That has been asked before, and I just edited the front page, but whenever the next console comes out is what I mean.

That would take some serious ww economy recovery and market expansion is Easter Europe and china.

if it didn't happen yet it won't happen this year but it's gonna go way below 200k next year. That's not being negative, it seems blatantly obvious to me and it can still have extremely good sales while going below 200k many times. It would have to sell wii 2008 levels to not go below 200k. Wii did 149k in 2007 and 159k in 2009.

OK that sounds not to bad, but still a bit far fetched, I would love to see the PS3 sell that well for so long, I hope your right.

Haven't read most of the thread (cept zexen's bet, don't bully him), but here's what the PS2's 4th year looked like, to put it in perspective:

PS2 - 2004

I'd say you have until... January, maybe February.

yea the ps2 couldn't do it.  I haven't looked at every statistic but i'm sure this holds true, only the wii in 2008 has ever sold above 200k every week in a year. 

not by much when it did it was only 2k within 10% error margin and many times when it happen it was later changed.

Yea but at the end of 08 it showed that it had happened 5 times (shows 6 times now), in fact falling below 110k twice.  If you want to find the old thread go ahead.  Yea there was a point earlier in the year it looked like it might happen, but it didn't.  I will say it was way closer than i had expected though.

Historically, it will most likely fall below 200k by mid-January. This prediction does have a number of things going in it's favor though.

1. PS3 sales after the holiday should be higher than past years due to it's new price point.

2. I honestly don't think I can ever remember a non-holiday quarter that is a jammed-packed as Q1 2010. There are a TON of big games coming out early next year including:

-Bayonetta (America) [01/05]
-Bayonetta (Europe) [01/08]
-Army of Two: The 40th Day (Europe) [01/08]
-Army of Two: The 40th Day (America) [01/12]
-Dark Void (America) [01/12]
-Dark Void (Europe) [01/15]
-M.A.G. (America) [01/26]
-Ar Tonelico III (Japan) [01/28]
-Last Rebellion (Japan) [01/28]
-Resonance of Fate (Japan) [01/28]
-Star Ocean: The Last Hope International (America/Japan) [02/04]
-BioShock 2 (America/Europe) [02/09]
-Dante's Inferno (America) [02/09]
-Dante's Inferno (Europe) [02/12]
-Lost Planet 2 (America) [02/23]
-Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (America) [03/02]
-Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (Europe) [03/05]
-Super Street Fighter IV (America/Europe/Japan) [03/23]

-Dead Rising 2
-EyePet (America)
-Final Fantasy XIII (America/Europe)
-God of War III
-Gran Turismo 5
-Heavy Rain
-Lost Planet 2 (Europe/Japan)
-Mafia II
-Max Payne 3
-Quantum Theory
-Resident Evil 5: Alternate Edition
-Resonance of Fate (America/Europe)
-Trinity: Souls of Zill O'll (Japan)
-White Knight Chronicles (America/Europe)
-Yakuza 4 (Japan)

3. Sony has their Motion Controllers releasing in March. If marketed correctly, it could hold PS3 sales above 200k well into June.

So mid-January at the earliest and June at the latest is when this prediction will most likely fail. If I were to wager, I would bet on the week after the release of BioShock 2 in mid-February will be the first week that PS3 falls under 200k.

Nice work. BTW the ps3 got adjusted up, so you should readjust some of the weeks :p