-2mil

im in the 12th grade, but im not learning how to add/subtract numbers. so i can still say 2.5 million

this. have people already forgotten? 360 was 100k behind ps3 weekly before the walmart deal.

So, what kind of cookie do I win if I get this right?

Eh, the same as in all other prediction threads oO Odd question considering the time you've spent here.

You're too focused on the worldwide percentages and the assumption those will remain constant within the next few months. Sales trends differ from area to area so worldwide percentages will be influences by those as well. As for comparison to earlier years, Xbox 360 even sold more than 2,5 million in 2007 when it didn't have a great holiday like last year.

Xbox 360 will outsell the PS3 1 million based on koffieboon's logic.

Yes, focused on regional sales only Japan and Other should put PS3 about 100k ahead 360 next week and this number (gap) should increase with the coming weeks to about 200-300k on FFXIII release week.

360 sales should be similar to the PS3 sales last year, around 2.5m until end of year.

And if you remember the PS3 was selling a little more than 360 in the America before the Walmart deal. Wait for the numbers of this weeks to see how things return to normal.

There could be more $99 and crazy good bundle deals, making this very hard to predict.

The UK, Australia and US(I'd personally include Scandinavia too) might be the 360's only real market, but it's a very strong one and the lack of language barriers(apart from Americans sucking at English :p) propels the WoM effect.

Care to elaborate where I'm saying this? Maybe that way you can actually add something useful the discussion

I'm not sure if you understand what I'm saying. Xbox 360 has been down 30% compared to last year, but it is only slightly down in the Americas and a lot more in Others. Holiday sales in the Americas provide a bigger bump in sales so if the year over year comparison per area stays the same (so slightly down in the Americas and a lot more in Others) worldwide the percentage will improve. As an example:

Lets say last year sales before the holidays were 100 units in area A en 100 units in area B for a combined total of 200 units. The holidays provided a 400% increase in area A and a 200% increase in area B, resulting in 500 units being sold in area A and 300 units being sold in area B. Total sales for both areas combined were 800 units.

Now this year sales are 90 units in area A and 50 units in area B, for a combined total of 140 units. So sales are down by 30% before the holidays. The holiday increase stays the same, so 400% and 200%, so sales for area A ends up at 450 units and at 150 units for area B. Combined sales are at 600 units, which is only a 25% decrease compared to last year.

As for the numbers you're using, there are only 7 weeks left before the end of 2009. So if PS3 wants to outsell Xbox 360 by 2 million in that timeframe the difference needs to be 300k on average, so if it only does so in its best week (the one where FF XIII releases) it will easily fall short of that target. Unless of course the Americas also provide a significant difference, but I can't really see that one provide a big difference either way. Also I get 2,84 million PS3s and 4,38 million Xbox 360s sold from the 16th of November until the 3rd of January 2009. So selling like PS3 last year or selling 30% less than last year both end up clearly above 2,5 million.