Well Erik at LEAST you agree with my last prediction. With your prediction of 150 million it confirms my soothsaying that Wii will be the world's biggest-selling console of all time. And you agree with my general placements as well. But trust me, bruh, it ain't gonna take to 2008 for Wii to see XBox 360 eye to eye. Somewhere in this forum is a guy who preserved an old VG chart from about February time and put it in his signature. Yes Now I remember! Tabarnacos was his name! Tabarnacos' profile In the chart XBox 360 was at 9.28 million Wii was at 5.00 million PS3 was at 1.88 million This was February because that's when I remember Wii hitting the 5 million mark. Last week starting March 19th the chart read: XBox 360 at 9.56 million Wii at 6.03 million PS3 at 2 something million (before PAL launch started) THIS WEEK *right now* we have: XBox 360 at 9.77 million Wii at 6.25 million PS3 at 2.71 million (after PAL launch finished) I wasn't expecting a jump like that for Wii of that nature in one week. That thing's on its way to the 7 million mark ALREADY!!! It looks like it'll hit 7 million by mid-April. They've gone from a little over half of 360's sales to approaching 2/3 of 360's sales in one month! Meanwhile for like forever XBox 360 struggles to get to that true 10 million mark. I've seen them in that 9 million range forever it seems like. Most of the year so far. XBox 360's inching, Wii's galloping. In 4 months there will be no more gap. Wii will catch the 360, I'm telling you. THIS YEAR. THIS SUMMER. THIS JULY. Remember Nintendo adjusts their production schedule periodically. What makes you think they won't increase supply enough to close that gap further? The demand doesn't seem to stop. It will be like this all year long especially revving up towards this holiday season time. Almost everyone who sees a Wii in action thinks about getting one for themselves. It's viral. It's contagious. Wii Fever. Just watch as the months go by. My predictions will prove themselves in time. John Lucas

Lucas, Erik is right. You can't expect Nintendo to sell and ship 3 million more Wiis than 360 to the Americas by July...they would have to ignore Japan and Europe (although I suppose they could get away with it in Japan...hmm) Look at this way: 4 months time Wii - 3 million behind 360 in USA Current: Wii - 350,000/month 360 - 250,000/month This would have to change to 1 million Wii/month, 250,000 360 per month until July...just in North America. I'm sure Nintendo can ship over 1 million worldwide per month, but until production ramps up to 2 million plus/month, don't expect over a million sold in a territory in a month except for Dec (perhaps November as well).

In 4 months there will be no more gap. Wii will catch the 360, I'm telling you. THIS YEAR. THIS SUMMER. THIS JULY. ----------------------------------------------------- That's possible for Europe. And its even possible for the overall WW tally. But it really isn't possible in NA. Remember, the entire WW lead for 360 comes from NA. In the rest of the world, the two systems are already even, and Wii is selling faster. So the WW passing is destined to come some months before the NA passing.

Well, I personally think September is more likely, as I could see the two systems intersecting at about 13.5 million units in that month... But we should stop predicting when Wii catches 360 until we know Nintendo's shipment goals.

