The leading console has 48% of the market and this ratio is becoming smaller every week. PS2 and PS1 were absolute in their time, having nothing less than 80% of all the market.

I think this "tie" happens because the market is polarized between casual and hardcore. Since next-gen sony and MS WILL fight for both markets, and i believe Nintendo will comeback to the graphical race to fight to the hardcore as well, the market share will be even equal between the consoles.

The ratios could be closer because more people have more than one console compared to previous generations.

Nintendo won't go back to the graphical race. What will happen is that Sony and MS will make cheaper consoles than they did in the previous gen, so the graphical capabilities will be a lot closer.

With all the consoles investing in motion controls, and with similar graphics, I think we'll go back to seeing software as the main differentiator. That is unless one of the companies has something really revolutionary (which would most likely be Nintendo). So I agree it's a good possibility that the next gen will be closer.

I have three problems with this. One, 48% (49% if you round properly), 29% and 23% is nothing like a tie. Two, it's not getting smaller every week, just a few weeks ago Wii gained marketshare. And three, I can't remember when PS1 or PS2 had 80% marketshare.

Anyway, I think it's a little early to be predicting next gen.

Nintendo will most probably try to be differentiated in some way from the other two, with whatever cross-platform development consequences this migtht entail.

Myamoto has said , in a recent interview with EDGE if Im not mistaken, that they identify themselves with doing things differently . Their usp if you will is this Nintendo difference.

The difference will probably come from the user interface again I believe and there will be a natural increase in specs to support HD

I don't think that all the three companies will stay in the gaming market until the end of the next generation.

Why would Nintendo go back to the "graphical race?"

I honestly don't see why it would be closer. The only reason it's as close as it is now this gen, is because Sony and Microsoft decided they were okay with taking massive losses. They cannot continue this trend (Sony in particular). Taking on Nintendo without being able to subsidize gaming as much as they've been doing will not make things easy.

Both PS1 and PS2 had around 70%-73% marketshare if my calculations are correct, not 80%.

Wii is still dominating, just not as much as those 2 consoles.

Still, I think that with a PS2 last gen, you could play almost every game worth playing. Now, you need at least a HD console and a Wii to play most worthwile games.

What I say is, someona from Nintendo(don't remember who) said that they will make a powerhouse but the specs won't be the console main caracteristic. Like, DS was powerhouse when released but the main caracteristic is the dual screen.

I think Nintendo may come back to the graphical race because Sony and MS will fight for the casual market, they will fight for what belongs to Nintendo now. And I think Nintendo need to fight for what belongs to MS and Sony this gen in next one.

Sure, for 3rd party a dominant console in the market is pretty good, since them you don't have to make a game for several systems making the budget goes even higher.

Er, the only way this statistic is near correct is if you look at only total end userbases after the close of each generation.  Sony certainly didn't hold anything close to 80% marketshare in say 1997 or 2003...