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Forums - Sony - Give me your thoughts on PS3 console sales over the next 6 months to a year

Munkeh on 18 October 2007
KBG29 said:
Oct 07- Great finish to the month with the price drop in EU and Japan,
Exclusive Games (Folklore, Eye of Judgment, Ratchet) Big Games (Stranglehold, GH3)
Blu-Ray Exclusives (Spiderman 3, Surfs Up, FF:RotSS, Hostel)
Nov 07- Massive sales spike, US price drop, Blu-ray exclusives (Cars, Ratatouille, Die Hard)
Exclusive Games (Haze, Uncharted) Big Games (MoH, Rock Band, NFS:PS, CoD4, SvR2008, AC)
Dec 07- Tipical Holiday sales, Blu-ray Exclusives (Pirates 3, Underdog, The Simpsons Movie, Superbad)
Big Movies (Harry Potter 1-5, Terminator 3, Rush Hour 3) Exclusive Games (GT5P, Rat Race)
Games (Orange Box, MX v ATV)
Jan 08- Holiday after effect, Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive, Universal dual platform, Killzone online Beta,
Big Games (Devil May Cry, Burnout Paradise, Dark Sector)
Feb 08- Little Big Planet Arrives, Final Release date on MGS4
GDC (8 Days next Episodic game, Killzone ready for may, Getaway looking amazing, Resistance 2,
new zipper project shown)
Mar 08- MGS4 arrives, UT3 gets in on the rush, Brothers in arms HH, Singstar, MGO
Playstation Home is delivered
PSN gets Music and Video Downloads
Dual Shock 3 Bundle comes out
Apr 08- GTA4 rolls in, Infamous shows up
40GB PS3 349.99, 80GB Good Bye, 160GB 449.99
X360 Arcade 249.99 (no GTA4), Pro 299.99, Elite 379.99
May 08- Killzone 2 finally becomes a reality
GT5 (car damage shown, real time weather effects, Launch date for Aug.)
Sony Gamers Day (Jak and Daxter: Lost Frontire revieled, Getaway update, Resistance 2 update,
Zippers games shown, Motorstorm 2, new games from Factor 5 and Ninja Theroy)
Jun 08- 8 Days Episodes start
3rd parties come through with some decent games
Summer drought begins
Jul 08- E3 08 Games (Dark Cloud 3 announced, God of War 3 first shown, New David Jaffe game,
More updates on games for winter 08, Madden PS3 best version, Big push for Episodic games,
Rockstar exclusive shown, Gears of War 1 and 2 special addition winter 08)

E3 08 Annoncments(Sony Buys Rockstar, Blizzard Goes to PS3/360, IPTV avilable buy years end,
PSN on Sony Phones, Tvs, and BR players, PS2 B/c through software)

FFXIII(Playable for the first time, First game to use 100GB Blu-Ray,
Looks nearly idintical to advent children, Release date not announced)
Aug 08-GT5 arrives
Madden sells best on PS3
German Games Convention (E3 2 same stuff as at E3 just now its in Germany, minor announcments)
Sept 08-TGS(E3 3 a few new updates on stuff from Liepzeg, minor announcments)
Big games will drop, but it is anyones guess to which ones they will be
Oct 08- Price Drops
PS3 40GB 299.99 160GB 399.99
360 Pro 249.99 Elite 349.99
Wii 199.99
More big games will drop
Sales at this point 1 year from now:
Wii - 28M
PS3- 23M
360 - 18M

Over the next year Sony is going to put even more weight behind the PS3. The first half of next year Sony is going to be the one to beat. Nintendo is already starting to try to offset the PS3 blowout by putting Brawl, and Kart in its path. That should be good for them, plus I expect an announcment of Animal Crossing Wii very early next year. If Sony releases Home and an open platfrom download service as planned early next year the brand name will be healing up nicely. If done right they could start to get their service competing very well with iTunes very quickly. If MGS4, GTA4, and Killzone can stay on target, and Blu-ray can kill off HD-DVD, the game will be in Sony's ballpark. At this point they should be able to power their way back into first and slam the door shut on the compitition, but that is only if all goes to plan. As we have seen lately, Sony has a hard time getting stuff done on time, and when it finaaly comes it is useally not done right.

