I think Wii will get a lot closer to 50% market share this holiday, mainly off the strength of the price cut, no more shortages, and NSMB Wii coupled with the continuing strength of Wii Fit+ and WSR. Whether it will ever breach the 50% marketshare overall is a tough call, really depends on whether Nintendo can get another major Wii hit on their hands. I think it'll happen eventually, just a matter of time. One thing is for sure, 3rd parties can no longer ignore the Wii userbase as it is getting very close to the 360+PS3 combined userbase (especially when you consider that there is obviously some overlap between PS3 and 360 users)

How is it fairly obvious?

The gap is only 3.5 mil. When the Wii / HD consoles each are probably going to end up selling another 60 million more consoles or so, that isn't a very big number. Looking at the current situation doesn't tell us enough about what will happen in the consoles' later years, which is what really counts. This is what I mean:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 01st Jan 2006 to 24th Oct 2009:

I'm not saying the Wii is going to pull something like this off, just pointing out that these things happen.

@disolitude:

It's all about taste. I have a PC, so the HD consoles aren't as appealing, and the Wii ends up getting my (console) attention.

The Wii can do it, the next line up's gonna be awesome compared to previous years...that's all I've to say lol

Or is it obvious because every single trend has been broken this gen =)

It is definitely the most interesting saleswise.

Yep it sure did.

And now? HAHAHAHA!

So who cares if it doesnt get to 50% in the long run? it already made more than what anyone imagined it would when it launched. also it proved that it is the dominant console of the gen because it managed to stay above ps3 even after their relaunched with the slim. that to me was most impresive cause I thought the ps3 would start outselling by over at least 50k (speacially with the decreasing wii #s of the past weeks). but the wii proved it could survive the ps3 price cut and increase its sales (while the ps3 dropped it sales after the price cut except for u2 release week the wii has been increasing sales weekly since its cut)

One of the biggest determining factors could be how compatible this gen's controlers are with Nintendo's next system and when/if Nintendo releases a Wii Fit like product for said system.

Potentially the home fitness crowd could be buying the wii past the end of this gen in numbers that will put the PS2 to shame. If that happens 50% market share is pretty much guarented.

I could. Would you lik me to? It souonds like a challenge, and I do love those!

The chart was illustrating my point.

What trend is telling you how long the consoles' lifespan will be? You say this gen is nothing like last gen, so how are you predicting what the consoles will sell like in their 6th, 7th, or 8th years?

Do you think the Wii will be the first (winning) console ever to have a lifespan equal (or smaller, due to the 360 releasing earlier) to losing consoles? Even if you do, I don't see how that is an obvious conclusion.