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Forums - Gaming - Malstrom: Nintendo’s Shield & Defense = “Sustained” Disruption?

Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Actually by moving against Nintendo, they realize that Nintendo is a threat to their market, that their market is in fact shrinking, the reasn is, the risks at moving into Nitnendo's ocean, is they risk alienating their long time supporters, and creating a backlash, so in fact the only reason they would try to move against Nintendo and co-opt the disruption is because they know its a threat.

Actually the idea is how the disrupted responds, is the most important, see if they successfully adopt the new market principles, they can prevent the disruptor from moving upstream and have succeeded in co-opting the disruption, right now the NATAL and Wand don't show signs of being able to do that, they show that MS and Sony don't really get what Nintendo is doing.

Actually the market is moving away from the old one, which is why the old market is faced with so many financial issues, a healthy market doesn't have the problems that the HD market is having, with companies laying off by the boatloads, and developers and publishers going under. There are signs of a dying market.

Facts actually do not back this.

 

When 2009 is over and people do the revenue comparison with 2008 they will realize that HD market in $ was fairly stable while the Wii market saw a very significant decline that year...( due to the limited numbers we will only be able to compute this for the US thanks to NPD though).

So basically this new market Nintendo supposedly found is collapsing very fast...

Revenue for the first half was abnormally high in 2008 due to killer apps (Mario Kart, Smash Brawl, Wii Fit) while the latter half sank.  This year it's basically the opposite, an empty first half with all the killer apps loaded in the latter (Wii Sports Resort, Monster Hunter 3, Wii Fit Plus, New Super Mario).  We'll have to wait until the year's actually over to see if this market is "collapsing" as you claim.



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Alterego-X said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
^^
You make some good points, I can't deny it, but you leap too fast to conclusions, maybe.
About the old market shrinking, I suspect it's still more or less slowly growing, instead, but obviously Nintendo still having the whole new one all for itself, while MS and Sony must divide the old one, makes their slices look smaller.

PS360 sales added together are still incredibly lower than last generation sales at this point. 

You already claimed that Nintendo didn't take away a part of the old market, so apparently, the old market is now smaller than the PS2 alone after a similar time. 

^^
IIRC PS2 started at the price point PS3 is now. Avinash_Tyagy is totally right when he blames bloated costs for at least part of old market problems. Improved PS3 sales after the last cut seem to confirm this, although XB360 not doing so good as having been the cheapest for a year would make suppose is undeniably a sign that better focused efforts are needed too for the old market.
Also, Nintendo is quite successful to convert its last gen fans to Wii, judging from how many old gamers are in ferment for every new Mario, Zelda, Metroid, etc game released, so these really must be subtracted from overall old market, as Nintendo looks able to cater for both their old and new tastes. This doesn't rule out a growth, old market giving big signs of growth when both a decent price and a satisfying number of good games released requirements are met, should tell something about it.
But old market cost and innovation problems don't prove wrong that new style games can't always cater for old style tastes, you can't say  "here, take this beautiful Wii Fit" to people wanting CoD, Halo, FF, GoW, etc. There are still tens million people with these tastes, and even more if we take into account people both liking old and new style, so, it will happen simply this: if the old SW houses are not enough efficient and aren't able to deliver enough quality (and novelty to justify another purchase), they'll fail and the free space they leave will be eventually filled by somebody else. It always happened in the past too. The only sad thing about this is that bad management, both economic and of team efficiency, often killed excellent SW houses and studios too, in this very instant I look at a game cover before me and I think about Looking Glass.

Bloated costs makes risk higher, but billions are still at stake: have you ever seen capitalists retreat in this situation? No, but they'll try to cut costs wherever possible. And many will die in the effort, many others will march over their corpses, as usual.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Alby_da_Wolf said:
Alterego-X said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
^^
You make some good points, I can't deny it, but you leap too fast to conclusions, maybe.
About the old market shrinking, I suspect it's still more or less slowly growing, instead, but obviously Nintendo still having the whole new one all for itself, while MS and Sony must divide the old one, makes their slices look smaller.

