They will in the short term.

You see, neither Zelda nor SMG2 will boost hardware, let alone the likes of Starfox, F-Zero, Metroid etc. (sad because the latter two are my favorite Ninty series)
I doubt Nintendo will ever be able sell the Wii for less than $129, so in the best case they have another mid-sized pricecut and a small one. Unless somewhat Nintendo manages to keep their momentum with something like Wii Sports the Return, Mario Kart Wii 2 and so on, I predict a massive hardware dip by 2011. You know, that is only my opinion but anyway it seems reasonable to me.

Not that it will matter or change the overall picture of things then if this prediction turns out to be true. Wii is just far too ahead to be reached by PS3/X360. It won't dip below 40% marketshare.

Those are good titles at best, most of those titles instead of pushing momentum make people lose their interest, i meant REAL casual games, not casual division developed games, or poor Wii Sports copies or anything of sorts i can use one hand to count good titles on that list, and those games barely push hardware, no one buys a console for Boom Blox or Cooking Mama (well, maybe a few)

It's not about "good" in our perspective, it's what casual gamers buy.

I would totally disagree that quality is irrelevant. The sea of Wii Fit and Wii Sports imitators occasionally produced a million seller, but I can guarantee you that these shallow knock-offs did nothing to perpetuate momentum. On the contrary, those types of games assuredly contributed to the relative slump that the Wii is experiencing right now.

What the Wii needs to regain momentum is a greater repertoire of high quality "staple titles" that every prospective and existing Wii owners feels is integral to the true Wii experience, and these titles need to apeal to everyone from the entire Olsen families of the real world to the Blunt_Smoka_123s of the forum world. There's a reason titles like Mario Kart Wii, Wii Play and Wii Sports Resort stay in the charts, as both new and lapsed Wii owners are picking them up as they discover or rediscover what the Wii is capable of.

Some of the games on that list of 'casual titles' must have helped preserve momentum in some way, as the majority of them are games that neophyte gamers would be able to recognize or identify with after experiencing or hearing about similar titles by Nintendo. A good example of this would be the LEGO games titles that complement the Wii's nature well, with their blissful simplicity, familiar content and multiplayer focus. If we examine the list closely, though, I'd say that many of those titles certainly had the potential to become staples, but they were denied the proper attention or backing necessary to become true hits.

The profusion of light gun games is particularly telling, and if someone were to make a well-endorsed light gun game that had tighter focus and a more inclusive theme than games such as House of the Dead or Umbrella Chronicles, like an expanded Duck Hunt of sorts, it would have serious potential to become another tentpole game for the Wii due to the accessibility and gratifying nature of the gamepay, not to mention its inherent inclination towards a multiplayer experience.  Super Monkey Ball is another series that seems to mesh well with the Wii, as they can be enjoyed by experienced and novice gamers alike, but Banana Blitz felt a bit too undercooked to truly become a staple title.

The biggest offender on that list is Boom Blox, though. EA may not have realized it, but Boom Blox more than definitely had the potential to become a staple title up there with the best of Nintendo's efforts. The game's controls maximize the Wii Remote's capabilities better than 98% of the rest of the Wii library, Nintendo included, and it harnesses them to create an experience that is immediately intuitive to anyone who picks up a controller. The concept could only have been done justice on Wii, the game is accessible like nobody's business, and the multiplayer experience is almost unparalled on the Wii. Before I show Mario Kart, Wario Ware, Wii Play or any other game, the first title I introduce anyone new to the Wii after Wii Sports is Boom Blox, and no one has not immediately loved it. Not my generally game-wary girlfriend, not my amateur grandma, not even my God of War/GTA fanatic best friend. This title legitimately had the power to sell people on the system's potential, and EA largely squandered that potential. As awesome as the game was, it felt in many ways half-baked and lacking in content and polish, but the true crime is that had EA taken the money it spent on shoddy Need for Speed conversions and shallow MySims spin-offs and given Boom Blox a heavier endorsement and gotten the game in people's hands, it could have been a phenomenon and helped to solidify EA's position as a premier Wii developer in the eyes of the Wii's newly converted customers.

Developers need to realize that titles like Wii Sports and Wii Fit were given the AAA treatment and a healthy marketing to back them up, and that is why they have enjoyed such explosive and consistent sales. Third parties need to realize that if they made a high quality product that legitimately focused on the Wii's strengths as an expansive, social experience and actually got the game in people's hands and minds, they too would enjoy that success.

If there were more titles like this, it would not only help convince people to buy a Wii but it would help ensure that existing Wii owners continue to buy more and more games. If such an environment were created, than the niche and enthusiast games would necessarily fall in step due to the healthy nature of the software climate and the Wii would finally be able to boast a library that matches the PS2 or NES in terms of diversity and stability.

Do you understand what "perspective" means?

they even with price cut drop year on year, while still selling great, i think it finally stabilize.
looking at black friday numbers, it was all wii fit doing.

I understand perspective and subjective nature of "good" as the notion that newly-inducted gamers may have different criteria as to what constitutes an enjoyable game. Imagine someone who's just about exhausted Wii Sports, is entirely new to the world of gaming and owns no other titles but would like to keep the Wii experience going. In such a scenario, one of two things will usually occur. Either that consumer, who is only familiar with Nintendo products and specifically Wii Sports, will look to other Nintendo-produced products for that experience, or they will look to games that look as though they will offer that same experience based on appearances, such as Big Beach Sports.

Now Consumer B may have a good time with Big Beach Sports, but are they likely to have a better time with it than Wii Sports? It is possible, but thoroughly unlikely. It is much more likely that the undeniable second-rate nature of the title will stymie their initial enthusiasm in the Wii experience. The "casual gamers" that everyone points to may be more likely to purchase these second-rate offerings, but that is because these titles are inherently designed to ensnare these gaming initiates and make a quick buck and unlike us enthusiast gamers they lack awareness of where the true quality lies. I absolutely agree that enjoyment derived from individual titles is subjective and that where one finds trash another finds treasure, but I see game quality as belong to the realm of objectivity. Poor game quality does not preclude enjoyment, but it severely hampers it.

Also, I have to say I wish we could dispel the notion of "casual gamer" as a second-rate human being. The fact that they don't spend hours dwelling on forums discussing how Earthbound may or not be the pinnacle achievement of gaming or salivating over a batch of 15 new screenshots being released for Call of Duty 7 doesn't mean that they are unable to discern whether a game is of high quality or not, as if we elite gamers possess some uniquely inherent ability to sort the shoddy from the superb. My girlfriend, who is taking baby steps into the world of gaming, can tell that Super Mario 64 is of a higher quality than Sonic Adventure 2: Battle just from observing my brothers and I play the two, though she may not be able to use the particular vocabulary that we enthusiasts have developed over the years to explain why that is.

"Casual gamers" are not mindless drones who mindlessly who consume poorly constructed titles without objection or evaluation, they are just lacking in the tools and resources we have developed to pick out the diamonds among the rough due to their inexperience.

That said, we also have to consider that perhaps these new gamers understand the faults and flaws of these games in terms of quality but derive enjoyment from these poorly constructed titles in other ways? A good example of this would be licensed titles. Most would agree that the majority of licensed titles that are based on movies are second-rate at best, as even the LEGO games could hardly be considered the paragon of game design. Despite this, many consumers are able to bask in the interactive participation in these worlds which fascinate them despite the title's numerous blemishes.

I suppose my argument is that any game that has any pretentions of truly sustaining or intensifying the Wii's momentum needs to marry this fascination with the world being explored to well-crafted game mechanics and design that appeal to everyone and do not prevent someone from finding enjoyment in it.

But there is certainly a difference between a good and bad "casual" title.  I'd recommend a game like Mario Party or Wii Sports over Carnival Games any day of the week, and this is why you see far more copies of titles like Carnival Games traded in at stores. 

Games like this were initially bought by new Wii owners awestruck by the novelty of the Wii Remote.  The games that best displayed this technoology in an easy to use and intuitive manner gained the most sales, but in the end many of them weren't very good games.  The people that bought them didn't play them for very long, and later traded them in.  The sequels to these 2+ million selling titles ended up performing far worse than the originals (Deca Sports vs Deca Sports 2, Carnival Games vs Carnival Games: Mini Golf, Game Party vs Game Party 2), meanwhile games like Wii Sports Resort are performing excellently compared to past Wii games.

Titles like Carnival Games weren't really "good" in anybody's perspective, nor were most of the titles on the list provided earlier, the exceptions being EA Active, the Lego titles, the Rayman titles, and a few others.  They just got lucky because they targeted a brand new corner of the market at a time when there was little for the market to play, and the franchises are not standing the test of time.

Yes they can, but they only need to make it into the next generation. Mainting the momentum alone for 3 generations I would say no. By mid next gen the early Wii kids will be moving into the developers positions and thus then will see a big rise in momentum support.