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Forums - Nintendo - What if Nintendo never launched the Wii?...(article).

Smashchu2 on 09 October 2009
famousringo said:
Smashchu2 said:
theprof00 said:
@griffin
because if there are 10 people buying a 600$ product vs 60 people buying a 100$ product, the market is the same. That market with the higher number of people has expanded the demographic, but not the revenue.

The problem with the argument that everyone is bringing up with me is that while all of these things are very closely related, they are not all the same thing. They are slightly different interpretations. Mine is not wrong simply because your interpretation is different, you just have a slightly different viewpoint.

Like looking at a ball with a color gradient on it, where I stand, the ball looks blue-green, wheras where you are standing, the ball look green-blue. Niether of us are wrong, but it's folly to start saying that only one view can be right.

No, the revenue is the same, not the profits. The system selling for $600 might have a higher variable cost. Cost of Good Sold could be higher. The $600 system may have higher fixed cost. The question may be why the system is $600.

The problem prof is your claim is still wrong. Your claim is "The market would be growing of the Wii was not there." The revenue has been going up. The profit has not. The number of consumers going in are not going up. Since the market declined in 2009 along with the Wii, it means the market is tied with the Wii, meaning any growth is also tied to the Wii's growth. If the Wii grows in 2010, expect the market to get better.

I think you have your causality backwards. The games market hasn't shrunk because the Wii is in decline. The market has shrunk because we're in a recession. The HD systems and handhelds have felt it less than the Wii (in terms of unit sales) because in the past year they've recieved all kinds of hardware redesigns and price cuts and more big software releases than the Wii has seen, not because the game market is somehow completely defined by the Wii.

 

Two things

Gaming has done well in recessions. The NES came out of a recession (or was it the Atari 2600?)

Second, the recession could be traced back to 2007. It started in 2008, but the holiday season was huge. It has only been in mid 2009 that we see the market slump.



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theprof00 on 09 October 2009
Smashchu2 said:
theprof00 said:
it's been shown before that the market would grow by at least 1$ YoY.
I would go and show you te work myself but there's no real point.

Substitute the wii with another gamecube, and revenue would still be up YOY.

Shown=/=What is.

The truth is theprof, your wrong. The market was expanding becuase of Nintendo. Like you mentioned, sales were up in 2007 over 2006, because the Wii was out in 2007 and sales were great. In fact, the decline in 2009 is due to the Wii falling over all else. You can see how importaint the Wii was to the market's overall health.

And once again, I'm posting this.

 

Again someone tries to bring up Nintendo as an inseperable entity. We are simply talking about the Wii. Secondly I have personally not seen any such decline in 2009. Remember that we have several of the biggest games coming out before the year is over. We have seen price cuts across the board as well. In addition, if wii never existed, the 2009 "drop" would never have happened because the wii wouldn't have caused 2008 to be so high.

I am interested in seeing proof of a decline by the end of this year.

 



dtewi on 09 October 2009

I wasn't aware the Wii didn't exist anymore.



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

Smashchu2 on 10 October 2009
theprof00 said:
Smashchu2 said:
theprof00 said:
it's been shown before that the market would grow by at least 1$ YoY.
I would go and show you te work myself but there's no real point.

Substitute the wii with another gamecube, and revenue would still be up YOY.

Shown=/=What is.

The truth is theprof, your wrong. The market was expanding becuase of Nintendo. Like you mentioned, sales were up in 2007 over 2006, because the Wii was out in 2007 and sales were great. In fact, the decline in 2009 is due to the Wii falling over all else. You can see how importaint the Wii was to the market's overall health.

And once again, I'm posting this.

 

Again someone tries to bring up Nintendo as an inseperable entity. We are simply talking about the Wii. Secondly I have personally not seen any such decline in 2009. Remember that we have several of the biggest games coming out before the year is over. We have seen price cuts across the board as well. In addition, if wii never existed, the 2009 "drop" would never have happened because the wii wouldn't have caused 2008 to be so high.

I am interested in seeing proof of a decline by the end of this year.

 

Have you not seen the reports. The entire month was down YoY. That means the market is doing worse at the same time as last year, and guess what, so was the Wii. The Wii has more influence on the market then any other system (save maybe the DS). When PS3 or 360 are up or down, it doesn't make a big difference.



Dinomax on 10 October 2009

*closes eyes*

GUYS! I can see it! Oh man, when you buy a Wii, its in HD, it gives you footrubs, it also does your taxes and cleans your house! THIS IS THE SYSTEM NINTENDO SHOULD RELEASE!

*opens eyes*

Awww I just got a system that play videogames and Nintendo made a ton of money doing so. If only they ever release...that system.



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Voltaire on 10 October 2009

When something has control of 50% of the market, you cant discount it. I think i have to agree with Smashchu2, the gaming market is very much tied with the Wii.

I also dont think gaming in general would have expanded without the Wii. The way thinks were going, gaming was becoming more and more specialized. It was limiting the buying audience. Sony, fresh off of the most successful console of all time, released the PS3 for $600. Without the Wii, pricing wouldn't have been so competitive, i honestly believe that both the PS3 and 360 would be selling for over $400. Higher prices again limit consumers, and make the available market more niche. Someone brought up the comic book crash of the 50-60s, i think thats an excellent example.




Avinash_Tyagi on 10 October 2009

The price of the PS3 and 360 wouldn't have dropped so fast, and the market would be a lot smaller, and they'd still be losing money

 

basically the market would be heading for another crash



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Hephaestos on 10 October 2009

the GC was profiatable as a 3rd place console, so why would the GC2 have had a different fate? There is always about 5-6 games that people who like Nintendo games will buy for their console (Mario - Zelda - Metroid - SSMB - Starfox - Mariokart - F-Zero - Punch-out - Pokemon to name the comon franchises)

the console could not have done worse.



OoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoO

theprof00 on 10 October 2009
Smashchu2 said:
theprof00 said:
Smashchu2 said:
theprof00 said:
it's been shown before that the market would grow by at least 1$ YoY.
I would go and show you te work myself but there's no real point.

Substitute the wii with another gamecube, and revenue would still be up YOY.

Shown=/=What is.

The truth is theprof, your wrong. The market was expanding becuase of Nintendo. Like you mentioned, sales were up in 2007 over 2006, because the Wii was out in 2007 and sales were great. In fact, the decline in 2009 is due to the Wii falling over all else. You can see how importaint the Wii was to the market's overall health.

And once again, I'm posting this.

 

Again someone tries to bring up Nintendo as an inseperable entity. We are simply talking about the Wii. Secondly I have personally not seen any such decline in 2009. Remember that we have several of the biggest games coming out before the year is over. We have seen price cuts across the board as well. In addition, if wii never existed, the 2009 "drop" would never have happened because the wii wouldn't have caused 2008 to be so high.

I am interested in seeing proof of a decline by the end of this year.

 

Have you not seen the reports. The entire month was down YoY. That means the market is doing worse at the same time as last year, and guess what, so was the Wii. The Wii has more influence on the market then any other system (save maybe the DS). When PS3 or 360 are up or down, it doesn't make a big difference.

actually september is up

and like i said, the wii is the reason why it was up so high last year, and why it is down so far this year.



JUG on 11 October 2009

I think he makes some good points, I don't know what would have happened, but I'm sure Nintendo wouldn't be doing as well as it is now for certain.



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