One thing to remember about the Smash Bros series: Super Smash Bros Melee is still selling very well.

I went to trade in my copy of SSBM when I bought Zack & Wiki and the Gamestop clerk almost hit me. Apparently that game still sells out and still has a high price tag even for a six year old game.

Halo 3 has had awesome sells but that game doesn't have near the legs that Melee has or Brawl will have. For the next year at least Halo 3 will be ahead of SSBB but expect SSBB to slowly widdle away over the next five years and continue to sell as Halo 3 sells just eventually stop.

Recently (I haven't checked lately), Halo 2 was still charting.

Saying Melee has better legs is just foolish. Since when do 3 year old games still chart?

As for SSBB, I think it will outsell H3 but it will be awhile.

my bets would be on ssbb outselling halo in the long run for the solo fact that i foresee the wii consol outselling the 360. it might have a lower attach rate then halo but overall sales will be higher. that said, i think that SMG will outsell ssbb no question. if there ever was a game that has mass pop appeal it's mario.

I agree. While the Wii continues to do amazing hardware numbers, the fact is that the casual crowd won't be attracted to most games.

I predict that Wii Fitness (or whatever it's called) will sell more than Smash Bros. will. Combined they might sell more than Halo.

Wii selling more than 360 doesn't come into play like you expect it to. People who bought the GameCube were gamers.  A large percentage of the people buying a Wii are not gamers. They're not going to buy software the same way a gamer would.

I know a couple of people with Wii's who don't care about anything other than Wii Sports and that's it. They're older, but like I said - a large percentage of people fall into that crowd as well...

I don't think Install base matters that much.

I mean, once you get a fairly big install base. Say about the level the 360 and Wii are at... you've got a lot of your "hardcore" base in.

So i'd expect a lot of hardcore games to sell the same. I mean Brawl is going to appeal mostly to Nintendo fans, who, likely owned a Gamecube last time, minus the ones who want the new characters or were brought in by Melee's hype.

Halo 3 is mostly going to appeal to Xbox fans who had the first Xbox, minus the people brought in by Halo 2 and the massive hype machine microsoft built up.

I expect Halo 3 to sell about a Half million more. Could be wrong who knows.

My money is on SSBB on the long run.

Halo 2's on line and its cult-like following has kept it selling. It will probably stop now because (a) Halo 3 is out and (b) Gamestop my "use list" all new Xbox games soon (they just did it to Gamecube).

That being said, SSBB will have both. I never meant to buy a Smash Brothers Game. I bought the N64 version at a yard sale because it was $5. I bought the GC version during a buy 2, get 1 free used game sale. Both have received a lot of play. I am now part of the cult and plan to get Brawl ASAR (as soon as released).

So where does this rambling statemnet take us. Brawl and Halo 3 will both sell for several years. But if current trends continue and the Wii will continues to be bought in higher numbers than the Xbox 360, it is very likely that Brawl will emerge. A 30 percent attach rate gives Brawl 9 M in sales on 30 M in hardware. If Halo 3 has a 40 percent attach rate but only sells 20M units, it sells 8M copies.

(Attach rates: SSMB 30.7%, Halo 26.6%, Halo 2 34.5%, Halo 3 45.3%)

What the heck is SSMB? Do you mean SSBM or SSBB?

Edit: I am sorry, but the context you are using them in is just plain confusing.