I so want that to happen, but I'm not sure that it will exactly. (The Rockstar purchase may be a little over the top!)

I think that PS3 sales in Europe, will continue to stay high until January, (pushed on by Pro Evo, then Ratchet, the Haze, the Uncharted mainly) They'll fall in Jan and Feb, but then go to around launch levels in March, when Singstar, Home and Little Big Planet are launched. In April they will stay this high with MGS 4, GT4, Rumble and another price cut.

In the US, sales will rise with the price drop, and with all the games, I would expect them to remain high with all the exclusives (especialy Uncarted and Ratchet) throughout the holiday season

In Japan, they will jump after the price drop, then fall, but jump again when White Knight Story, FF XII, FF Versus XIII and the Last Remnant are all launched. 

 



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krik on 18 October 2007
elendar said:
krik said:
HappySqurriel said:

There really isn't much of a reason to buy a PS3 over an XBox 360 this year (in North America or Europe) being that the XBox 360 has a much larger and better library, and the better exclusive games released within striking distance of the holiday season. At this point, the only reasons some one would choose a PS3 over the XBox 360 is they're a Sony Fanboy, they are really looking for a Blu-Ray player, or they're uninformed. For this reason I expect the PS3 to sell really poorly and only sell 2 to 3 million units worldwide over the holiday season; thus they will be sitting between 7 and 8 Million units sold wordwide as of January 1st 2008.

In 2008 I expect Sony to average 500,000 units per month sold wordwide for the first 6 months and thus to hit 11 Million units sold in May or June 2008.


I'm not uninformed, I'm a pretty techie dude that works as a Senior Lead Developer in a large corporation, read all about consoles and games, have lots of friends working on the game industry and I would pick a PS3 over an 360.

My reasons:

1) Games:

Even if the 360 has more games out right now, most games I want to play are either in both PS3/360 or they are on the 360/PC. Also, lots of great PS3 and more coming within the next 6 months. Since I have a pretty good PC where I can play BioShock and Gears of War (soon) I can't even think of another 360 game I would like to play.

2) Hardware:

I like Nvidia but hate ATI.

 

360 makes noise, PS3 is pretty much silent.

I don't like Sony but I hate Microsoft even more.

I really hate the brick power supply of the 360.

I like PS3's black look better tha's whitish.

I would hate to be playing a system that has a 30% failure rate and go crazy just to think I would have to deal with MS for a replacement/fix.

3) Life time:

PS2 is still a good machine, selling amazingly well with good games coming out. Xbox1 is pretty much dead. It only lasted 4-5 years, not very good when a game takes 2+ years to make.

Likelly PS3 will outlive the 360 by at least 3-4 years so it is a better investement over time.

4) Price:

PS3 is cheaper - considering I get the HD player ($170 for 360) wifi ($100 for 360) included.

360 + HDDVD + Power brick + WiFi = lots of space, clumsy setup

 

Now, what are your reasons to get a 360? What "must have" games am I missing? Why am I misinformed?

PS: I don't like Halo, never did and always preferred Unreal, so don't say Halo3.

PS2: I'm getting Unreal 3 on the PC, not the PS3. My PC is better than my PS3, easy ;)


 

Reason #1 Games - It is completely up to personal choice as to which games you enjoy. However, the edge goes to 360 with more games and more people playing the games. More games sold = More games Made = More games sold .. Not to mention if you have 7 million people playing games with friends vs 2.5 million.. A lot more friends will choose 360. Word of mouth has an effect. Reason #2 Hardware - Some people may hold off due to the rrod but your other reasons are so trivial I would be willing to bet 99% of gamers don't care. Reason #3 Life time - Yeah the ps2 is selling still because of the massive installed base. 360 has the lead and the gap is growing. So there fore its more likely that the 360 will have the larger installed base ensuring more games into the future. Reason #4 Price - 360 wins. You can try to show all the value you want out of the ps3 but the cheaper one will sell more. Well I hoped I helped show why you might be miss informed when it comes to the average gamer. As to you not wanting any 360 games well good luck with your smaller ps3 library.

