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Forums - Sales - Scenarios for the Battle for 2nd Place

        As to piggyback to previous "PS3 will beat 360" post and create a more consise projection or to present alternate scenario, I have decided to create this thread. If you are not comfortable with the style or some of the actions I have done, please do not flame or spam but simply hint as I hope to make this into a editable reference thread. Thank you.

We may have noticed that in most places of the world the cold air is approaching and people are writting there lists months ahead of times anctiously waiting for old St.Nick to come by. In other places of the world the weather is turning warmer but that doesn't change people's letter format. If you're a "fanboy" like me you're writting to Santa asking for... the PS3 to outsell the 360. But what are the odds of this happening, how can it happen, and if it will happen how soon.

 

The Quarter Is important in general but September, October November have nothing on Holiday Month. As those three months tend to nearly parrallel the one month [December] alone. As shown in the figures below: (referece vgchartz)

Console Sept-Nov/06
PS3 X360
Total
516,376
1,860,030
Console-Dec/06 PS3 X360
Total
850,903
1,842,180

 

Console Sept-Nov/07
PS3 X360
Total
2,235,303
2,792,667
Console-Dec/06 PS3 X360
Total
2,269,310
2,051,821

(I have no reason why xbox360 sales were so low for 07'.If anyone does feel free to post)

Console Sept-Nov/08
PS3 X360
Total
2,375,386
3,374,791
Console Dec/08
PS3 X360
Total
2,140,572
3,186,854

Since we assume this new battle for dominance comes from the slim revolution, in the first month since the Slim's release the PS3 has outsold 360 by 772k.

Console-Total PS3 X360 Difference
Total
24,792,654
32,262,881
7,470,227
Console- Slim Sales
PS3 X360 Difference
Total
1,348,166
611,248
772,902

This last week has seen PS3 at 234k and 360 at 161k. In my perspective 360 got a slight boost due to ODST and PS3 is at it's number because it is still cooling down from price cut and ToV sales. If we assume that next week (I'm not fortune teller not including U2 in this topic for now) will see both systems coolng there sales to about 210k/140k respectively, at a constant rate until December, that would mean that in the 10 weeks till December the PS3 would theoretically sell 2.1-3 million and 360 1.4-6 million.

 

That would mean that total September to November sale would be 3.5/ 2.1 million. As we'eve noticed the Decembet sale practically parrallel that of the 3 months before it  -/+ 200k. Of course we must include games like Uncharted 2 and Forza 3 which I guess would tip the scale at max of +500k.

Console PS3 X360 Difference
Pre-December 3.3-3.8M 2-2.5m .74m
Sept-December 6.5-7.5m 3.5-4.5m ~3m

Believeing these results being pretty plausauble, that would put PS3:X360 at ~ 31m: 35m or X350 ahead by 4 million. (3-4million)


Now For 2010

There are clearly some IP's for both categories going into march/April that will push sales along with innovations like Natal/Sony Motion Controls. Sony hopes to reach 5 million with it's "add-on". Natal is unknown but is creative for it's hands free service. I'll try and touch in on that later.

 

Possible Hardware Pushing technology doesn't nesscasarly have to be a new IP just something that has the ability to bring newcomers in. An example being Forza which is racing game of AAA standards. Racing games being pick-up and go will attract many fans, especially in Europe where it seems most popular. I'll try to stack up rivals against each other:

 

PS3 Possibe IP HW Pushers:           XB360 Possible IP HW Pushers:

 

     - Gran Turismo 5                                      - Forza Motorsport 3

    - Killzone 2 (selling 40k/w)                       - Crackdown 2

   - LBP GOTY                                               - L4D 2

   - God of War 3                                          - Splinter Cell: Conviction

   - Heavy Rain                                             - Alan Wake

   - Tekken 6                                                -Mass Effect 2

                                                                                 - Halo: Reach

   - MAG                                                       - Secret World

    -  FFXIII  (Japan                                    

 

   -  Demon Souls                                        

  - White Knight Chronicles                          

   - Tales of Vesparia                                 

 

 

 

Come Xmas time and up until March a lot of these will be the things that switch people over from PS2 or nothing to one of these two next gen consoles. The most obvious ones which could have potentional to do a lot of damage on the scoreboard or just equal each other out. Each sells signifacntly similair amount of consoles because of it's populairity but they both equal up. God oof War and Splinter cell are another such Games. Though in different generes each have exclusive cult followings that have not seen a sequel on this Gen.