PS360 sales added together are still incredibly lower than last generation sales at this point. 

You already claimed that Nintendo didn't take away a part of the old market, so apparently, the old market is now smaller than the PS2 alone after a similar time. 

^^
IIRC PS2 started at the price point PS3 is now. Avinash_Tyagy is totally right when he blames bloated costs for at least part of old market problems. Improved PS3 sales after the last cut seem to confirm this, although XB360 not doing so good as having been the cheapest for a year would make suppose is undeniably a sign that better focused efforts are needed too for the old market.
Also, Nintendo is quite successful to convert its last gen fans to Wii, judging from how many old gamers are in ferment for every new Mario, Zelda, Metroid, etc game released, so these really must be subtracted from overall old market, as Nintendo looks able to cater for both their old and new tastes. This doesn't rule out a growth, old market giving big signs of growth when both a decent price and a satisfying number of good games released requirements are met, should tell something about it.
But old market cost and innovation problems don't prove wrong that new style games can't always cater for old style tastes, you can't say  "here, take this beautiful Wii Fit" to people wanting CoD, Halo, FF, GoW, etc. There are still tens million people with these tastes, and even more if we take into account people both liking old and new style, so, it will happen simply this: if the old SW houses are not enough efficient and aren't able to deliver enough quality (and novelty to justify another purchase), they'll fail and the free space they leave will be eventually filled by somebody else. It always happened in the past too. The only sad thing about this is that bad management, both economic and of team efficiency, often killed excellent SW houses and studios too, in this very instant I look at a game cover before me and I think about Looking Glass.

Bloated costs makes risk higher, but billions are still at stake: have you ever seen capitalists retreat in this situation? No, but they'll try to cut costs wherever possible. And many will die in the effort, many others will march over their corpses, as usual.


Just curious: How many price drops did PS2 recieve in comparison to when the Wii received its first price cut?



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

Avin, Maelstrom has a website to himself, please refer to that instead of constantly linking it to vgc.

I find since this is a forum I'd have more value placed in your own conclusions rather than you jot down someone else and make a thread about it.

Unless of course you have some other agenda.



I'm Unamerica and you can too.

The Official Huge Monster Hunter Thread: 



The Hunt Begins 4/20/2010 =D

@Ail

You can't just look at revenue and say that a market is collapsing.

I could sell 10 pictures worth 3 million each over the year while someone sells 3 million pictures worth 20 cents each. Clearly neither market is collapsing or rising based on revenue or to be more overt; revenue can not indicate that a market is collapsing or rising.

You can look at a revenue and tell how much money that company was throwing around, and that's about it. Without understanding the costs of the different divisions revenue cannot be the ink to paint a good picture, even then the picture has less to do with market population and more to do with the companies health as to the investors share.



I'm Unamerica and you can too.

The Official Huge Monster Hunter Thread: 



The Hunt Begins 4/20/2010 =D

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dib8rman said:

@Ail

You can't just look at revenue and say that a market is collapsing.

I could sell 10 pictures worth 3 million each over the year while someone sells 3 million pictures worth 20 cents each. Clearly neither market is collapsing or rising based on revenue or to be more overt; revenue can not indicate that a market is collapsing or rising.

You can look at a revenue and tell how much money that company was throwing around, and that's about it. Without understanding the costs of the different divisions revenue cannot be the ink to paint a good picture, even then the picture has less to do with market population and more to do with the companies health as to the investors share.

I am not looking at revenue in terms of companies profit.

I am looking at it in terms of consumer spending which is the main indicators economists have used for 100s of years to determine how a specific market evolves...............

 



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Arius Dion said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Alterego-X said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
^^
You make some good points, I can't deny it, but you leap too fast to conclusions, maybe.
About the old market shrinking, I suspect it's still more or less slowly growing, instead, but obviously Nintendo still having the whole new one all for itself, while MS and Sony must divide the old one, makes their slices look smaller.