You reasons are valid but for me they make no sense to me. Do you get my point? The current 360 game library is bigger than PS3 but going forward both consoles will have lots of great games. We both know that. It's all about choice. I respect people that chose and buy the 360. I don't understand their reasons but I respect it.

What I do not accept is the initial comment that drove my reply: "At this point, the only reasons some one would choose a PS3 over the XBox 360 is they're a Sony Fanboy, they are really looking for a Blu-Ray player, or they're uninformed."

Just one question... why do you let Microsoft get away with a 30% failure rate?

Would you buy a car that would have a 30% failure rate? NO.

Would you buy a TV with a 30% failure rate? NO.

Would you buy _ANYTHING_ with a 30% failure rate? Let me guess... yes if it's a Xbox 360. WTF? This makes no sense to me.

 



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

Munkeh on 18 October 2007
krik said:
elendar said:
 

 


You reasons are valid but for me they make no sense to me. Do you get my point? The current 360 game library is bigger than PS3 but going forward both consoles will have lots of great games. We both know that. It's all about choice. I respect people that chose and buy the 360. I don't understand their reasons but I respect it.

What I do not accept is the initial comment that drove my reply: "At this point, the only reasons some one would choose a PS3 over the XBox 360 is they're a Sony Fanboy, they are really looking for a Blu-Ray player, or they're uninformed."

Just one question... why do you let Microsoft get away with a 30% failure rate?

Would you buy a car that would have a 30% failure rate? NO.

Would you buy a TV with a 30% failure rate? NO.

Would you buy _ANYTHING_ with a 30% failure rate? Let me guess... yes if it's a Xbox 360. WTF? This makes no sense to me.

 


 Don't be stupud, it has a 25% failure rate, if it was truly 30%, then everyone will buy it. But having a 3/4 chance that it will work properly just makes it sound so much better than a 7/10 chance



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krik on 18 October 2007

Looks like someone else agrees with me... http://blogs.pcworld.com/gameon/archives/005721.html 

 Also, look at this table:



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

Munkeh on 18 October 2007

@Krik, I saw a really similar chart to that elsewhere, but it had even more mistakes, I wonder why nobody can get the facts right?



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jman8 on 18 October 2007

As long as the PS3 can get and maintain the gap between it and the 360 at ~5 million units, there’s no way third parties are gonna throw their support exclusively at the 360. In this scenario, Sony may lose, but the PS3 consumer still wins



My Top 5:

Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger

My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 and Wii

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.

Words Of Wisdom on 18 October 2007
krik said:

You reasons are valid but for me they make no sense to me. Do you get my point? The current 360 game library is bigger than PS3 but going forward both consoles will have lots of great games. We both know that. It's all about choice. I respect people that chose and buy the 360. I don't understand their reasons but I respect it.

What I do not accept is the initial comment that drove my reply: "At this point, the only reasons some one would choose a PS3 over the XBox 360 is they're a Sony Fanboy, they are really looking for a Blu-Ray player, or they're uninformed."

Just one question... why do you let Microsoft get away with a 30% failure rate?

Would you buy a car that would have a 30% failure rate? NO.

Would you buy a TV with a 30% failure rate? NO.

Would you buy _ANYTHING_ with a 30% failure rate? Let me guess... yes if it's a Xbox 360. WTF? This makes no sense to me.


A console without a top notch library of games has a 100% failure rate.

Though the PS3 is digging itself out of that one... slowly.