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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ten Week Countdown 2009!

non-gravity on 18 December 2009

@koffieboon let's have someone Dutch win :p



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koffieboon on 18 December 2009

I get the following overall ranking so far:

non-gravity 367
09tarheel 375
koffieboon 379
darkjonnyx 419
BHR-3 429
TWRoO 437
Darthdevidem 458
Veggie 467
NinjaBlade360 480
Skeezer 495
Zucas 518
ph4nt 542
Pineapple 543
zexen_lowe 556
haxxiy 627
postofficebuddy 660
theprof00 664
Noobie 666
MANUELF 669
Carl2291 684
Blacksaber 718
DMeisterJ 860
dexorosourus 929

I couldn't find any changes in first places for any of the rankings.



koffieboon on 18 December 2009
non-gravity said:
@koffieboon let's have someone Dutch win :p

You're Dutch too? I wasn't even aware of that...



darkjonnyx on 18 December 2009

Yeahh I`m proud of my 4th place, seems I can get it until the end of the league.

I think non-gravity will win the ten weeks, there are great numbers, Congratz



zexen_lowe on 18 December 2009

Agh, how come I have amazing PS3 and 360 predictions and completely suck everywhere else. Who told the Wii it could do well, it's supposed to be a fad! -_-




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TWRoO on 19 December 2009

I have updated the front page now.



TWRoO on 19 December 2009

Here are the full stats for Mr.Average.

Mr.Average Wii PS3 X360 DS PSP total
week 1 3 0 1 32 4 40
week 2 5 1 18 36 17 77
week 3 9 5 21 23 15 73
week 4 9 1 2 3 20 35
week 5 1 20 9 26 21 77
week 6 21 6 3 11 8 49
week 7 46 6 2 14 9 77
week 8





week 9





week 10












totals 94 39 56 145 94 428

Easy to see how quickly we all failed with the Wii the past couple of weeks.



Khuutra on 19 December 2009

You guys seem to be doing pretty good, bt the DS was destroying you for a while there and now the Wii is massacring you!



koffieboon on 19 December 2009
TWRoO said:

Here are the full stats for Mr.Average.

Mr.Average Wii PS3 X360 DS PSP total
week 1 3 0 1 32 4 40
week 2 5 1 18 36 17 77
week 3 9 5 21 23 15 73
week 4 9 1 2 3 20 35
week 5 1 20 9 26 21 77
week 6 21 6 3 11 8 49
week 7 46 6 2 14 9 77
week 8





week 9





week 10












totals 94 39 56 145 94 428

Easy to see how quickly we all failed with the Wii the past couple of weeks.

So currently only 4 people have outperformed the average at the moment? Btw, is this just a normal average or did you also take out a few outliers?



TWRoO on 19 December 2009
koffieboon said:
TWRoO said:

Here are the full stats for Mr.Average.

Mr.Average Wii PS3 X360 DS PSP total
week 1 3 0 1 32 4 40
week 2 5 1 18 36 17 77
week 3 9 5 21 23 15 73
week 4 9 1 2 3 20 35
week 5 1 20 9 26 21 77
week 6 21 6 3 11 8 49
week 7 46 6 2 14 9 77
week 8





week 9





week 10












totals 94 39 56 145 94 428

Easy to see how quickly we all failed with the Wii the past couple of weeks.

So currently only 4 people have outperformed the average at the moment? Btw, is this just a normal average or did you also take out a few outliers?

It is the (mean) average of everyone's predictions, then added in as a new contestant.... so for example half of us could be over predicting, while the other half could be underpredicting by the same amount, this would produce a "Mr.Average" score of 0... so in that case nobody would beat him.

For comparison, here are the averages of peoples scores (let's call them Mrs. Average )

Mrs.Average Wii PS3 X360 DS PSP total
week 1 8.5 6.6 7.5 31.0 14.2 67.8
week 2 8.7 6.7 19.4 34.6 17.0 86.4
week 3 11.6 7.6 22.1 22.7 16.0 79.9
week 4 14.7 8.1 9.3 11.7 20.1 63.9
week 5 9.2 24.0 13.8 27.6 21.0 95.5
week 6 21.8 11.2 8.9 13.4 16.8 72.1
week 7 47.1 9.2 8.5 16.3 16.0 97.1


Errm little note though, this was done quickly so I didn't include Jadakiss (would have needed to make extra space in the spreadsheet and do different calculations for consoles and handhelds) wheras Mr.Average does include Jadakiss for each console (but obviously not for the handhelds)

Something that it is pretty obvious now that I noticed it, but not something I thought about before:
Mr.Average will be close to Mrs.Average whenever the majority (or all) of us are either aboveor below the reality. So for instance the first 3 weeks of the DS, or the last two weeks for Wii, most or all of us were on one side of what the VGC numbers turned out to be, and thus Mr and Mrs Average both show roughly the same figure.