going to pass $6B.

How do you know that for sure?   Last numbers I remember for the PS3 was they were only losing 10% of the price.   Which would be only about $30.  Could they make it even cheaper to make,  absoluely.  I imagine they are working on that as we speak.   Plus with alot of major software coming up for the PS3, they should have to problems getting moving into the black for the year of 2010. 

As for your other comments,  PSP is more than a dubious success, despite the software sales problem they have due to piracy.   PSP Go hasnt even been out long enough to call it a flop,  they could drop the price and sales could skyrocket.  And sure the PS2 is dropping in sales but everything it sells is basically pure profit for Sony.  

Well, since sourcing all the rage how about providing one for that $30 loss figure?

DS has more widespread software piracy than PSP btw.  It's also easier to pirate (small ROMs, no firmware trickery).

http://www.engadget.com/2009/07/31/ps3-manufacturing-costs-down-70-percent-strange-it-doesnt-fee/

The $30 was just really an estimate on my part after getting the numbers from the source above.  If you consider that they still have to include a controller, wires and packaging.  and sell it to a retailer so they can make a small profit than $30 seems pretty realistic. 

That article cites just a 70% reduction in production cost from launch.  I can't even fathom how you're pulling "$30 loss" from it?



psrock on 10 December 2009
elticker said:

waw $100 per console that is alot. sony is got to be lossing alot of money. they are gonna be big in the red i guess from this info

They are not losing $100, they used to before they reduced the cost of manufacturing he PS3 by 70%. I believe it's closer to 40, 50 dollars.



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11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
jarrod on 10 December 2009
psrock said:
elticker said:
 

waw $100 per console that is alot. sony is got to be lossing alot of money. they are gonna be big in the red i guess from this info

They are not losing $100, they used to before they reduced the cost of manufacturing he PS3 by 70%. I believe it's closer to 40, 50 dollars.

I believe you'll need to source those figures.  Giving you the benefit of the doubt here, but the only sources I'm seeing in this thread are for a ~$100 loss on the slim from analysts and a 70% reduction in material costs from Sony PR...



Vetteman94 on 10 December 2009
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).

One thing alot of people seem to be confusing is, when they say profitability 2010,  they mean the entire PS division,  which includes PS2, PSP and software sales for all 3 consoles.    And they will easily reach that.  

PS2's fallen off and PSP's a dubious success at best (decent(ish) hardware sales, software sales suck, GO's an utter flop).  They've never been able to pull up PS3 before, they're not going to much difference in the future. If we get a $199 PS3 next year, that generational deficit's easily going to pass $6B.

How do you know that for sure?   Last numbers I remember for the PS3 was they were only losing 10% of the price.   Which would be only about $30.  Could they make it even cheaper to make,  absoluely.  I imagine they are working on that as we speak.   Plus with alot of major software coming up for the PS3, they should have to problems getting moving into the black for the year of 2010. 

As for your other comments,  PSP is more than a dubious success, despite the software sales problem they have due to piracy.   PSP Go hasnt even been out long enough to call it a flop,  they could drop the price and sales could skyrocket.  And sure the PS2 is dropping in sales but everything it sells is basically pure profit for Sony.  

Well, since sourcing all the rage how about providing one for that $30 loss figure?

DS has more widespread software piracy than PSP btw.  It's also easier to pirate (small ROMs, no firmware trickery).

http://www.engadget.com/2009/07/31/ps3-manufacturing-costs-down-70-percent-strange-it-doesnt-fee/

The $30 was just really an estimate on my part after getting the numbers from the source above.  If you consider that they still have to include a controller, wires and packaging.  and sell it to a retailer so they can make a small profit than $30 seems pretty realistic. 

That article cites just a 70% reduction in production cost from launch.  I can't even fathom how you're pulling "$30 loss" from it?

Originally the PS3 cost about $800 to manufacture,  which would bring its current manufacturing cost to about $240.  Now adding in all of the things I mentioned like controller, wires, the box and shipping.  Would put the console close to about $300 total cost to Sony.   Now I am not sure what the markup is on consoles but some members on this website have said its about 10%.  If that number is right then retailers are buying the PS3 at about $270, which would mean about $30 loss.    



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ramses01 on 10 December 2009
Vetteman94 said:
ramses01 said:
Vetteman94 said:
ramses01 said:
Vetteman94 said:

How do you know that for sure?   Last numbers I remember for the PS3 was they were only losing 10% of the price.   Which would be only about $30.  Could they make it even cheaper to make,  absoluely.  I imagine they are working on that as we speak.   Plus with alot of major software coming up for the PS3, they should have to problems getting moving into the black for the year of 2010. 

