The signs I think are very promising for the Slim/Price reduction to do everything that Sony need short term, Microsoft do not seem to have done enough to impact its sales and Nintendo are tight lipped.

Sony have been very brave with the price cut and obviously with the investment into the Slim but this got me thinking.

• What point would it be considered not to be working?
• If that point is reached what will that mean for the Playstation brand and Sony?
• Could this apply to Microsoft and Nintendo?

This should not be treated as a flame war I am not suggesting PS3 is doomed, it just seems to me they threw more into this than I expected and if it does not pan out as expected this could be seen as a point in time.

This discussion obviously has the potential to go belly up in which case if that happens please lock the thread.

To answer my own questions:

Sony need to match Microsoft anything less and it would be seen to be failing. Although I do not think that will be enough to finish the Playstation. The Playstation does need to see a marked improvement in its software sales though to compensate for the investment if they cannot achieve this and it does not at least balance the books then the brand assuming market conditions do not radically alter could be at risk.

Microsoft I think are in a similar position, I do not see Microsoft continuing to invest if they start losing badly against the Playstation and the signs are that they will.

Nintendo still have a number of tricks up its sleeve its biggest risk is they are only in one market if the bottom fell of the Wii for example it would put them in a very difficult position. Which is why I believe they will be ready to launch with a new HD console the moment that happens.

I think that the chance of Slim/Price pushing PS3 way ahead of 360 are, well, slim.

I think that the chance it puts PS3 a little ahead of 360 or roughly even by end of gen are pretty good

I think that the slim/price change will definitely see a sustained increase in demand.

I think that the slim/price plus FF and GT in Japan will see the console leave the 360 far behind over next 12 months there.

I think it's fairly likely the slim/price will give PS3 the edge in Others vs 360 over time, particularly when GT finally lands, GoW3, etc.

I think 360 will remain dominant choice for many US gamers.

I think the MS price cut and secure supply of games, plus its huge acceptance in US, will keep it on track overall.

I think it will also do well in Others even though it will slip very slowly behind PS3 by the end of the gen.

I think it will continue roughly as is in Japan but will struggle, unless inordinate amounts of effort are made (either by selling the console at a silly price, or paying for excessive levels of RPGS, etc.) to gain much further traction in terms of increasing base weekly demand.

There are a lot of variables involved, and they vary by market of course, which is part of the fun, but I could see this going in lots of different directions.

In the end though, I think the core elements of this gen are looking more fixed - big comeback by Nintendo whatever happens, great improvement by MS vs Xbox and definate wobble, by Sony, stabilized somewhat during the gen.

Still, next year when Natal and the Wand hit we can watch everything go back up in the air again (maybe).

@Reasonable

Thoughtful assessment. I think I agree with all of your points.

The only point I would question is what will end up as the dominant choice for US gamers. If the install base catches up it will be interesting to see which console sells more for multi-platform games.

Even if the slim/price cut does wonders, Sony has lost the 'battle' for the US gamers

I agree, US is really the toughest to call but the most interesting to watch and try and guess.

In Japan MS poured in money, effort and got a result, but their console/brand is still miles behind Sony and Nintendo so the big focus there is PS3/Wii.

In Others Wii remains dominant but it's been kind of neck and neck woth 360/PS3 in simple terms but PS3 clearly ahead when you factor in 360 has 2 additional holiday seasons and 15 month sales head start.  MS can make moves to hold of PS3, but probably in the end PS3 will pass it.

In US, well, adoption of 360 has been stellar while PS3 has been lackluster, price has always been a huge issue, and things have just got interesting.

What if..... What if the world ends tomorrow, then who gives a fuck about Sony, MS and Nintendo!! I hate WHAT IF'S.. Hey welshbloke I have a what if, what if your mom didn't get boned by the mail man. Who knows maybe you wouldn't even exist, ehhh.

^^
You're on a site tracking console sales stats and two of the three consoles have had price cuts - I'd expect 'what if's' to abound. Avoid them if you don't like them, but there's no need for the insults.

Wow, that's very funny what u said.

By the way, Sony is not gonna be doomed. Microsoft is the one in a delicate situation

I pretty much look at 1 thing and thats year over year sales. If they are in decline, the console is having problems or its end of life (like ps2). If the PS3 does not see a good long period of at least +10% YOY gains, then it didn't have the effect SONY wanted. That said, id shudder to think the sales without the price cut (probably greater than -10% YOY losses).

If the price drop plus the slim don't work then SONY should just focus on getting games out. If they pump lots of great games over the next 5 years they might still not reach 1st or 2nd place, but they can at least be profitable until they release PS4. And Obviously they are working on a PS4, I wouldn't release it early (that would mean a high price console again and that will fail hard), focus on making that cost effective (max $349 launch, $299 would rock our socks off).

We _are_ currently in a recession. SONY isn't the only one suffering from lower YOY sales, it just happens that SONY is suffering worse because they are in third place and have been highest price for too long. Nintendo is the only one at this point who I think needs to do something soonish or they are going to continue to see YOY declines in the face of MS/SONY YOY increases.