The reality of DVD vs Blu Ray vs Digital Distibution. As of October 20 2009

[heruamon]

makingmusic476 said:

selnor said:

WereKitten said:

selnor said:

WereKitten said:

selnor said:
^
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@ PullusPardus.

18% marketshare for DD, only 4% for BluRay. It has happened faster than anyone would have predicted.

Wrong, read the article:

- digital distribution up 18% over last quarter, to a total of about 10% market share

- Blu-Ray up 66.3% over last quarter, to a total of about 4% market share

Want to make a bet on which market share is going to grow faster over the holidays period and in the following months? With the Blu-Ray players being as cheap as they are now and surely replacing DVD players in the mass market at a growing rate, do you really think that BD won't cannibalize the DVD market quick enough to be the relevant alternative to DD in a few years?

Um I read the article again. There is nowhere that says BluRay went from 3-4% marketshare ( thats about 66.3% increase you claim for software sales. )

But yes I made a mistake. DD has 10% marketshare. Considering DD really only took off properly on Live 2 years ago extensively, and now this christmas we have 1080p just introduced.

I am willing to take your bet. Because the figures I have seen for Bluray software sales have declined for 18 months. With a few spikes.

Just search for the number. From the article:

"In its news release with the data, DEG attempted to highlight sales of Blu-ray disc sales, which rose an impressive 66.3% in the quarter."

Ah yes. Thanks. And sorry if I doubted you. :)

The thing though is with Bluray marketshare so low, 4% 60% increase isn't that much marketshare. The more marketshare you have the harder it is to hit higher numbers of % increase. I predicted ages ago that BluRay would reach about 28-30% marketshare at the most and die off. I still hold by that.

DVD after 3 years had 22% marketshare against VHS sales.(2001) However in 2002 DVD had 59% marketshare. This is all based on actual disc sales. Not sales of PS3's where noone buys a BluRay movie. So with this in mind for BluRay to be even clode to the adoption of DVD it should be around 20% marketshare as of March 2009. March 2010 which will be BluRay's 4th year it should be leading in software sales. DVD had 59% marketshare even though households on average had 70% VHS's and 30% DVD players. Trouble is BluRay is sharing its space with DD. And DD will never ever fade but only get stronger. Wheras physical media will always die. But noone predicted Movie downloads to move quicker than BluRay, effectively it's been the 360 and Live pioneering the push to.

66.3% of 4% = 2.65% increase
18% of 10% = 1.8% increase

Which means Blu-ray increased in total marketshare by more than digital distribution last quarter.  Which one is more impressive now?

What about eco-system cost associated with the comparable formats...I boost my income by 50% that's great, but a NFL player boost his by 5%, and he's MUCH happier!