 


You never heard that they were losing only 10%.  You heard that the bill of materials (cost) was within 10% of the MSRP, which is a completely different thing.  That translates to a much larger loss.

No thats not what I heard either. 


That is exactly what you heard or read.  Like most other people here, you failed to comprehend what your read or read some idiots post instead of the actual quotes.

Speaking of being an idiot and not reading posts or qoutes, you should check out the source I provided and explanation of how I got to my numbers. 

The only existing, Sony provided, anchored, data point regarding cost is the estimated ~10% above MSRP that discussed shortly after the launch of the slim.  Your reference is useless for calculating costs as there is no believable anchor.



elticker on 10 December 2009
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).

One thing alot of people seem to be confusing is, when they say profitability 2010,  they mean the entire PS division,  which includes PS2, PSP and software sales for all 3 consoles.    And they will easily reach that.  

PS2's fallen off and PSP's a dubious success at best (decent(ish) hardware sales, software sales suck, GO's an utter flop).  They've never been able to pull up PS3 before, they're not going to much difference in the future. If we get a $199 PS3 next year, that generational deficit's easily going to pass $6B.

How do you know that for sure?   Last numbers I remember for the PS3 was they were only losing 10% of the price.   Which would be only about $30.  Could they make it even cheaper to make,  absoluely.  I imagine they are working on that as we speak.   Plus with alot of major software coming up for the PS3, they should have to problems getting moving into the black for the year of 2010. 

As for your other comments,  PSP is more than a dubious success, despite the software sales problem they have due to piracy.   PSP Go hasnt even been out long enough to call it a flop,  they could drop the price and sales could skyrocket.  And sure the PS2 is dropping in sales but everything it sells is basically pure profit for Sony.  

Well, since sourcing all the rage how about providing one for that $30 loss figure?

DS has more widespread software piracy than PSP btw.  It's also easier to pirate (small ROMs, no firmware trickery).

http://www.engadget.com/2009/07/31/ps3-manufacturing-costs-down-70-percent-strange-it-doesnt-fee/

The $30 was just really an estimate on my part after getting the numbers from the source above.  If you consider that they still have to include a controller, wires and packaging.  and sell it to a retailer so they can make a small profit than $30 seems pretty realistic. 

That article cites just a 70% reduction in production cost from launch.  I can't even fathom how you're pulling "$30 loss" from it?

Originally the PS3 cost about $800 to manufacture,  which would bring its current manufacturing cost to about $240.  Now adding in all of the things I mentioned like controller, wires, the box and shipping.  Would put the console close to about $300 total cost to Sony.   Now I am not sure what the markup is on consoles but some members on this website have said its about 10%.  If that number is right then retailers are buying the PS3 at about $270, which would mean about $30 loss.    

Notice: this is pure speculation be and can you please correct any inccorect information ofcourse with a link
i think sony sells ps3 to retailers for less than $270 maybe $240 or $250 cause if its $270 then retailers only profit $30. 30/300= 0.1*100 = 10% and in the video game industry most retailers gain more than 10% on selling a product.



 

 

Vetteman94 on 10 December 2009
ramses01 said:
Vetteman94 said:
ramses01 said:
Vetteman94 said:
ramses01 said:
Vetteman94 said:

How do you know that for sure?   Last numbers I remember for the PS3 was they were only losing 10% of the price.   Which would be only about $30.  Could they make it even cheaper to make,  absoluely.  I imagine they are working on that as we speak.   Plus with alot of major software coming up for the PS3, they should have to problems getting moving into the black for the year of 2010. 

 


You never heard that they were losing only 10%.  You heard that the bill of materials (cost) was within 10% of the MSRP, which is a completely different thing.  That translates to a much larger loss.

No thats not what I heard either. 


That is exactly what you heard or read.  Like most other people here, you failed to comprehend what your read or read some idiots post instead of the actual quotes.

Speaking of being an idiot and not reading posts or qoutes, you should check out the source I provided and explanation of how I got to my numbers. 

The only existing, Sony provided, anchored, data point regarding cost is the estimated ~10% above MSRP that discussed shortly after the launch of the slim.  Your reference is useless for calculating costs as there is no believable anchor.

