1.NSMB... maybe, I think that most who would've bought a Wii for this game have already bought it for SMG.
2.Wii Fit Plus will sell ton of SW, not HW.
3. Yup
4.Probably, though I think that FFXIII will sell more HW than DQX, simply because there will be less PS3s when XIII releases than Wiis when DQX releases.
5.I don't think that a price cut from 250$ to 200/150 will have that much of an effect on the Japanese market.
Bet with Dr.A.Peter.Nintendo that Super Mario Galaxy 2 won't sell 15 million copies up to six months after it's release, the winner will get Avatar control for a week and signature control for a month.