Alterego-X said:
Alby_da_Wolf said: ^^ You make some good points, I can't deny it, but you leap too fast to conclusions, maybe. About the old market shrinking, I suspect it's still more or less slowly growing, instead, but obviously Nintendo still having the whole new one all for itself, while MS and Sony must divide the old one, makes their slices look smaller.
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PS360 sales added together are still incredibly lower than last generation sales at this point.
You already claimed that Nintendo didn't take away a part of the old market, so apparently, the old market is now smaller than the PS2 alone after a similar time.
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^^
IIRC PS2 started at the price point PS3 is now. Avinash_Tyagy is totally right when he blames bloated costs for at least part of old market problems. Improved PS3 sales after the last cut seem to confirm this, although XB360 not doing so good as having been the cheapest for a year would make suppose is undeniably a sign that better focused efforts are needed too for the old market.
Also, Nintendo is quite successful to convert its last gen fans to Wii, judging from how many old gamers are in ferment for every new Mario, Zelda, Metroid, etc game released, so these really must be subtracted from overall old market, as Nintendo looks able to cater for both their old and new tastes. This doesn't rule out a growth, old market giving big signs of growth when both a decent price and a satisfying number of good games released requirements are met, should tell something about it.
But old market cost and innovation problems don't prove wrong that new style games can't always cater for old style tastes, you can't say "here, take this beautiful Wii Fit" to people wanting CoD, Halo, FF, GoW, etc. There are still tens million people with these tastes, and even more if we take into account people both liking old and new style, so, it will happen simply this: if the old SW houses are not enough efficient and aren't able to deliver enough quality (and novelty to justify another purchase), they'll fail and the free space they leave will be eventually filled by somebody else. It always happened in the past too. The only sad thing about this is that bad management, both economic and of team efficiency, often killed excellent SW houses and studios too, in this very instant I look at a game cover before me and I think about Looking Glass.
Bloated costs makes risk higher, but billions are still at stake: have you ever seen capitalists retreat in this situation? No, but they'll try to cut costs wherever possible. And many will die in the effort, many others will march over their corpses, as usual.