@munkeh

xactly

I have many friends who are buying it at xmas..

Here is the breakdown for what has happened so far;

360 2006 for Q1+Q2+Q3 (calender quarters so January through September)

Then for last years Q4 period

 And 2007 for Q1+Q2+Q3

So in it's first year the 360 sold 3.48M for Q1,2,3...... and 3.16M for Q4

For this year the 360 sold 3.74M for Q1,2,3
However there are many arguments as to why it did better for 2007:Q1,2,3   first it was supply constrained for the early part of 2006, and in Q4 it became massively available so helped it up to 3.16.....This year it has been widely available all the time, so although you would think this years Q1,2,3 being better means Q4 will be, It might not happen.
I expect very similar sales to last year. maybe 3.5 million, with about 200k more in America than last year, 150k more in Eu (seemed to have a bad christmas last year) and 50k more in Japan.

I think the 360 will be down on Europe last year, as the PS3 will actually be taking away a decent amount of sales there

360 will top 4-5 million this quarter. Mostly in North America and they will make some minor inroads in Japan.

Europe will be considered a loss unless 360 gets a price cut.

If 360 gets a price cut it will sell out everywhere except Japan.

in the last year .. in US Oct.
60+53+55+66=234k
in this year in Oct.
only three weeks > 360k
IT CAN!

That really wasn't my question but I will offer this on the Wii console.  I still don't believe that the 360 and Wii are competing for the same sets of dollars.  Yeah, there is some crossover, but I don't think Wii availability or lack thereof will have a significant effect on the 360/PS3 over the holiday.

Back on topic, please.  Will the 360 be able to do 3.2 million again over this holiday season? 

last year on others (Oct.)
22+20+21+26=89k
this year (Oct.)
55+42+37=134k !
IT CAN!

last year japan (Oct.)
2+1.7+1.3+1.4 =6.4
this year ( i don't know what happend .. the number was higher ! )
2.3 + 3.4 = 5.7 !!
IT CAN !

I think a lot of this depends on the marketing push for Mass Effect. The guys at Bioware have said that MS intends to go all-out with the promotion for the game and push it out there with a Gears of War style ad campaign. If you'll recall, there was a number of outstanding TV ads for Gears last year around the holidays and I believe that was a direct contributor to the the console itself selling hot, not just the game.

If Mass Effect is all over the media in the same way, and taking into mind the continual coverage of Halo that we're seeing, I would expect that the 360 could very well increase sales YOY.

last year WW (Oct.)
234+89+6.4=329.4(in 4 weeks)
this year
416+134+5.7=555.7k (in 3 weeks - one in japan !!!!)
IT REALY CAN !!!!