PS360 sales added together are still incredibly lower than last generation sales at this point. 

You already claimed that Nintendo didn't take away a part of the old market, so apparently, the old market is now smaller than the PS2 alone after a similar time. 

^^
IIRC PS2 started at the price point PS3 is now. Avinash_Tyagy is totally right when he blames bloated costs for at least part of old market problems. Improved PS3 sales after the last cut seem to confirm this, although XB360 not doing so good as having been the cheapest for a year would make suppose is undeniably a sign that better focused efforts are needed too for the old market.
Also, Nintendo is quite successful to convert its last gen fans to Wii, judging from how many old gamers are in ferment for every new Mario, Zelda, Metroid, etc game released, so these really must be subtracted from overall old market, as Nintendo looks able to cater for both their old and new tastes. This doesn't rule out a growth, old market giving big signs of growth when both a decent price and a satisfying number of good games released requirements are met, should tell something about it.
But old market cost and innovation problems don't prove wrong that new style games can't always cater for old style tastes, you can't say  "here, take this beautiful Wii Fit" to people wanting CoD, Halo, FF, GoW, etc. There are still tens million people with these tastes, and even more if we take into account people both liking old and new style, so, it will happen simply this: if the old SW houses are not enough efficient and aren't able to deliver enough quality (and novelty to justify another purchase), they'll fail and the free space they leave will be eventually filled by somebody else. It always happened in the past too. The only sad thing about this is that bad management, both economic and of team efficiency, often killed excellent SW houses and studios too, in this very instant I look at a game cover before me and I think about Looking Glass.

Bloated costs makes risk higher, but billions are still at stake: have you ever seen capitalists retreat in this situation? No, but they'll try to cut costs wherever possible. And many will die in the effort, many others will march over their corpses, as usual.


Just curious: How many price drops did PS2 recieve in comparison to when the Wii received its first price cut?

PS3 was already on it's 3rd US pricecut (4th JP pricecut) by the time Wii got it's first drop.



jarrod said:
Arius Dion said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Alterego-X said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
^^
You make some good points, I can't deny it, but you leap too fast to conclusions, maybe.
About the old market shrinking, I suspect it's still more or less slowly growing, instead, but obviously Nintendo still having the whole new one all for itself, while MS and Sony must divide the old one, makes their slices look smaller.

PS360 sales added together are still incredibly lower than last generation sales at this point. 

You already claimed that Nintendo didn't take away a part of the old market, so apparently, the old market is now smaller than the PS2 alone after a similar time. 

^^
IIRC PS2 started at the price point PS3 is now. Avinash_Tyagy is totally right when he blames bloated costs for at least part of old market problems. Improved PS3 sales after the last cut seem to confirm this, although XB360 not doing so good as having been the cheapest for a year would make suppose is undeniably a sign that better focused efforts are needed too for the old market.
Also, Nintendo is quite successful to convert its last gen fans to Wii, judging from how many old gamers are in ferment for every new Mario, Zelda, Metroid, etc game released, so these really must be subtracted from overall old market, as Nintendo looks able to cater for both their old and new tastes. This doesn't rule out a growth, old market giving big signs of growth when both a decent price and a satisfying number of good games released requirements are met, should tell something about it.
But old market cost and innovation problems don't prove wrong that new style games can't always cater for old style tastes, you can't say  "here, take this beautiful Wii Fit" to people wanting CoD, Halo, FF, GoW, etc. There are still tens million people with these tastes, and even more if we take into account people both liking old and new style, so, it will happen simply this: if the old SW houses are not enough efficient and aren't able to deliver enough quality (and novelty to justify another purchase), they'll fail and the free space they leave will be eventually filled by somebody else. It always happened in the past too. The only sad thing about this is that bad management, both economic and of team efficiency, often killed excellent SW houses and studios too, in this very instant I look at a game cover before me and I think about Looking Glass.

