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Forums - Sales - Why I predict First Week JPN FF13 sales to be 1.6 million

Gnizmo on 27 September 2009

The OP ignores the decline in opening week FF games however. In terms of first week it goes 8 > IX > X > XII. This is true despite growing install base, and the "first on a system" effect. Averaging two game releases together but ignoring the obvious trend make the analysis flawed at its very core.



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Gnizmo on 27 September 2009
ZorroX said:

More people? Yes.
More gamers? It`s hard to say.

Anyway, the history is repeating again,
people underestimated MGS4 launch, underestimated PS3 Slim launch, underestimated Tales of Vesperia sales, now they are trying to underestimate FFXIII launch.
Good luck with that.

About Wii and PS3, you do understand people, that difference between HD gaming and motion control gaming, is more, than just between DVD and other media? It is different experience.


They are people that are playing games. By definition they are gamers. Playing games you do not like still makes someone a gamer. Wii inarguably has the most gamers.



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sc94597 on 27 September 2009
ZorroX said:

More people? Yes.
More gamers? It`s hard to say.

Anyway, the history is repeating again,
people underestimated MGS4 launch, underestimated PS3 Slim launch, underestimated Tales of Vesperia sales, now they are trying to underestimate FFXIII launch.
Good luck with that.

About Wii and PS3, you do understand people, that difference between HD gaming and motion control gaming, is more, than just between DVD and other media? It is different experience.

How so? The only difference really is graphics, non that add to the gameplay as of yet may I note.



dolemit3 on 27 September 2009

1/3 of the total install base or so is totally reasonable, although Famitsu is expecting the first shipment to be under 1 million and if true would place a limit to the first week number at 1 million.



Currently playing on PS3: God of War III

Currently playing on Xbox360: Final Fantasy XIII

Currently playing on NDS: Chrono Trigger

Alby_da_Wolf on 27 September 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

Thing is, is FF as popular now as it was back then? FFX-2 sold only 2.41 million in Japan, and FF12 only 2.42 million lifetime, on a much larger base.

In addition Famitsu is predicting a less than 1 million first shipment, so even getting enough software out to do 1.6 million first week is unlikely

FFVII and FFX where the first of the series, IIRC, on the respective current gen Playstations of their times, just like FFXIII will be on PS3. FFX-2 and FFXII weren't.

So maybe FinalEvangelion's arguments aren't definitive, but they are quite fitting. If he's right about potential and Famitsu's right about actual shipments, FFXII could be slowed by shortages, though.

Yes, but those were market leaders, not third place consoles

Evangelion used units sold in his calculations, cold numbers and records, more than personal opinions. And besides PS3 being 2nd in Japan, should this stop its users from buying FFXIII? Didn't Halo sell very well on XB1 too? How FFXIII will affect sales is a different issue, and I won't even try to predict it. Anyway, even excellent PS3 and FFXIII sales shouldn't affect Wii sales, if this is what you fear and try to exorcise with bizarre predictions, almost everybody thinks that price cut and new Mario release will boost its sales to good or very good levels.

 

 

Its not my prediction, its famitsu's predictions, so I don't know why you're calling them bizarre as they have an excellent track record, and they've probably taken into account past sales of Final Fantasy, and it wont stop people who own a PS3 from buying FF13, but it may stop those who don't own a PS3 from buying a PS3.

The Famitsu prediction you cite is about first shipment, neither first week sales nor lifetime sales. Anyhow, we'll see, I'm quite curious and no console or game seems willing to fit easily within predictions in this period...



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FinalEvangelion on 27 September 2009
Gnizmo said:
The OP ignores the decline in opening week FF games however. In terms of first week it goes 8 > IX > X > XII. This is true despite growing install base, and the "first on a system" effect. Averaging two game releases together but ignoring the obvious trend make the analysis flawed at its very core.

 

First Week Sales Japan

 

FF7 - 2.03 Million

FF8 - 2.59 million

FF9 - 2.03 million

FF10 - 1.91 million

FF10-2 - 1.56 million

FF12 - 1.82 million

 

1.6 million would put it slightly above FF10-2.  So I don't see where my prediction is too out of line...

 

Yes, this is only about Japan not Worldwide.  WW is a whole different matter altogether.



"Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is TELL THEM THEY ARE BEING ATTACKED, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. IT WORKS THE SAME IN ANY COUNTRY."  --Hermann Goering, leading Nazi party member, at the Nuremberg War Crime Trials 

 

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Avinash_Tyagi on 27 September 2009
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

Thing is, is FF as popular now as it was back then? FFX-2 sold only 2.41 million in Japan, and FF12 only 2.42 million lifetime, on a much larger base.

In addition Famitsu is predicting a less than 1 million first shipment, so even getting enough software out to do 1.6 million first week is unlikely

FFVII and FFX where the first of the series, IIRC, on the respective current gen Playstations of their times, just like FFXIII will be on PS3. FFX-2 and FFXII weren't.

So maybe FinalEvangelion's arguments aren't definitive, but they are quite fitting. If he's right about potential and Famitsu's right about actual shipments, FFXII could be slowed by shortages, though.

Yes, but those were market leaders, not third place consoles

Evangelion used units sold in his calculations, cold numbers and records, more than personal opinions. And besides PS3 being 2nd in Japan, should this stop its users from buying FFXIII? Didn't Halo sell very well on XB1 too? How FFXIII will affect sales is a different issue, and I won't even try to predict it. Anyway, even excellent PS3 and FFXIII sales shouldn't affect Wii sales, if this is what you fear and try to exorcise with bizarre predictions, almost everybody thinks that price cut and new Mario release will boost its sales to good or very good levels.

 

 

Its not my prediction, its famitsu's predictions, so I don't know why you're calling them bizarre as they have an excellent track record, and they've probably taken into account past sales of Final Fantasy, and it wont stop people who own a PS3 from buying FF13, but it may stop those who don't own a PS3 from buying a PS3.

The Famitsu prediction you cite is about first shipment, neither first week sales nor lifetime sales. Anyhow, we'll see, I'm quite curious and no console or game seems willing to fit easily within predictions in this period...


  Actually they also have a column for total sales as well, 1.5 million



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Gnizmo on 27 September 2009
FinalEvangelion said:

 

First Week Sales Japan

 

FF7 - 2.03 Million

FF8 - 2.59 million

FF9 - 2.03 million

FF10 - 1.91 million

FF10-2 - 1.56 million

FF12 - 1.82 million

 

1.6 million would put it slightly above FF10-2.  So I don't see where my prediction is too out of line...

 

Yes, this is only about Japan not Worldwide.  WW is a whole different matter altogether.

Your theory hinges on averaging the two attach rates for the first Final Fantasy to launch on a platform. It ignores the fact that the launch of the series has been in devlince regardless of platform size, or when it was released.



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A Bad Clown on 27 September 2009

1. They're Japan
2. They're Japan
3. IT'S FINAL FANTASY

If Dragon Quest can on the DS why not Final Fantasy on the PS3?



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deathgod33 on 27 September 2009
A Bad Clown said:
1. They're Japan
2. They're Japan
3. IT'S FINAL FANTASY

If Dragon Quest can on the DS why not Final Fantasy on the PS3?

Handhelds have become trillions of times more popular than consoles this gen in Japan.

DS is really really popular in Japan, PS3- not bad, not popular, just average. FF13 and Versus should get it more attractive but nothing can compare to the popularity of the DS.