For now I will leave Game HW selling section with no scenario's as I am blank as what to use to suggest some results...

 

Finally for today I leave you with some charts showing if PS3 is behind by only 4 million in January. This is what it will need to sell

Why december would have 3 times as much as normal weeks would be that it usually sells September, October, and November average week sales altogether or x3

At 100k a week more plus december 300k a week more: 1 year surplus : Oversell by 6million(- 4million)= 2 million

At 50k a week more plus december 200k a week more: 1.5 years 3 million in 2010 (outsell) but ~1.5million behind

At 25k a week more December 75k a week more: 3 years 2010 (outsell) ~1.5

At 10k a week more plus 30k a week more in December: 470k+ 120k= ~600k = Almost 7 years.

 

Authors Note: I understand this thread is only like 2/3 done, but it's 3am for me and I'm unure what to add for 360 and In general.

So Please, Contribute, Comment, Cooperate. Thank You.



"Rainbird: Why don't Nintendo and Microsoft Copy the Sony Blog?

Bagenome:You can't shoot things on a blog, and babies can't read, so I don't think it would suit either one's target audience."

 

d21lewis said:
Honestly, do JRPG makers even realize how hard it is to save the world? That shit is impossible!

 

 

 

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Nice thread.  Battle for second place is sure gonna be a close one imo.



the only thing that stands out is ur HW pusher games...lots are no way...and wats with the "STAR OCEAN games" as a 360 pusher???



Well put together thread.



Xain care to elaborate on stands out (hint), that's what the author's not is for.

And in regards to Star Ocean they are supposed to release a new one.



"Rainbird: Why don't Nintendo and Microsoft Copy the Sony Blog?

Bagenome:You can't shoot things on a blog, and babies can't read, so I don't think it would suit either one's target audience."

 

d21lewis said:
Honestly, do JRPG makers even realize how hard it is to save the world? That shit is impossible!

 

 

 

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dude if your takin about STAR OCEAN INTERNATIONAL...thats on PS3 the 360 version released earlier this year...2nd STAR OCEAN is not a 360 franchise..its owned by tri-Ace a independent developer



so are you gonna fix it????



Fixed it, but can we point out more revelant missing info than this.
Sorry about the mistake though



"Rainbird: Why don't Nintendo and Microsoft Copy the Sony Blog?

Bagenome:You can't shoot things on a blog, and babies can't read, so I don't think it would suit either one's target audience."

 

d21lewis said:
Honestly, do JRPG makers even realize how hard it is to save the world? That shit is impossible!

 

 

 

its not that its bad, its just that everything minus GT5, FF13, and HALO ( maybe forza and GoW) Will not be HW pushers...they'll all do great SW numbers though



No I believe other as I explained in an earlier thread Gow 1/2 were major games on ps2 but continuosly burnt as Now PS3 can't be modded a lot of those fans will decide to switch over as it was an iconic game.

Instead of saying JRPG games I could have just stated JRPG in general as each one tends to push maybe 150k units in Japan over time. 5*150=750k

Then there's three who knows games, being MAG, Tekken, Heavy Rain, and Splinter Cell, Alan Wake and Mass Effect 2 for 360

 

Well It's 3:30an for me so it's time to take a nap. I will respond to you comment come morning



"Rainbird: Why don't Nintendo and Microsoft Copy the Sony Blog?

Bagenome:You can't shoot things on a blog, and babies can't read, so I don't think it would suit either one's target audience."

 

d21lewis said:
Honestly, do JRPG makers even realize how hard it is to save the world? That shit is impossible!