The number of people converting from DVD? It's extremely low in my opinion. People claim it will rise as HD-TV adoption rises, but that's not typically how it works.

I mean, DVD had a heck of a time killing VHS. DVD had a large number of advantages over VHS. Menu selction, screen selection, smaller then VHS, don't deteriorate over time as eaisly, not as eaisly damaged by the player... etc.

High Def formats only have two advantages.

1. They look better. (So do DVDs over VHS if i remember right.)

2. They can store more on one disc. (I think, i'm sure HD Content takes up more room.)

The problem being... only 1 is a real advantage... because the average consumer see's something like "House Season 3" in regular and Hi-Def, and they see the House DVD version has 6 DVDS while the HD-DVD version only has 1 DVD so they buy the DVD version. Because their is something built in their heads where "More = Better." when it comes to the number of discs physcially.

This is why you'll notice that TV shows and other things with more then two discs end up using the exact same amount of discs as DVD.

In the end in my opinion, HD-DVD will likely die, and Blu-Ray will ened up a Niche market that catches maybe 10% of the market before a real advance comes out.