Ill post the link again just for you,  it is Sony people that are saying the 70% off of original manufacturing costs.

http://www.engadget.com/2009/07/31/ps3-manufacturing-costs-down-70-percent-strange-it-doesnt-fee/

 



jarrod on 10 December 2009
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).

One thing alot of people seem to be confusing is, when they say profitability 2010,  they mean the entire PS division,  which includes PS2, PSP and software sales for all 3 consoles.    And they will easily reach that.  

PS2's fallen off and PSP's a dubious success at best (decent(ish) hardware sales, software sales suck, GO's an utter flop).  They've never been able to pull up PS3 before, they're not going to much difference in the future. If we get a $199 PS3 next year, that generational deficit's easily going to pass $6B.

How do you know that for sure?   Last numbers I remember for the PS3 was they were only losing 10% of the price.   Which would be only about $30.  Could they make it even cheaper to make,  absoluely.  I imagine they are working on that as we speak.   Plus with alot of major software coming up for the PS3, they should have to problems getting moving into the black for the year of 2010. 

As for your other comments,  PSP is more than a dubious success, despite the software sales problem they have due to piracy.   PSP Go hasnt even been out long enough to call it a flop,  they could drop the price and sales could skyrocket.  And sure the PS2 is dropping in sales but everything it sells is basically pure profit for Sony.  

Well, since sourcing all the rage how about providing one for that $30 loss figure?

DS has more widespread software piracy than PSP btw.  It's also easier to pirate (small ROMs, no firmware trickery).

http://www.engadget.com/2009/07/31/ps3-manufacturing-costs-down-70-percent-strange-it-doesnt-fee/

The $30 was just really an estimate on my part after getting the numbers from the source above.  If you consider that they still have to include a controller, wires and packaging.  and sell it to a retailer so they can make a small profit than $30 seems pretty realistic. 

That article cites just a 70% reduction in production cost from launch.  I can't even fathom how you're pulling "$30 loss" from it?

Originally the PS3 cost about $800 to manufacture,  which would bring its current manufacturing cost to about $240.  Now adding in all of the things I mentioned like controller, wires, the box and shipping.  Would put the console close to about $300 total cost to Sony.   Now I am not sure what the markup is on consoles but some members on this website have said its about 10%.  If that number is right then retailers are buying the PS3 at about $270, which would mean about $30 loss.    

The original $805 figure was for iSupply's 2006 teardown and was just the console material costs, not actually a manufacturing estimate and didn't include anything regarding cords, controller, manuals, packaging, etc.  You can't apply that directly to Sony 70% reduction figure with some fuzzy math thrown in for extras and claim a $40-50 loss. 

The only credible source in here says a $100 loss per slim.  In fact, the 70% figure you're working from even pre-dates that source, it's less recent.



binary solo on 10 December 2009
jarrod said:
binary solo said:
The $199 buy and install your own HDD PS3?

Really, who wants a paltry 120Gig HDD when you can shove your own 500Gig HDD into the unit? And still only pay a total of $299 in the end (or less if it's a used 500Gig HDD).

I've got a wothless 80Gig HDD sitting around at home. Seriously, who, other than someone who still has their original 20 or 40 Gig HDD in earlier PS3 models, is going to be interested in having an 80Gig laptop HDD? I'd probably have a hard time giving it away, and if the peron didn't live locally I'd probably have to pay for the postage. You could say that a buy and install your own HDD PS3 is actually more environmentally friendly, because it will help reduce the amount of e-waste in the world.

HDD costs are a pittance for Sony, they'll make too much more on a higher-price-point+HDD to do away with it like Microsoft with the Arcade.  It's also one of their competitive advantages in the developer arena to espouse every PS3 being HDD-backed.

I'll take the cheapness of HDD costs as a given. However where did you get from my post that I suggested Sony should do a PS3 Arcade? There is no equivalence between the 360 Arcade and my concept for a $199 PS3, every PS3 will still need a HDD. My suggestion is simply that the purchaser can have the choice of either buying a PS3 with a pre-installed HDD (120Gig or 250Gig), or buying a PS3 without a pre-installed HDD and sourcing their own HDD for the system.

If Sony don't want to run the risk of people buying a cheap PS3 not realising they need to get themselves a HDD (and sales staff being clueless about why the cheap PS3 is cheap) then the HDD-less units could be restricted only to stores / websites that also sell laptop HDDs.

If HDDs are so cheap I think it's unconscionable for Sony to sell a 250Gig PS3 for $100 more (in my country) than a 120Gig unit if the difference in cost (to Sony) between the HDDs is only a couple of dollars.



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