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Forums - Sales - Famitsu Game Chartz 11/29-12/06 (NSMBWii rules all)

c0rd on 21 December 2009

Ohh, but technically I'm still correct. It didn't make 250k, lol.

But seriously, FFXIII wasn't looking as great until recently, when the shipments / huge amount of bundles were confirmed. That was pretty much the perspective we were looking from, though we turned out to be wrong.

If we had the info then, I guarantee you there wouldn't have been as much doubt. I was expecting near 200k as it was, anyway.



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tedsteriscool on 21 December 2009
NeoMatrix said:
johnsobas said:

unless PS3 got a big boost this week i don't expect PS3 to be > than wii for this year.  Next week Tales of Graces plus it will get further boosted from holidays, then wii should be around 150k on FF13 week due to seasonal effects alone. PS3 might sell more than 150k that week, but not by much.
Soriku said:
250k PS3s in FF XIII week? That's not gonna happen. Even the PS2 didn't get such drastic boosts when FFs came out for it. ioi predicted 175k for FF XIII week, seems reasonable enough. But the Wii will increase too. Unless the PS3 somehow gets boosted to like...70kish or 80kish this week (not likely, it'll sell in the 40ks) I don't see why the PS3 would win over the Wii.
c0rd said:

If VGC puts Assassin's Creed at 56k first week (Famitsu number), I believe that's the second highest opening for a PS3 western game in Japan, behind GTA IV. Not bad.

The PS3 will not have a 250k week. Even in the miracle that it does, the Wii would still take 2009, though it was very close.

Overall, nice numbers.
TheSource said:

The way I look at FFXIII is like this -

Say it has a 50% bigger opening than NSMB Wii, and comes in at 1,350,000 week one. Well, the PS3 costs 50% more than Wii does in Japan, 30,000 Yen to 20,000 Yen. So to have a bigger lift than Wii just had, ~60k - mostly due to NSMB Wii - then it needs to sell far more than 1.35m week one. PS3 will be able to get to perhaps 60,000 next week, so it will easily clear 100,000 on a 60k FFXIII rise, and the next mid December season lift. But even with a 1,350,000 debut, pushing 60,000 PS3s I don't know that it can push PS3 much past 135,000 or so in Japan, even with the normal lift you'd see from the Dec 13 to Dec 20 weeks that doesn't include FFXIII.
Gnizmo said:

@PS3 predictions
250k is way way too high. DQIX couldn't even get the DS that high, and it is selling way better than the PS3, and Dragon Quest is a bigger series. Keeping predictions reasonable is key. I think 175k is probably too high as well based on what we have seen, but I don't know quite how to factor in the holiday boost.
binary solo said:

PS3 =/= PS2. But it's possible that PS3 sales in Japan since Slim and price cut will look more like PS2 sales than pre-slim PS3 sales.

Let's say pre-FFXIII week is 65K in sales (that's reasonable isn't it if this week is 50K with no substantial software and last week was 41K?), this should make FFXIII week hit 140K in PS3 sales.

If PS3 hits 150K plus on FFXIII launch in Japan then that will be a very impressive and overachieving result according to my analysis. Less than 120K could be seen as a bit underwhelming, and less than 100K would be quite poor. It'll need to be at least 100K if WW PS3 is to make 1 million that week.

ioi said:

So for PS3, you can see that Sony sees much smaller boosts in the next 3 weeks than Nintendo historically so I'd expect maybe 70k next week then 95k then maybe 125k for the week ending 27th Dec. With the release of FFXIII this will be more like 75k, 175k and 135k vs 110k, 160k and 210k for Wii. The week ending 3rd Jan will be interesting though - I could see both at around 150k potentially as Nintendo drops and Sony rises again slightly.

It will be interesting, but I think those expecting 250k+ in Final Fantasy week could be a little disappointed - 175k would be impressive imo.

I say, OWNED.

