I agree the current sales of the 360 are surprising. I expect the trend to carry into the Holidays actually but I think the post-holiday sales dip will see a return to what was previously normal sales. It should mean some very solid holiday numbers for the 360.

Actually, with this new trend in mind the 360 could do very well relative to the PS3 this holiday.

The 360 will sell well no doubt. The wii will be supply constrained no doubt. The demand for each system will NOT be reflected by their sales. I think the wii will have an incredible amount of demand that will move systems for a long time to come. A perpetual christmas season if you will. The 360 will do really well short term though, I'm just not convinced, hopeful, but not convinced it will continue that "trend" long-term.

both Wii and 360 look to be really hot this holiday season. The increase in supply and big games coming should put the wii ahead, and the wii is gonna be bought as a present by far more people than a 360 is in december. In October 360 could beat the Wii again but in november nintendo will take a lead and december there should be a pretty big lead even though 360 numbers will be impressive anyway.

While I don't necessarily think the Wii's lead will be "big" during December (mainly because Nintendo has to feed enormous appetites in three markets vs. one enormous market and two mediocre/bad for MS), I think it will have a lead.

My entire point was that I think the 360 can keep it close for the next two months, which after the past year or so is a huge coup for Microsoft.

 I'm curious, what is considered "previously normal sales"? Are we talking late August? Or are we talking the dismal levels seen in say, May? 

 Because I believe that the 360 will see a significant increase in sales next year over this year. My reasons are that first, there is more reason to get one then than there was in April 2007, and it's cheaper too. Also, as time goes on, prices go down, and the game library becomes more robust, I think a console's 2nd to 5th year should see a continual year over year increase in sales  or it's in alot of trouble, and I don't see why the 360 should see a decline in 2008. 

I think the sales trend is heavily influenced by Halo - but will have momentum. Thzerefore, I think the 360 will sell a good amount of units in the US and will this way remain the market leader in this area.

I think supply constraints arguments are overrated. What is important is how many units of each system get sold.

Here is to a good, close and dirty battle.

360 will do well but don't expect it to last, realize that the 360 has spent much of its reserves of late adopters with Halo3, while its continuing to do well this momentum is quite exhaustable, in fact Halo 3 may both hurt and benefit holiday sales in its own respect, while it creates a demand for the 360 this holiday season it has already sold many 360s that would have most likely made up much of the 360's holiday sales..

In all fairness, people need to make up their minds.

Position A: All people who like Halo bought the 360 before it released.

Position B: All people who like Halo bought it when it launched.

Position C: All people who like Halo bought it after the initial rush.

Well, we're sitting here a month after Halo and the 360 is still selling like unmarked pistols in Watts. After awhile, someone has to make up their mind as to what is going on with the 360.

At this point no one really knows, and making up your mind based on a situation that could go any direction with equal possibility is just dangerous. Speculation is all we can offer now, not answers, it really boils down to whether you want this prediction of the 360 turning the corner to be true or not.

I think halo will fade of until the end of November. I think halo 3 will help the 360 at Christmas. Just by guessing how many people played still Halo 2 before Halo 3 comes out, i would guess that 360+halo 3 will be a present under a lot of trees this year in the NA.