The following is talking about main story games on consoles. (So don't try to bring PSP into this)

I'm going to say FF13 will have the weakest opening sales of all FF games in NA. This will include both 360 and Ps3 sales. I think it's going to get half the sales of the lowest selling FF game in NA. The only FF game VGC has weekly sales for though is FF12... so let's go with half of those sales. FF12 FW is 572k so that would put FF13 FW at about 286k

FF12 FW > FF13 FW Ps3 + 360.

This game will not reach 10 million... I don't think it will reach 6 million. One thing is on it's side though. The game has 2 consoles to see legs on.

My break down according to pre-order numbers.

14

Final Fantasy XIII

PS3

28,458

1,911

13

23

Final Fantasy XIII

X360

18,767

1,078

13

So far its only selling about 3k weekly and has only about 47k total so far.

If sales remain consistent (which I don't think they will but I'll get into that eventually) then preorders will be about 86k. I think ioi said the rule of thumb for FW is preorders times 1.5 for walkins. So if pre-orders remain consistent then FW sales of FF13 would be around 129k. In order to get about 286k FW sales it will need about 190k in preorders. that is another 143k. An average of 11k weekly... well... there is only one game getting those kind of numbers in NA right now and that's GoW. ME2 isn't even getting those numbers and it releases right after the new year. FF13 will need to raise it's weekly sales by about 8k and each week it doesn't do it then that number gets higher.

Even if it raises 1k each week it would look like this.

4k 12 weeks left.
5k 11 weeks left.
6k 10 weeks left.
7k 9 weeks left.
8k 8 weeks left.
9k 7 weeks left.
10k 6 weeks left.
11k 5 weeks left.

So by the time it reaches the average to get half of FF12's sales that it should have now the average will then be 17k a wkk in pre-orders. Even when a release date was announced it still didn't get the average weekly sales it should have gotten.

Well i am sorry to disappoint you, but i think that this game will do 450,000 - 500,000 on the PS3 first week,, dont base your logic on early preorders, the game is still 3 months away from release

How would Uncharted 2's sales be if we only took into consideration the preorder numbers three months before release?

hayeya_k said: Well i am sorry to disappoint you, but i think that this game will do 450,000 - 500,000 on the PS3 first week,, dont base your logic on early preorders, the game is still 3 months away from release

How does that dissapoint me? Look at the preorder charts my friend. BFBC is getting 7k weekly with being launched at the same time as FF13 and already has 150k preorders. I don't think anyone is expecting a 500k opening from the Ps3 for that game. Yet its tracking higher than FF13 in weekly differences and total numbers. The first one didn't even see half of 500k on the 360! And look at every other game being so close to launch. None of them are getting the numbers that FF13 should be already getting. The only way I will be embarrassed by my prediction is if FF13 sells more than FF12. So it basically need 600k FW sales since I'm going so far out on a limb with mine and no one would have ever expected it.

FFXIII will sell 1.5 million in the month of March in America

RageBot said: How would Uncharted 2's sales be if we only took into consideration the preorder numbers three months before release?

Quote for truth. It's pointless to speculate on preorder numbers this early.

take it easy man,,,, FF XIII is a JRPG and not another shooter,,, this game will be super hyped 1 month before release, add to that the PS3 owners are super waiting for it (4 years of waiting),,,

JRPG preorders are irrelevant, when was the last time a JRPG got huge preorders ? FW sales will be good trust me

postofficebuddy said: RageBot said: How would Uncharted 2's sales be if we only took into consideration the preorder numbers three months before release? Quote for truth. It's pointless to speculate on preorder numbers this early.

Actually... using my method the pre-order numbers would have been closer to 150k for U2. It ended up with less then 300k. Then if you use my method for the weekly rises then pre-orders would have been closer to 200k... So I wouldn't have been terribly off. You also forget this was before U2 got 38 perfect scores on metacritic. Which could be reasoning for the extra amount of pre-orders U2 got... U2 was one of the biggest leaps of quality... The first one wasn't AAA according to metacritic... FF13 is coming from a family of AAA games. People who like these games wouldn't have the "wait and see" approch that U2 had. It's pretty much given FF13 will be 90+ and if not expect pre-orders to only be hurt by that.

Edouble24 said: FFXIII will sell 1.5 million in the month of March in America

Agreed.  I'm thinking 900k PS3, 600k 360.

letsdance said: postofficebuddy said: RageBot said: How would Uncharted 2's sales be if we only took into consideration the preorder numbers three months before release? Quote for truth. It's pointless to speculate on preorder numbers this early. Actually... using my method the pre-order numbers would have been closer to 150k for U2. It ended up with less then 300k. Then if you use my method for the weekly rises then pre-orders would have been closer to 200k... So I wouldn't have been terribly off. You also forget this was before U2 got 38 perfect scores on metacritic. Which could be reasoning for the extra amount of pre-orders U2 got... U2 was one of the biggest leaps of quality... The first one wasn't AAA according to metacritic... FF13 is coming from a family of AAA games. People who like these games wouldn't have the "wait and see" approch that U2 had. It's pretty much given FF13 will be 90+ and if not expect pre-orders to only be hurt by that.

Actually... I wouldn't have been off at all... lol. I'm giving FF13 an extra 150k too. So U2 break down. It had 50k 9 weeks before launch. 10k weekly average. 140k + 150k = 290k... it ended with 297k...