I think this is probably the most important game for the Wii. Im talking about Zack and Wiki.

Yes its a given that SMG and SSBB are gonna sell and sell in hugh numbers but this game is a first. A GOOD 3rd party game (excluding RE4 and launch games), so this really has to sell as im betting that a lot of 3rd party companies are going to keep a close eye on how this sells.

What game?

I dunno, Zack and wiki is a good 3rd party game but it's also very distant from the so called hardcore tastes, and also not exactly casual either. As awesome as this game is, it's might end up fitting into a small niche rather than carving it's own groove.

no, just because you release a good game on a system does not mean it will sell even if it targets the right audience.  Marketing, and timing are more important factors.  Zack and Wiki is a pretty low budget game, if they sold a million copies they would have hit the jackpot.  Seriously I think Capcom would be really happy with 200-300k WW.  The general public is not aware of this game, and I don't expect much of anything in terms of marketing.  Personally i expect it to sell 500-700k WW, but it could be one of those games that has really good legs, who knows.

i think 500k worldwide would be enough to make capcom happy

I don't think there is any single most important 3rd party title for wii this holiday season, rather I think the "hardcore" 3rd party games as a whole are important. If Zack and wiki, RE:UC, NiGHTS, Soul Calibur Legends, Trama Center New Blood, Guitar Hero 3, Winning Eleven and others all do poorly to moderately as a whole then Nintendo is in trouble. If a few of them can reach 500K (give or take 100K) before the end of this fiscal year then I think it will attract more third party support. If a couple of them do fantastically (650-1 mil by end of fiscal year) then wii will get alot of attention from third parties.

as I said in a previous post I think the attach rate for the wii will go up by end of year as imo the type of people that will buy a console on the strength of one new game release (SMG) are the type of people who'll spend a lot on games.

New IP + no marketing = no sales, sadly. The slightly cheaper $40 price point should help it a bit though.

Yes that game will prove whether or not there is a possiblity for third parties. However other top third parties gmaes will measure too for this week.

 Word of mouth is the only thing that saves that situation, and there is reason to suspect Z&W could have a decent word of mouth campaign.