My prediction for the next generation is pretty different from most opinions here. Toward the later quater of O7, the 360 will gain ground in Japan, but not much. Major titles such as GTA, Mass Effect, Devil May Cry 4, Virtua Fighter 5, Blue Dragon(In US and EU), Lost Odessy, and of course Halo 3 will ensure that the 360 dominates the year 07. The Wii will continue it's fast track and will come within 1-2 million by end of 07 This is overall, not in any specific teritory. The PS3 having only 3 major titles coming out this year to my knowledge: Tekken 6(I think), FFXIII, and MGS4 will continute to lag behind it's competitors. 2008 The 360 my hit it's first actual major title drought, but consumers will have been so Wow by the late 07 releases that it's momentum may continue to grow or atleast sustain itself. Until the major titles start coming up again. During the slow period MS may make a price drop of $50-$100 putting the Core system below the price of the Wii, but this won't happen until MS has squeezed every bit of cash they could from their stellar 07 showing. -Sales Estimate(end of 07): $17.18million -Sales Estimate(end of 08): $22.24million The Wii may face some difficult times in 08. After the 360's 07 showing, graphics may be pushed back into the for front. If this happens the Wii is screwed. While there will be some stellar uses of the Wiimote, many companies will fail to utilize it effectly. This is more damaging to the Wii than to most other platforms because the Wii emphasizes gameplay innovation and lacks the pretty bells and whistles to make up for what it lacks gameplay wise. While this won't happen too much, roughly 25%-33% of the games released will have this problem. Unless the Wii can wow with more than Wii Sports and Twighlight Princess, it will begin to fall into obscurity at worst becoming a party system that you only need a few games for. -Sales Estimate(End of 07): $13.80million -Sales Estimate(End of 08): $17.76million This will be a very important year for the PS3. After being hammered by the 360 and Wii, this will be the year that will make or break it. They will continue to lose exclusives to the 360 due to it's larger install base and similar capabilities. Fortunately for the PS3 HD televisions are getting cheaper and cheaper. Due to it's BR-DVD capability the Blue-Ray format will win the format war which will help the PS3's sales, but the software will still struggle to move as it will be seen more as a cheap BR-DVD Player than a game system. If the PS3 is to thrive, it will have to show the "true" power of it's Cell Processor and Graphics card, otherwise in the gaming world it will always be seen as an expensive Xbox 360 due to the amount of ports the two systems will share. My personal opinion is that the PS3 will not come out with anything so stunning as to set it apart as vastly superior to the 360. -Sales Estimate(End of 07): $6.80million -Sales Estimate(End of 08): $12.41million 2009 and Beyond The 360 will enjoy great success everywhere but Japan where it will still struggle. Many major 3rd party games will be ported over to the 360 like Tekken 6 and MSG4. More likely than not I don't see Square-Enix bringing FFXII to the 360. But the price drops will continue to keep it competitive with the Wii in terms of pricing. The 360 will become what the PS2 was last generation as the preferred platform for games. It won't sell as many consoles but it will sell enough to cement it's lead over the PS3. The Wii have completely shown it's weakness and will be supported by Nintendo 1st party games. Nintendo will play it smart though. Considering the power differences between the PS3, the 360, and the Wii, I don't think Nintendo spend as much time as the other companies working on the Wii. Instead they've only spent half the time working on the Wii and the other half making a "Next Gen Console"(Meaning the Generation after the Wii/360/PS3) This will place them in perfect position to launch first probably a year before MS and about 2 years before Sony. The PS3 will have the second largest user base, but the lowest attach rate of any system in recent memory. Sony will cut the price of the PS3, but at this point even a $100 price cut won't help. They will have gained solid control of the next gen format. Personally that's what I think they where going for all along. The PS3 shop will surpass Xbox Live in sales because Sony has so many entertainment avenues that MS does not.

Shadow I think your numbers for the end of this year are too low. I have all three consoles higher than that by year end. Remember, Nintendo moved over 1 million consoles per month in 2007 through March. Demand is still greater than supply, and supply is improving. Super Paper Mario and Golden Week will proppel Wii in Japan, as will Pokemon Wii in the Americas...I'm thinking Nintendo will announce that they expect to have 12 million Wii's sold through September. Then they announce they will be at 20-22 million by March 08'. I think LTD 18-19 million is realistic for the end of 2007. Sony will have modest sales in all three markets. Normally, that would be enough..but Microsoft has a one year lead, and Nintendo is like a greased up track star...you can never hold the guy long enough to knock him down, just too quick and slippery. Sony can 8-9 million by the end of the year, with around 1.5-2 million sold during the holiday period. Microsoft will be at 15 million by the end of 2007. Halo 3 will knock up 360 sales in September, GTA and Madden will be huge as well. 360 will win the holiday battle in the Americas. New IP will do well too, especially Assassin's Creed...but sales in Japan limit the 360's potential, as do lukewarm sales in Europe, when compared to Wii-madness and Sony love. Look at it this way: End 2006: 360 ~ 8.25 million?? Wii ~ 3.19 million PS3 ~ 1.25 million Late March 2007: 360 ~ 9.77 million Wii ~ 6.25 million PS3 ~ 2.80 million Late June 2007 (predicted) 360 ~ 11.25 million Wii ~ 9.5 million PS3 ~ 4.5 million Late Sept 2007 (predicted) Wii ~ 13.0 million 360 ~ 12.75 million PS3 ~ 6.0 million End of 2007 (predicted) Wii ~ 19.0 million 360 ~ 15.0 million PS3 ~ 9.0 million