Bloated costs makes risk higher, but billions are still at stake: have you ever seen capitalists retreat in this situation? No, but they'll try to cut costs wherever possible. And many will die in the effort, many others will march over their corpses, as usual.


Just curious: How many price drops did PS2 recieve in comparison to when the Wii received its first price cut?

PS3 was already on it's 3rd US pricecut (4th JP pricecut) by the time Wii got it's first drop.

Yeah I knew that ;) (sorta lol) But I meant PS2 didn't it receive like 2 price cuts in the same time frame Wii received 1?



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Actually by moving against Nintendo, they realize that Nintendo is a threat to their market, that their market is in fact shrinking, the reasn is, the risks at moving into Nitnendo's ocean, is they risk alienating their long time supporters, and creating a backlash, so in fact the only reason they would try to move against Nintendo and co-opt the disruption is because they know its a threat.

Actually the idea is how the disrupted responds, is the most important, see if they successfully adopt the new market principles, they can prevent the disruptor from moving upstream and have succeeded in co-opting the disruption, right now the NATAL and Wand don't show signs of being able to do that, they show that MS and Sony don't really get what Nintendo is doing.

Actually the market is moving away from the old one, which is why the old market is faced with so many financial issues, a healthy market doesn't have the problems that the HD market is having, with companies laying off by the boatloads, and developers and publishers going under. There are signs of a dying market.

Facts actually do not back this.

 

When 2009 is over and people do the revenue comparison with 2008 they will realize that HD market in $ was fairly stable while the Wii market saw a very significant decline that year...( due to the limited numbers we will only be able to compute this for the US thanks to NPD though).

So basically this new market Nintendo supposedly found is collapsing very fast...

No, actually what we saw is if you don't release games you'll see your sales plummet, NSMB Wii however shows the market is very healthy, just was waiting for content



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi said:
Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Actually by moving against Nintendo, they realize that Nintendo is a threat to their market, that their market is in fact shrinking, the reasn is, the risks at moving into Nitnendo's ocean, is they risk alienating their long time supporters, and creating a backlash, so in fact the only reason they would try to move against Nintendo and co-opt the disruption is because they know its a threat.

Actually the idea is how the disrupted responds, is the most important, see if they successfully adopt the new market principles, they can prevent the disruptor from moving upstream and have succeeded in co-opting the disruption, right now the NATAL and Wand don't show signs of being able to do that, they show that MS and Sony don't really get what Nintendo is doing.

Actually the market is moving away from the old one, which is why the old market is faced with so many financial issues, a healthy market doesn't have the problems that the HD market is having, with companies laying off by the boatloads, and developers and publishers going under. There are signs of a dying market.

Facts actually do not back this.

 

When 2009 is over and people do the revenue comparison with 2008 they will realize that HD market in $ was fairly stable while the Wii market saw a very significant decline that year...( due to the limited numbers we will only be able to compute this for the US thanks to NPD though).

So basically this new market Nintendo supposedly found is collapsing very fast...

No, actually what we saw is if you don't release games you'll see your sales plummet, NSMB Wii however shows the market is very healthy, just was waiting for content

 

Due to the Wii price drop coupled with the current hardware/software projections by Nintendo there is no way around it, customer spending related to the Wii will have decreased very significantly this year( at least by 20-25% based on Nintendo projections)... Now if you tell me that if Nintendo doesn't release a couple good games the whole Wii environment suffers terribly that is not good news.

The real issue is that in a recession period it seems Wii customers cut spending more on games/console than HD console customers..

Basically if they have to give up something, games will be among the first on that list. 

 

By comparison, Xbox360 related revenue will most likely be flat ( hardware revenue down due to full year at price cut compared to only 3 months in 2008 but software revenue up significantly). 

PS3 revenue will be up despite the price cut ( hardware revenue even or slightly up, software revenue up very significantly).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !