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Forums - Gaming - The reality of DVD vs Blu Ray vs Digital Distibution. As of October 20 2009

heruamon on 22 October 2009
Alby_da_Wolf said:
The most hilarious thing is: why didn't Selnor tell MS about the future of DD vs physical format BEFORE it lost billions on HD-DVD?

WOW...M$ invested BILLIONS in HD-DVD....and they didn't even included it as a core into Xbox 360...interesting.



"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

- From By Schism Rent Asunder

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Loud_Hot_White_Box on 22 October 2009
Alby_da_Wolf said:
The most hilarious thing is: why didn't Selnor tell MS about the future of DD vs physical format BEFORE it lost billions on HD-DVD?

I'd put their losses at tens or hundreds of millions, but very good point.

Meanwhile Sony is doing DD, benefits further from all downloads of Sony movies anyway, and has Blu-Ray.



heruamon on 22 October 2009
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
The most hilarious thing is: why didn't Selnor tell MS about the future of DD vs physical format BEFORE it lost billions on HD-DVD?

I'd put their losses at tens or hundreds of millions, but very good point.

Meanwhile Sony is doing DD, benefits further from all downloads of Sony movies anyway, and has Blu-Ray.

Based on what analysis?  Losses with WHAT?  Advertising?



"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

- From By Schism Rent Asunder

damndl0ser on 22 October 2009

I would love to see where he come up with those numbers.



"If you've got them by the balls their hearts and minds will follow."

Quote by- The Imortal John Wayne, the original BADASS!

 

 

 

Loud_Hot_White_Box on 22 October 2009
heruamon said:
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
The most hilarious thing is: why didn't Selnor tell MS about the future of DD vs physical format BEFORE it lost billions on HD-DVD?

I'd put their losses at tens or hundreds of millions, but very good point.

Meanwhile Sony is doing DD, benefits further from all downloads of Sony movies anyway, and has Blu-Ray.

Based on what analysis?  Losses with WHAT?  Advertising?
Weren't HD laser diodes more expensive than the drives back in the day?  Even if not, yeah, they spent money on advertising costs plus whatever money they thought worth it to kick into their HD-DVD camp, considering that MS would have made money off their codecs, patents and such being used in HD-DVDs if that format had won.
If we're just talking over $10 million, then yeah, probably just advertising could do it -- plus all the salaries paid to MS people and all their "support" for HD-DVD, which wasn't free.  And if they had a money-making goal in mind, they spent money in the effort to make it.


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heruamon on 22 October 2009
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
heruamon said:
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
The most hilarious thing is: why didn't Selnor tell MS about the future of DD vs physical format BEFORE it lost billions on HD-DVD?

I'd put their losses at tens or hundreds of millions, but very good point.

Meanwhile Sony is doing DD, benefits further from all downloads of Sony movies anyway, and has Blu-Ray.

Based on what analysis?  Losses with WHAT?  Advertising?
Weren't HD laser diodes more expensive than the drives back in the day?  Even if not, yeah, they spent money on advertising costs plus whatever money they thought worth it to kick into their HD-DVD camp, considering that MS would have made money off their codecs, patents and such being used in HD-DVDs if that format had won.
If we're just talking over $10 million, then yeah, probably just advertising could do it -- plus all the salaries paid to MS people and all their "support" for HD-DVD, which wasn't free.  And if they had a money-making goal in mind, they spent money in the effort to make it.

Okay...if you can glean a $$$ figure off  that post and link to the tune of hundreds of millions...go right ahead.  And just where did M$ expense those losses in quarterly reports? 



"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

- From By Schism Rent Asunder

damndl0ser on 22 October 2009
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
heruamon said:
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
The most hilarious thing is: why didn't Selnor tell MS about the future of DD vs physical format BEFORE it lost billions on HD-DVD?

I'd put their losses at tens or hundreds of millions, but very good point.

Meanwhile Sony is doing DD, benefits further from all downloads of Sony movies anyway, and has Blu-Ray.

Based on what analysis?  Losses with WHAT?  Advertising?
Weren't HD laser diodes more expensive than the drives back in the day?  Even if not, yeah, they spent money on advertising costs plus whatever money they thought worth it to kick into their HD-DVD camp, considering that MS would have made money off their codecs, patents and such being used in HD-DVDs if that format had won.
If we're just talking over $10 million, then yeah, probably just advertising could do it -- plus all the salaries paid to MS people and all their "support" for HD-DVD, which wasn't free.  And if they had a money-making goal in mind, they spent money in the effort to make it.

HD-DVD was much similar to DVD and the diodes and the actual media cost much less than Blu-Ray to produce.  Your acting like Microsoft never sold any of those HD-DVD players and recouped any of its investment.   Sure they lost some money but to say it lost hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars is rediculous.  Esp... considering they weren't the main investors of the format.  



"If you've got them by the balls their hearts and minds will follow."

Quote by- The Imortal John Wayne, the original BADASS!

 

 

 

makingmusic476 on 22 October 2009
selnor said:
WereKitten said:
selnor said:
WereKitten said:
selnor said:
^
...
@ PullusPardus.

18% marketshare for DD, only 4% for BluRay. It has happened faster than anyone would have predicted.

Wrong, read the article:

- digital distribution up 18% over last quarter, to a total of about 10% market share

- Blu-Ray up 66.3% over last quarter, to a total of about 4% market share

Want to make a bet on which market share is going to grow faster over the holidays period and in the following months? With the Blu-Ray players being as cheap as they are now and surely replacing DVD players in the mass market at a growing rate, do you really think that BD won't cannibalize the DVD market quick enough to be the relevant alternative to DD in a few years?

Um I read the article again. There is nowhere that says BluRay went from 3-4% marketshare ( thats about 66.3% increase you claim for software sales. )

But yes I made a mistake. DD has 10% marketshare. Considering DD really only took off properly on Live 2 years ago extensively, and now this christmas we have 1080p just introduced.

I am willing to take your bet. Because the figures I have seen for Bluray software sales have declined for 18 months. With a few spikes.

Just search for the number. From the article:

"In its news release with the data, DEG attempted to highlight sales of Blu-ray disc sales, which rose an impressive 66.3% in the quarter."

Ah yes. Thanks. And sorry if I doubted you. :)

The thing though is with Bluray marketshare so low, 4% 60% increase isn't that much marketshare. The more marketshare you have the harder it is to hit higher numbers of % increase. I predicted ages ago that BluRay would reach about 28-30% marketshare at the most and die off. I still hold by that.

DVD after 3 years had 22% marketshare against VHS sales.(2001) However in 2002 DVD had 59% marketshare. This is all based on actual disc sales. Not sales of PS3's where noone buys a BluRay movie. So with this in mind for BluRay to be even clode to the adoption of DVD it should be around 20% marketshare as of March 2009. March 2010 which will be BluRay's 4th year it should be leading in software sales. DVD had 59% marketshare even though households on average had 70% VHS's and 30% DVD players. Trouble is BluRay is sharing its space with DD. And DD will never ever fade but only get stronger. Wheras physical media will always die. But noone predicted Movie downloads to move quicker than BluRay, effectively it's been the 360 and Live pioneering the push to.

66.3% of 4% = 2.65% increase
18% of 10% = 1.8% increase

Which means Blu-ray increased in total marketshare by more than digital distribution last quarter.  Which one is more impressive now?



Loud_Hot_White_Box on 22 October 2009
heruamon said:
 

Okay...if you can glean a $$$ figure off  that post and link to the tune of hundreds of millions...go right ahead.  And just where did M$ expense those losses in quarterly reports? 

I said tens or hundreds, slashing the original estimate by a factor of 100, btw.

If you can't prove from MS quarterly expense reports that MS didn't spend money on an attempt to make money, then you are wrong.  Logical?  Cause that's the same argument back at you.

The article suggested a continued effort by MS to make money, which would entail salaries and perhaps advertising payments, which would entail costs.  Then I'm suggesting by induction that there would be some kind of dollar figure attached.  I know, if I can't find the dollar figure, it doesn't exist at all.

 

 

and back ON topic: Blu-ray sales up 99% YoY first half of this year, 61% YoY second half of this year!  ^^ oh snap, good mathematics skillz, makingmusic!!



heruamon on 22 October 2009
makingmusic476 said:
selnor said:
WereKitten said:
selnor said:
WereKitten said:
selnor said:
^
...
@ PullusPardus.

18% marketshare for DD, only 4% for BluRay. It has happened faster than anyone would have predicted.

Wrong, read the article:

- digital distribution up 18% over last quarter, to a total of about 10% market share

- Blu-Ray up 66.3% over last quarter, to a total of about 4% market share

Want to make a bet on which market share is going to grow faster over the holidays period and in the following months? With the Blu-Ray players being as cheap as they are now and surely replacing DVD players in the mass market at a growing rate, do you really think that BD won't cannibalize the DVD market quick enough to be the relevant alternative to DD in a few years?

Um I read the article again. There is nowhere that says BluRay went from 3-4% marketshare ( thats about 66.3% increase you claim for software sales. )

But yes I made a mistake. DD has 10% marketshare. Considering DD really only took off properly on Live 2 years ago extensively, and now this christmas we have 1080p just introduced.

I am willing to take your bet. Because the figures I have seen for Bluray software sales have declined for 18 months. With a few spikes.

Just search for the number. From the article:

"In its news release with the data, DEG attempted to highlight sales of Blu-ray disc sales, which rose an impressive 66.3% in the quarter."

Ah yes. Thanks. And sorry if I doubted you. :)

The thing though is with Bluray marketshare so low, 4% 60% increase isn't that much marketshare. The more marketshare you have the harder it is to hit higher numbers of % increase. I predicted ages ago that BluRay would reach about 28-30% marketshare at the most and die off. I still hold by that.

DVD after 3 years had 22% marketshare against VHS sales.(2001) However in 2002 DVD had 59% marketshare. This is all based on actual disc sales. Not sales of PS3's where noone buys a BluRay movie. So with this in mind for BluRay to be even clode to the adoption of DVD it should be around 20% marketshare as of March 2009. March 2010 which will be BluRay's 4th year it should be leading in software sales. DVD had 59% marketshare even though households on average had 70% VHS's and 30% DVD players. Trouble is BluRay is sharing its space with DD. And DD will never ever fade but only get stronger. Wheras physical media will always die. But noone predicted Movie downloads to move quicker than BluRay, effectively it's been the 360 and Live pioneering the push to.

66.3% of 4% = 2.65% increase
18% of 10% = 1.8% increase

Which means Blu-ray increased in total marketshare by more than digital distribution last quarter.  Which one is more impressive now?

What about eco-system cost associated with the comparable formats...I boost my income by 50% that's great, but a NFL player boost his by 5%, and he's MUCH happier!



"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

- From By Schism Rent Asunder