FFXIII - 1,516,532
PS3 - 245,406
PS3 LTD - 4,265,969

http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/1230711_1124.html

Also Media Create has usually higher numbers.

May I try to squeeze this post in my sig?



NeoMatrix on 21 December 2009

Gnizmo - oh, excuses. People who predicted numbers around 250k didn`t know that either.

c0rd - you can wait for Media Create and VGC numbers. I think they will have both over 250k.

tedsteriscool - good luck with that.



SOLIDSNAKE08 on 21 December 2009

man the ps3 really is making alot of people look like fools lately! was browsing through the posts and someone said 175k hardware, i knew staright away that was way too low.



Gnizmo on 21 December 2009
NeoMatrix said:

Gnizmo - oh, excuses. People who predicted numbers around 250k didn`t know that either.

c0rd - you can wait for Media Create and VGC numbers. I think they will have both over 250k.

tedsteriscool - good luck with that.

And that makes their predictions better or worse? There were literally 2.5X the number of bundles that were reported to be available initially. If not more (ioi is claiming upwards of 150k bundles). Being right for the wrong reasons is worse than being wrong for the right reasons.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

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tedsteriscool on 21 December 2009
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:
man the ps3 really is making alot of people look like fools lately! was browsing through the posts and someone said 175k hardware, i knew staright away that was way too low.

Since the slim launch, a lot of people's predictions have been consistently incorrect. My sig is a perfect example. It seems they underestimated PS now that it has what it lacked at launch: An affordable price, a handful of AAA exclusives, great online, and 90% of the 360's titles in equivalent quality.



c0rd on 21 December 2009
NeoMatrix said:

Gnizmo - oh, excuses. People who predicted numbers around 250k didn`t know that either.

c0rd - you can wait for Media Create and VGC numbers. I think they will have both over 250k.

tedsteriscool - good luck with that.

How is that a good thing?

The PS3 wouldn't have made 250k without it, so this still favors those who got it wrong. The number isn't the only thing that counts, the reasoning behind it does matter (if we're looking for consistency). Anybody can throw up high numbers and get something right, eventually.

I don't base my predictions on some sort of fanboyism, so I can care less about "eating crow" on this matter as opposed to others. I mean, many of us undershot NSMB Wii far more than PS3 hardware.

As for MC and VGC, I'm sure one (probably MC) will have it over 250k. I'm safe until then!

(Gnizmo said some of this already, I'm slow)



NeoMatrix on 21 December 2009

Gnizmo - PS3 didn`t sell all those 200k PS3 bundles this week.

"Square-Enix also worked with Sony to provide a PS3 + FFXIII bundle. We’re estimating the bundle sold about 100,000 units."
http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=6281

You underestimated stand alone PS3 SKUs and holiday boost.

c0rd - yeah, it`s a miracle. But in reality, these are just excuses. If people don`t want, they won`t buy those bundles, no matter how much you ship them. They would just buy stand alone PS3 SKUs, instead of bundles.



Gnizmo on 21 December 2009
NeoMatrix said:

Gnizmo - PS3 didn`t sell all those 200k PS3 bundles this week.

"Square-Enix also worked with Sony to provide a PS3 + FFXIII bundle. We’re estimating the bundle sold about 100,000 units."
http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=6281

You underestimated stand alone PS3 SKUs and holiday boost.

c0rd - yeah, it`s a miracle. But in reality, these are just excuses. If people don`t want, they won`t buy those bundles, no matter how much you ship them. They would just buy stand alone PS3 SKUs, instead of bundles.

And I expected around 175k ish maximum. 245 - 60 is 185. Yeah, those bundles totally aren't the reason I was low. Nothing to do with it at all. And no, all those people wouldn't just buy a regular model. There is a reason special editions always boost sales.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

NeoMatrix on 21 December 2009

PS3 did 250k only because it sold half of initial PS3 FFXIII bundle shipments. Great excuse for high PS3 sales.
Do you understand, that sales won`t be high no matter how much(500k) you ship bundles, unless there is a demand for them!