This holiday is the biggest proving ground to date for Sony against Microsoft.  Look at this chart:

Wii vs. PS3 vs. 360

 So far, though 360 shoot double total sales of the PS3, 360 apparently rose drastically during the last holiday season (the second holiday on the shelves).  Now PS3 is approaching that curve.  Do you think that PS3 will have enough momentum with the new SKUs and holiday lineup and features to surpass, if not duplicate, the same curve set by 360 during this stage of its life?  

I think Sony sees this as the next stage of staying in the game and that is why they are breaking out the new SKUs across the board.  Not doing at least what 360 has done is going to be a strong nail in the coffin after the holiday season.  They are scared that there isn't enough momentum.  Maybe there isn't?  Holiday sales are the times when these manufacturers can jump start their progress, and with only about 6 holidays generally per console cycle, we are already nearing 30% completion for these consoles to prove themselves.  Can Sony afford to be behind 30% into this generation's proving ground?

Oh look, the Wii seems to be dipping just a little there.  Look really hard.  "Squint a little" and you can see it. 

I think PS3 will end the year slightly ahead of what 360 ended last year (7.8 million). So roughly 8 million.... Whether they can force a stupid amount into retail channels like MS did (10.4 million) i don't know, not sure if the retailers would accept it a second year in a row.

looking at the end of the chart, seems MS has a bit of momentum already going into this season. I definitely expect that to continue, a result spurred from Halo 3 I'm sure. So I don't know if Sony can "gain too much" ground, but at least they can hang in there. Next year should be their big year if Konami, Capcom, and SE keep their commitments and especially IF Blu-ray can rebound HD DVDs comback. They just need to hold out another holiday to stay in developers minds.  HD DVD is going to keep the Blu-ray demand at bay with the $179 player this holiday.

TWRoO, you have a good point about retailer support. Retailers, especially those like Gamestop seem to be strong against the PS3 so far, they could have a pretty strong impact this holiday as well. I'm interested to see how they will react to another round of SKUs from Sony, and if their concentration will be for or against Sony with consumers.

You have some right ideas there. It will be very interesting to see how sales go during the holidays for sure.

The slight dipping of Wii sales is due to what's likely to be a seasonal drop in Japan. It will change soon with SMG and Wii Fit.

It's also possible that Nintendo could be saving some stock. With all the doubts surrounding Wii's continued success, there is a lot riding on Nintendo coming in strong this holiday to wash those doubts away. Not many can deny 2 extremely successful holidays. I would say that Mario Galaxy will unleash the flood if there is one.

I wonder how they are going to play Wii Fit. Will they reserve some stock for its release? It seems that a game like Wii Fit would have more prolonged appeal like Wii Sports has had.

I also wonder if Nintendo has any more "surprises" up their sleeves to rock the blue ocean again and when they might surface, they haven't done that since E3 with Wii Fit. Last year was full of those tradition-testing antics. Again, I hope they don't go back to stale. I think, though, that they are now concentrating on Gamer concerns before attacking the Blue Ocean again. They have brought over Japanese games to VC, brought in Neo Geo, put Sonic in Brawl, are releasing heavier hitters like SMG and MP3, added keyboard support, game rating channels, DS demos, etc. I would expect to see a wireless Wii keyboard soon. Before the holidays?

You bet your ass Nintendo is stockpiling Wiis for the holiday period. They have said so at least twice, the last time being when the delay for SSBB was announced. They specifically said that supply during the holidays would be twice as big as last holidays'.

As if that wasn't enough, the forecasts in their financial reports also leave zero doubt that there's a pool of Wiis locked up somewhere in this planet.

which puts it around ....8 mil I think a post said a while back? In Nintendo's camp, the first week of November and especially Thanksgiving weekend should be pretty intense. I wonder if it will be enough to spur reevaluations from the remaining industry vets. It'll be telling regardless.

I personally think that Sony is on a sinking ship that is at least another 2 yrs in repair. First they have to dig themselves out, then they can finally try to compete. VGChartz releasing a press release about Sony passing 5 million isn't even laughable anymore. I just put my head down in disappointment and worry for what Sony is going to do. For those who don't like Sony, they still must admit that they did a lot for the growth of the industry with PS and PS2. And if Sony were ever completely defeated, then that will be another big lose for the industry, despite their arrogant show leading up to the PS3 release.

That rumor of Microsoft giving 360 up to EA also has some pretty big weight with all the movement. MS hasn't achieved their goal of using 360 to extend the media experience and capture the living room as quickly as they had hoped, but they still have succeeded thus far against Sony with a chance to finish the fight over the next year. I would be surprised to see Microsoft let that go after all the agonizing effort. If this were to happen though, I don't see it till after the holiday as EA would need a period to shift gears and rebuild consumer confidence with some big guns tailing for the holidays. Plus you don't want to confuse Consumers just before a holiday, which makes you wonder if Sony's many SKUs will help or if they could also hurt.

I've always supported Sony but I don't see how they could possibly catch up to Microsoft and the 360. They are to far behind, but if the PS3 has huge Christmas sales and another price drop then maybe things will change for the better.

@ clandecyon

"That rumor of Microsoft giving 360 up to EA also has some pretty big weight with all the movement."

Thats the honestly most unfeasible rumor I've read on here in months. The 360 is set to start making a profit and now after billions spent they are just going to give up? No way No how. In addition aligning launches is more for conversation than the reality of sales. http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weekly=1 I think is a better representation of sales.